This article is part of our NBA Picks series.
The cloud from the NBA Trade Deadline has more or less lifted, giving us a solid view of possible prop bets for the foreseeable future. It seems once again DraftKings has opted to disincentive any major assist/rebound props, so we'll once again turn to points props for our focus across this 10-game slate. A reminder, especially considering a number of suggestions for this edition were made with the premise that the odds are relatively nice for the prop bet, my favorite bets will always be the ones suggested in the Best Bets section. I want to try and provide as many potential options for bettors to consider, but there will always be bets that I tend to prefer more than others.
Points Props
We'll start with The Reunion, Part 2 as James Harden faces off against his former team. Over 27.5 points (-118) is a significant number, but especially against the Rockets, and with Harden's self-proclaimed MVP push in full force, I think it's entirely possible he hits this figure. The last time these two teams played, Harden scored 29 points across 41 minutes, but the Rockets hadn't entirely begun the descent into full tank mode at that point, so just understand this is more of a narrative bet than anything else.
Moving over to a bet I rarely look at, consider taking over 2.5 made threes (-113) for Jayson Tatum. If Jaylen Brown (hip) were unavailable for this contest I'd feel even better about the over, but even still Tatum is averaging 2.8 made threes per game and figures to be in a competitive battle against the Mavericks. The All-Star forward made three attempts from deep the last time these two teams played against one another (on 10 attempts), and I'd rather target this over as opposed to his straight-up points prop (o/u 24.5) because his proficiency from beyond the arc doesn't necessarily preclude hitting the over on points.
I'm a bit surprised we can get this bet for plus money, so readers should absolutely consider taking over 10.5 points for Jakob Poeltl (+100). Poeltl is averaging 16.0 points over the last three games, including 17 points against these very same Kings on Monday, but he's also playing more, averaging nearly 29 minutes per game since the beginning of February. The Kings are horrendously bad on the glass against centers which should afford Poeltl plenty of put-back opportunities for easy points.
We'll round out the points section with two props from the same game. From an odds perspective, under 17.5 points (+100) for Mike Conley makes a lot of sense. Everyone knows the Jazz are good at stopping opposing point guards, but the Grizzlies sneakily allow the fifth-fewest points to the position in the league, and Conley is just coming back from a hamstring injury that limited him to 26 minutes Monday. Considering he scored just five points against this very same opponent only a week ago, the value is certainly there.
In a similar vein, look to target under 16.5 points for Jonas Valanciunas (-127). The big man combined for just 27 points against the Jazz in two games last week, yet somehow has an o/u near his 16.5-point season average. Unfortunately, the PRA total is still in play given Valanciunas' dominance on the glass which means we can't really get better odds, but this is a nice figure regardless.
Rebounds/Assists Props
Both from a rebounds perspective and total PRA, take advantage of the line on Robert Covington. The points over is certainly in range considering the Pistons all the second-most points to power forwards, as well as over 6.5 rebounds (-143) for similar reasons, but combining the two for a paltry 17.5 points/rebounds/assists total (over -117) gives you a safer floor of production for the odds in the event the Trail Blazers do blow out the Pistons.
Otherwise, we're left with a couple of possible plus-odds picks. I'm intrigued by Ja Morant's under 3.5 rebounds (+110) mainly because of the odds, but also because the Jazz allow the fourth-fewest rebounds to opposing PGs in the league. The electric guard only recorded one rebound the last time these two teams played, but he did get four the game prior when the divisional matchup was a lot closer, so be warned.
While the Knicks have continued to grind away at their opponents, RJ Barrett has quietly emerged as a multi-faceted offensive option. Over the last five games the second-year forward is averaging five assists per game, putting his over in that category (3.5 assists, +125) well in play. It's not like Barrett is at risk of losing playing time, and Vegas seems to think this contest against the struggling Timberwolves will be close for some reason so I like the gamble when you're talking about such a nice odds boost.
Best Bets
- Jayson Tatum over 2.5 made threes (-113)
- Jakob Poeltl over 10.5 points (+100)
- Robert Covington over 17.5 points/rebounds/assists (-117)
