This article is part of our NBA Picks series.
We're about a week away from the trade deadline complicating any sort of prop bets. With a 10-game slate Wednesday, this should be a perfect time to take advantage of some recent trends while avoiding teams surprisingly sitting potential trade options, although at least as of this writing three of the matchups have been removed from the slate due to various player injuries.
Points Props
I'm feeling a bit cautious about taking the over, but considering Brook Lopez's recent trend, I'm begrudgingly taking over 11.5 points (-134). The combination of Dwight Howard and Tony Bradley isn't a "bad" defensive combo, but it's no Joel Embiid and I think Lopez should continue to stay involved in the team's offense after eight straight games with double-digit points.
For whatever reason, Denver vs. Charlotte sure seemed to provide the best odds of the slate. The clown car of a game between the Kings and Wizards will rightfully have the highest O/U, but the initially aforementioned matchup is quickly in the same range of Golden State/Houston which I think reinforces the idea this could be an offensive battle.
Starting first is the over when it comes to Will Barton's 14.5 figure (-103). The veteran forward has been on a roll as of late scoring at least 14 points in each of the last seven games. Most of that production has come by way of the three-ball, as Barton is averaging just under six attempts from deep per game over that stretch. The fact he's hit just over 50 percent of those is a nice bonus, but particularly against a Hornets defense that is susceptible to shots from beyond the arc, I think Barton would have to have an uncharacteristically bad night from deep in order to miss this figure.
For similar reasons, I also like over 16.5 points for Michael Porter (-110). Much like Jerami Grant earlier in the season, we know we can target mid-tier points props for forwards, particularly an aggressive scorer such as Porter. The 22-year-old obviously gives you zilch when it comes to assists which rules out a cumulative PRA (points/rebounds/assists) bet, but you could consider betting a double-double option (+170) if you do think the rebounding total is in play. For what it's worth, Porter has gone over this point total seven times in the last eight games.
We'll end with a bet that I always feel squeamish about, taking the under on an already low point total. That being said, Maxi Kleber played 36 minutes against the Clippers two nights ago and scored just three points, so grabbing under 7.5 (-120) sounds about right. Kleber has had a few double-digit outings in the past month, but it's mainly come from his production from beyond the arc. The Clippers allow the second-fewest 3-points to opposing power forwards in the league which should take away the Over threat.
Rebounds/Assists Props
Might as well continue stacking the Nuggets train on this side of the prop-bet equator. Regardless of whether Porter or Barton hit their overs, I do believe Jamal Murray will be in a prime position to hit his 5.5-assist over (-110). Obviously, Nikola Jokic has been an excellent facilitator for the Nuggets offense, but the Hornets allow almost 10 assists per game to point guards which is easily the highest in the NBA. It'll probably be close to this market, but considering how much Murray has been playing this season, I think it's a lock.
Just simply from an odds perspective, consider targeting under 3.5 assists for Derrick White (+125). The Bulls are generally susceptible down low, but with LaMarcus Aldridge (personal) out, I'm not really sure if a pick-and-roll offense featuring Keldon Johnson will really yield a ton of assists. White's averaging just 3.3 assists this season to boot, so to get these kinds of odds I think you have to consider it.
Our Handicapping the NBA: Wednesday edition was essentially a Richaun Holmes feature so I'll just say this: parlay his double-double (-190) odds with "something" and I think it'll return value. I tried to make a specific parlay in last week's piece and it failed which is making me gun-shy, but this should present a decent bit of odds on any other bet you feel comfortable taking.
Best Bets
- Jamal Murray over 5.5 assists (-110)
- Richaun Holmes double-double (-190)
- Maxi Kleber under 7.5 points (-120)
