This article is part of our NBA Picks series.
We've got an incredible four-game slate for Tuesday. I like a few props for today's slate. One prop is a points prop, two are assists props, and two are rebounds props. Before we dive into things, I'd like to share that I don't place bets unless I believe they likely cash and have perceived value. What do I mean when I say 'perceived value'? I do research and find statistics that back up the stance I am willing to take when making these bets. For all the bets I mention in this article, I put 1 unit (1% of my betting bankroll) each. Let's discuss!
Points Props
The first game we will focus on is a game between the Phoenix Suns and the Atlanta Hawks. Trae Young is a very likable and talented NBA player. However, Tuesday's matchup against the Suns is a difficult one on paper for the stud.
Phoenix is number five in the NBA in defensive efficiency and plays at the 28th slowest pace, making it difficult for opposing teams to score as frequently as their seasonal average. The Suns are also fourth-best in the NBA in opposing field goal percentage and seventh-best in opposing three-point field goal percentage. Young is comfortable taking shots at a distance as he's attempted at least six field goals from beyond the arc in the last six games. The UNDER 24.5 points (-115) for Young on Tuesday against the stout Phoenix defense makes sense with these circumstances.
Rebounds and Assists Props
Sticking with the Suns versus Hawks game, we look over to the opposite side of the ball to the six-point home favorite, Phoenix Suns, who have won five of their last six games. Devin Booker to go UNDER 5.5 assists (-159) seems like a solid spot to target as the Hawks are tied for second in the NBA in the fewest assists allowed to opposing shooting guards with 3.9.
Switching on over to the game between the Denver Nuggets versus the Philidelphia 76ers, the Nikola Jokic UNDER 8.5 assists (-139) prop is intriguing statistically. Philadelphia allows 3.5 assists per game to opposing centers, are sixth in opposing field goal percentage, and fourth in opposing three-point field goal percentage. Though Jokic is a great ball distributor, the 76ers' defense is difficult to score against. Jokic's recent success may make the OVER 8.5 assists prop seem like the most likely outcome. However, the statistics per this matchup suggest otherwise.
On the same side of the ball in this same game, the Will Barton to go OVER 3.5 rebounds (-150) prop is fascinating. The 76ers are without their star big man, Joel Embiid, tonight, who averages 11.5 rebounds per game, so I trust there will be more rebounds to grab for players like Barton. Also, Philidelphia allows 6.2 rebounds per game to opposing shooting guards and 8.3 rebounds to opposing small forwards, 23rd in the NBA. Barton alternates between the shooting guard and small forward position. I trust he will have enough rebounding opportunities to go over this prop.
Lastly, let's jump to the first game on the slate between the Charlotte Hornets and the Washington Wizards, which holds the highest total projected points with 228.5. Firstly, the Wizards play at the fastest pace in the NBA by a decent margin, so their games typically produce many field goal attempts, which implies more rebounding opportunities. Washington is 26th in offensive rebounding percentage allowed and 23rd in defensive rebounding percentage allowed. The Wizards also allow 6.9 rebounds per game to opposing point guards and 6.4 rebounds per game to opposing shooting guards, which are the two positions Devonte' Graham alternates. Devonte' Graham OVER 2.5 rebounds (-143) is a viable prop to consider per these statistics.
