This article is part of our NBA Picks series.
We have a fantastic seven-game slate for Thursday. I like a few props for today's slate. Two are points props, and six are rebounds props. Before we dive into things, I'd like to share that I don't place bets unless I believe they likely cash and have perceived value. What do I mean when I say 'perceived value'? I do research and find statistics that back up the stance I am willing to take when making these bets. For all the props I mention in this article, I put 1 unit (1% of my betting bankroll) each as I choose to take chances like these responsibly. Let's discuss!
Points Props
First, let's hone in on the game that features the Los Angeles Lakers and the Miami Heat, which has the lowest projected points on the slate by far with 204.5. The Lakers are the best team in the NBA in defensive efficiency, fifth-best in opposing field goal percentage, and allow 18.8 points per game to opposing small forwards, which are the fifth-best in the NBA. This seems like a spot where Jimmy Butler could go UNDER 20.5 points (-125). Los Angeles also allows the fourth-fewest points to opposing power forwards. Trevor Ariza to go UNDER 7.5 points looks like an attractive target.
Rebounds Props
Sticking with the contest between the Heat and Lakers but on the other side, the Lakers have Andre Drummond and Kyle Kuzma listed as probable. Miami is 19th in the NBA in total rebounding percentage and 29th in offensive rebounding percentage. Not only that but the Heat yield 10.4 rebounds per game to opposing power forwards. These statistics look like a good spot for Kyle Kuzma to go OVER 5.5 rebounds (-143).
A teammate of Kuzma's who alternates between the power forward and the center position is Markieff Morris, who's grabbed at least six rebounds in four of his past performances. The Heat allows 14.9 rebounds per game to opposing centers. With that, Markieff Morris' OVER 5.5 rebounds prop is eye-catching.
The other early game on this slate features the Chicago Bulls traveling to Toronto to play the Raptors. Chicago is a -162 favorite on the Moneyline and will look to extend their win streak to three with a win Thursday. Playing for Chicago is Patrick Williams, who's seen at least 30 minutes in five straight games. The Raptors are 28th in total rebounding percentage in the NBA while allowing 8.4 rebounds to opposing small forwards per game (tied for 23rd in the NBA) and 11.1 rebounds to opposing power forwards per game (24th in the NBA). Both teams are top 12 in the NBA in pace, so there could be many field goal opportunities. Thus, creating more rebounding potential. This matchup makes sense for Patrick Williams to go OVER 4.5 Rebounds (-113)
Next, we move over to one of the late games as the 7.5-point home favorite Sacramento Kings host the Detroit Pistons. Detroit is 20th in rebounding efficiency overall and allows 8.0 rebounds per game to opposing small forwards. These factors make for an excellent recipe for Buddy Hield to go OVER 3.5 Rebounds (-159). The Pistons allow 6.6 rebounds per game to opposing point guards, which ranks 22nd in the NBA. De'Aaron Fox to go OVER 3.5 rebounds (-137) is statistically interesting. Lastly, Harrison Barnes to go OVER 6.5 rebounds (-139) is a viable target considering Detroit allows 10.6 rebounds per game to opposing power forwards.
