This article is part of our NBA Picks series.
We've got a beautiful seven-game slate for Thursday. I like a few props for today's slate. One is an assists prop, and the other seven are rebounds props. Before we dive into things, I'd like to share that I don't place bets unless I believe they likely cash and have perceived value. What do I mean when I say 'perceived value'? I do research and find statistics that back up the stance I am willing to take when making these bets. For all the bets I mention in this article, I put 1 unit (1% of my betting bankroll) each. Let's discuss!
Rebounds and Assists Props
To start us off, let's hone in on the game between the Philadelphia 76ers and the Cleveland Cavaliers. Despite being on the road and superstar Joel Embiid being absent for tonight's contest, the 76ers are 10 point favorites (the largest on the slate). Partly due to Embiid, who's averaging 11.5 rebounds per game, missing this contest, some over rebounds props for this game are in play. Darius Garland to go OVER 2.5 rebounds (-134) is intriguing because the 76ers allow 5.9 rebounds per game to opposing point guards and play at the seventh-fastest pace in the NBA, so there's likely to be many rebounding opportunities for players like Garland.
On the other side of the matchup, Ben Simmons to go OVER 7.5 rebounds (-134) has its perks as the Cavaliers are 28th in the NBA in total rebounding percentage. Sticking with the Sixers, Tobias Harris to go OVER 7.5 rebounds (-113) seems like a solid spot. Cleveland is 21st in the NBA in rebounds allowed to opposing power forwards per game with 10.6.
Let's now focus on the game between the Golden State Warriors and Miami Heat, the game where half of the props in this article reside. If you've been reading these articles, you know that the Heat's defensive statistics are stellar. However, the area of weakness has been their defensive rebounding percentage which ranks 26th in the NBA. Miami allows 15.1 rebounds per game to opposing centers. This seems like an excellent recipe for James Wiseman to go OVER 6.5 rebounds (+100).
Miami allows 7.2 rebounds per game to opposing small forwards and 10.3 rebounds per game to opposing power forwards, which are Kelly Oubre Jr.'s positions. The statistics suggest Oubre Jr. is likely to go OVER 5.5 rebounds (-113). Another teammate who plays power forward and center is Draymond Green. Green to go OVER 6.5 rebounds (-118) is fascinating with these circumstances. If you haven't had enough Warriors over rebounds props, there's one more that statistically makes sense, and it's Andrew Wiggins to go OVER 4.5 rebounds (-113). Wiggins alternates between the small forward and shooting guard positions. The Heat allows 6.1 rebounds per game to opposing shooting guards.
Lastly, we move over to the slate's final game between the Denver Nuggets and the Los Angeles Clippers. Nikola Jokic UNDER 8.5 assists (-137) looks good considering the Clippers are 26th in the NBA in pace and allow just 3.6 assists per game to opposing centers.
