This article is part of our NBA Picks series.
We've finally made it to the playoffs. Four series are set to kick off Saturday with the action starting at 2:10 PM ET, so don't slack if you're looking at some of these earlier games. While our parlay-builder article ultimately was a great success to round out the regular season, DraftKings is offering a bevy of prop bets for this slate making the aforementioned breakdown format obsolete. That being said, I think there's room to at least include a couple of parlay builder options without going into too much additional detail, so consider that a staple moving forward.
Points Props
Perhaps it's just my fandom taking over, but I'd argue one of Saturday's most significant plot points will be whether Giannis Antetokounmpo can erase the narrative that Miami has figured out the two-time MVP. I'm definitely willing to bet the Heat's defense once again will put the clamps on Giannis, particularly when the over/under sits at 29.5 points (under, -120). After all, the Greek Freak only averaged 16.7 points in their three meetings this year, and he was held to just 21.8 points across four games in last year's infamous Eastern Conference Semifinals. You never want to bet against a talent like Giannis particularly in what would amount to a huge statement game this postseason, but it doesn't take much imagination to see a way in which Giannis skates under this figure.
The Trail Blazers finally seem to be getting healthy at the right time and I think a natural byproduct of that will see Robert Covington sink more into his defensive-specialist role. He's probably still going to see 30-plus minutes, especially in this matchup where the depleted Nuggets will be forced to trot out a bunch of large bodies like Aaron Gordon and Michael Porter as combo forwards for most of the series, but given the type of scorers Portland now has its disposal, there's really no reason for Covington to need to get involved offensively. Under 7.5 points (-110) makes a whole lot of sense, particularly since he's gone under that figure five of the last six games.
On the flip side, Denver absolutely needs a secondary scorer to boost Nikola Jokic and Porter. Enter Gordon, who scored 12 points despite shooting just 4-of-11 from the field the last time these two teams played a meaningful contest against one another (ignore last Sunday's contest, hardly anyone was actually playing on the side of Denver). I don't think Gordon is going to necessarily be able to create his own shot, but there will be enough attention directed to the aforementioned duo that the slippery cutter is going to be able to manufacture enough buckets to make over 10.5 points (-113) easily in play.
Rebounds/Assists Props
Make no mistake, this isn't the same Heat team that made it to the NBA Finals last season. Goran Dragic has taken a step back and the duo of Tyler Herro and Duncan Robinson haven't quite emerged the way many thought they would following last year's insane semifinal series. That being said the Bucks defense is still willfully allowing deep shoots, finishing the season with the second-worst 3-point defense in the league behind the lowly Timberwolves. That should mean Bam Adebayo will once again be involved as a passer after averaging 4.4 assists throughout last year's series and 7.3 dimes over the course of the three-game regular-season series. Give me over 5.5 assists (-113) for Bam in a particularly pivotal Game 1.
We, unfortunately, can't pick on the porous Rockets when it comes to rebound props, but thankfully we can still pivot to the Trail Blazers who allow the second-most boards to opposing backcourts in the entire NBA. Facundo Campazzo is averaging 4.7 rebounds per game over the course of May and tallied five boards against Portland back in late April when both teams were still playing their starters making over 3.5 rebounds (-132) one of the better bets from a value perspective on Saturday's slate.
I always try to find at least one prop bet that likely won't hit, but has enough promise from an odds perspective to at least mention. Assuming Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum are completely healthy -- and there's little reason to suspect otherwise -- the duo should dominate the ball throughout a given matchup, to the point where Norman Powell won't be much of a facilitator. For +142 odds, under 1.5 assists is an interesting line given Powell has dished out one or fewer assists in four of the last six games. Normally recent trends mean zilch towards the end of the regular season, but Portland has been playing for their playoff lives during that stretch so that data at least is noteworthy.
Parlay Builders
- BRO to win (vs. BOS) (-335)
- Clint Capela double-double (Sunday at NY) (-455)
- Jalen Brunson over 0.5 made threes (-220)
I feel less certain about Capela hitting a double-double than Vegas does, but he's recorded a double-double in 21 of the last 24 games including a dominant 25-point, 22-rebound contest against the Knicks back in late April. There are enough options for Saturday games that I didn't point out any Sunday props in the previous spaces, but when you're looking to grab some parlay pieces to mix and match, this one is worth identifying.
Best Bets
- Jalen Brunson over 0.5 made threes (-220)
- Giannis Antetokounmpo under 29.5 points (-120)
- Facundo Campazzo over 3.5 rebounds (-132)
