This article is part of our NBA Picks series.
It just never seems possible to go perfect in the Best Bets department. Kudos to Anthony Edwards for once again emphasizing how important it is to never outwardly suggest something will occur no matter how confident you feel. I can't wait to break that rule again probably next week.
For the first time in what feels like forever, we have a Friday slate that offers just single-digit games; seven to be precise. With the exclusion of Nets/Celtics which rightfully didn't have any props as we await word on the status of Kevin Durant (thigh) (note: Durant has since been ruled out) and the Hawks -- who really could only be impacted by the health of Clint Capela (back) -- most of these contests present some sort of betting line. Although, the wealth of quality prop bets isn't exactly abundant, hence the couple of odd double-ups in the rebounds/assists section.
Points Props
It's kind of odd because theoretically every one of these bets I should "like" from an odds perspective but this slate had a couple of singles mixed in with some home-run props, to mix sports metaphors.
We'll start first with the dinky options like Davis Bertans over 14.5 points (-118). The power forward version of Buddy Hield, Bertans has scored over this total in each of the last three games thanks entirely to his three-point shooting. No Rui Hachimura (knee) should afford Bertans somewhere in the range of 28-32 minutes Friday, which is plenty considering the veteran forward dropped 21 points on the Thunder just four nights ago.
I'm wary about this since the line jumped up exponentially as I was writing the column, but over 7.5 points for Draymond Green (-125) is easily in play. Yes, Green did score a season-high 18 points when these two teams clashed two weeks ago, but more importantly for this context is that Michael Porter's sieve-like defense will once again be on full display. If you really wanted to leap into this prop, Green registering a double-double sits at +275, but he's simply been not as active as a passer with the return of Stephen Curry, and I doubt he gets the other end of the double-double in rebounds either.
Rounding out the "singles" section (Beyoncé is putting together a lawsuit as we speak) is a bet mentioned in the Handicapping the NBA section. From a pure statistical sense, Darius Garland should fall under 20.5 points (-127), even though he's become a more integral part of the Cavs' offense as of late.
For plus money, you can do a lot worse than Norman Powell over 18.5 points (+100). The Grizzlies allow the third-most points to opposing small forwards, and it's not like he's not scoring with Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum both on the floor (19.3 points on average over the last six games). Grayson Allen and Dillon Brooks figure to match up against the explosive aforementioned backcourt duo, which for no other reason, should present a few more scoring options for the ex-Raptor.
Rounding out the longball section, long-time readers know I hardly ever venture into this territory, but for +130 I'd consider over 2.5 made threes for Kendrick Nunn. We know Trae Young (ankle) will not play for the Hawks. During Young's two-game absence a little less than two weeks ago, Raptors point guard Malachi Flynn and Hornets point guard Terry Rozier combined to go 10-of-22 from deep. It's definitely a stretch considering Nunn is averaging just 5.8 attempted threes this season, but if Tyler Herro (foot) does end up missing this game, I think it's entirely likely Nunn gets closer to the 12 three-point attempts we saw Monday with the Kentucky product sidelined.
Rebounds/Assists Props
It's a bit surprising things worked out this way, but the best value in this section actually falls on two players already mentioned. For the less risk adverse, Nunn over 2.5 assists (-113) should be a fairly easy line, and certainly should be a strong pivot if Herro is eventually ruled active. Nunn has gone over 2.5 assists in six of the past seven games, and the Hawks don't really present a statistical reason why the trend should stop.
If Garland is held under his scoring total, I wouldn't be surprised if he makes up for it in the assist category. While you can't bet a same-game parlay on this site, targeting over 6.5 assists (+110) is a nice draw. Primarily because the Hornets seem to welcome three-point shooting, Charlotte is tied with two other teams for most assists allowed to opposing point guards. Not that Collin Sexton will necessarily hit his over, but he's the perfect type of sharp-shooting complement for this matchup, and Garland did reach seven assists the last time these two teams played.
Best Bets
- Draymond Green over 7.5 points
- Darius Garland under 20.5 points
- Kendrick Nunn over 2.5 assists
