This article is part of our NBA Picks series.
When you stink, you stink. Thanks to Malachi Flynn for stopping what would have been another dreadful 0-fer. If nothing else, this column is turning into a perfect place to fade some of my prop bets. As I always say, just doing what I can to help out the reader! And yes, I am just mentioning that to mask my own (growing) insecurities.
Friday's 11-game slate once again has plenty of options to choose from as each game has at least some prop option as of this writing. With a number of truly miserable teams facing off against one another, DraftKings has been forced into providing a couple of prop options that we normally don't get which will hopefully help in the quest for a turnaround. A shocking 10 games will all tip-off at, or before, 8 PM ET, so if you're like me and perhaps paying far too much attention to MLB The Show 21, or some other form of time-wasting, consider this your warning.
Points Props
I rarely try to recommend these types of bets -- if it's going to hit, there shouldn't need to be a qualifier -- but I'd target under 13.5 points for Reggie Jackson (-113) if Kawhi Leonard (foot) plays. The 76ers have plenty of solid perimeter defenders and I think the scoring onus will ultimately fall on Leonard and Paul George in a pretty critical game for both teams. In the last four games with both stars healthy, Jackson has just one game with 13 or more points.
We tried this type of bet at the beginning of April and it failed, but I feel a lot better about the situation given the return of Kevin Durant (hamstring). Joe Harris should make over 2.5 threes (-134) just given the fact the Hornets allow the second-most three-pointers per game in the entire league. By going with the made three-pointers instead of points over (13.5), we're essentially safeguarding our self if the over doesn't hit, but we're obviously sacrificing the better odds.
I'm dumbfounded on this one. The Nuggets allow the most points to opposing power forwards, Michael Porter is by all accounts healthy and Kelly Olynyk is averaging 18.4 points over the last seven games since he's been essentially made the starting power forward, and yet Olynyk's over/under sits at 13.5 points (over -113). The return of John Wall hasn't really hurt Olynyk either, as the ex-Raptor is attempting 13 shots per game over the last three contests.
It's not often we get to take advantage of the Heat's excellent defense against opposing point guards, so I'll gladly jump at the opportunity to take under 17.5 points for D'Angelo Russell (-103) especially given his continued minutes restriction. Obviously, Russell has the ability to go off against any opponent, but I don't see a way in which both the 2015 No. 2 overall pick and the current No. 1 overall pick each hit their over (Anthony Edwards under 21.5 points -121).
Rebounds/Assists
I'll be honest, I sorta just want some action in what should be a laughably bad game between the Pistons and Thunder. None of the points props really made sense, but I do think you could target Luguentz Dort under 4.5 rebounds (-125). The Pistons actually allow the third-fewest rebounds to opposing shooting guards, and while I don't think it's necessarily intentional, it would be relatively surprising to see Dort jump his season average (3.6) so significantly given the matchup. Of course, that season average largely doesn't take into account Dort's time as a starter, so it's by no means a lock.
Considering the odds, I think this bet is worthy of Best Bets distinction. Every time we catch a Rockets game on the slate there's always the opportunity to get a rebound bet in. In this case, I'm taking Michael Porter to record a double-double (+110). We know he'll get the points, so it's just a matter of picking up double-digit rebounds for the fifth time in the past six games. My esteemed colleague Alex Barutha seems to think Nikola Jokic will be dominant Friday, and while that might be the case, I still think Porter has plenty of room to record a double-double given the matchup.
Best Bets
- Kelly Olynyk over 13.5 points (-113)
- D'Angelo Russell under 17.5 points (-103)
- Michael Porter to record double-double (+110)
