This article is part of our NBA Picks series.
We've got a fantastic ten-game slate for Friday. I like a few props for today's slate. One is a points prop, and the other seven are rebounds props. Before we dive into things, I'd like to share that I don't place bets unless I believe they likely cash and have perceived value. What do I mean when I say 'perceived value'? I do research and find statistics that back up the stance I am willing to take when making these bets. For all the props I mention in this article, I put 1 unit (1% of my betting bankroll) each. Let's discuss!
Points Props
The first game we'll look at takes place in Madison Square Garden as the New York Knicks host the Dallas Mavericks. The Knicks are the best in the NBA in terms of opposing field goal percentages and 3 point field goal percentages. Not only that, but New York is also fourth in defensive efficiency and plays at the third slowest pace in the NBA.
Regarding opposing point guards, the Knicks are stout at defending them, allowing 22.8 points per game, the fourth-best in the NBA. Luka Donic is a phenomenal talent, but this matchup with the Knicks is a difficult one on paper for him to produce higher points total than his seasonal average in points. The statistics favor Luka Doncic to go UNDER 27.5 points (-113).
Rebounds and Assists Props
Now let's focus on the game between the Charlotte Hornets and the home favorite (-4) Indiana Pacers. The Hornets are 27th in the NBA in opposing rebounds allowed per game to centers with 16.3. Also, Charlotte is 26th in the NBA in total rebounding percentage allowed. The numbers like Myles Turner to go OVER 6.5 rebounds (-143).
Moving over to the other 8 pm EST game of this slate, we have the Minnesota Timberwolves traveling to Memphis to take on the Grizzlies, where the total projected points sit at 230.5, the second-highest on the board. The Grizzlies play at the seventh-fastest pace in the NBA and allow 6.7 rebounds per game to opposing shooting guards, tied for 20th in the NBA. Malik Beasley is healthy, and the data likes him to go OVER 3.5 rebounds (-180).
Jumping over to the contest between the Oklahoma City Thunder and the Phoenix Suns, which features the most significant money line favorite on the slate as the Suns are -1115 to win this game. The Thunder are 29th in the NBA in defensive rebounding percentage allowed and allow 12.5 rebounds per game to opposing power forwards, 30th in the NBA. This looks like a great matchup for Jae Crowder to go OVER 4.5 rebounds (-143).
Next, we hone in on the game between the Portland Trail Blazers and the Milwaukee Bucks, which has the highest projected total points on the slate with 239. Like we discussed with the Heat in Thursday's piece, the Bucks are stellar on defense, but they allow too many rebounding opportunities. Milwaukee allows 14.3 rebounds per game to opposing centers and 9.9 rebounds per game to opposing power forwards while playing at the NBA's third-fastest pace. This seems like a solid spot for Robert Covington to go OVER 6.5 rebounds (-139).
Sticking with the Trail Blazers, CJ McCollum to go OVER 3.5 rebounds (-139) is intriguing considering Milwaukee allows 6.9 rebounds per game to opposing shooting guards, which is tied for 22nd in the NBA.
In the same game but on the opposite side of the court, Brook Lopez to go OVER 4.5 rebounds (-127) is interesting, considering the Trail Blazers are 23rd in the NBA in total rebounding percentage and allow 12.9 rebounds per game to opposing centers.
Finally, we look over to the game that features two teams from the west coast as the Los Angeles Lakers travel to Sacramento to take on the Kings. The Lakers will be without LeBron James, Andre Drummond, and Anthony Davis, creating more rebounding opportunities for healthy teammates. The Kings are 29th in the NBA in total rebounding percentage and allow ten rebounds per game to opposing power forwards. These are extraordinary circumstances for Markieff Morris to go OVER 6.5 rebounds (+117).
