This article is part of our NBA Picks series.
What a wild and historic trade deadline. While the chaos made for an entertaining Thursday, it's also made for a difficult-to-manage Friday betting slate that features two games (Heat vs. Hornets, Magic vs. Trail Blazers) completely removed due to various players still shuttling to their respective new homes. While we still have eight other games to pick from (as of this writing, Pacers vs. Mavericks was not an option due to Luka Doncic's game-time status), readers will notice this rundown is completely free of any rebound/assist props. Simply put, the sportsbook definitely have the squeeze out Friday, so in order to avoid any potential close calls, I'm focusing strictly on the bets that provide the most value. In this case, I steered toward points props.
Points Props
I mentioned it in Friday's staff picks so I'll refrain from expounding too much more, just know that taking Steven Adams under 8.5 points (-113) presents a nice bit of value given the Nuggets' defensive strengths.
Sticking with the low-scoring theme, I'm also targeting under 18.5 points for Ja Morant (-120). The Jazz, one of the few teams not to make any noticeable changes at the deadline, have been terrific defensively against opposing point guards, likely because Ruby Gobert acts as a massive detriment for any guards thinking about attacking the paint. The star Grizzlies guard has started to build on his enormous second-year potential after a slow start to the season, but relying heavily on his ability to get to the rim, Morant's attempting only 3.6 shots from deep and making a paltry 22.9 percent of his three-point attempts this season. The clash of styles should lean the way of the Jazz, making the under a nice option for prospective bettors.
Most people assumed Dennis Schroder would vacuum up the majority of the additional shots with LeBron James (ankle) and Anthony Davis (calf) both on the shelf for multiple weeks, and while it's partly true, the real answer seems to Kyle Kuzma who is averaging seven more attempts than his season average in the last three games with James sidelined. That easily puts the fourth-year forward in play for his over (over 18.5 points, -125), despite a shockingly-low 208.5 total game o/u.
I'm not sure I feel as confident about this as the other aforementioned bets because of the rookie's inconsistencies but, just based on the statistics, Anthony Edwards should be in play to score over 23.5 points (-113). The Rockets allow the most points to opposing shooting guards in the entire NBA and that was before they traded away arguably their best backcourt defender in Victor Oladipo. What's more, they likely could be without as many as six players for Friday's contest. Especially as the Timberwolves attempt to force-feed Edwards a Rookie of the Year award, this over is easily within the realm of possibility.
Best Bets
- Steven Adams under 8.5 points (-113)
- Ja Morant under 18.5 points (-120)
