This article is part of our DraftKings NBA series.
Slate Overview
WAS vs. MEM (-3), O/U: 238
SA vs. DAL (-4.5), O/U: 222.5
Wednesday's DraftKings NBA slate tips off at 8:00 p.m. EST and includes two games. Grayson Allen (concussion) will miss his fourth consecutive game. The Spurs will have a healthy allotment of bodies again after everyone, except Devin Vassell, cleared the league's health and safety protocols.
The MEM-WAS matchup is the more appealing target of the two games. It should be considerably faster-paced, as evidenced by the 15.5 difference in point totals. Russell Westbrook and Bradley Beal are appealing spend-up options, while Ja Morant and Jonas Valanciunas will be popular mid-range plays. There are also cheap options on both sides to take some shots on. The SA-DAL matchup is one that I would fade on most nights, but we don't have that option on a two-game slate. The Spurs are difficult to project tonight now that they are fully healthy for the first time in a while. It would make sense to decide who to play based on projected ownership, as finding potential leverage is more important than trying to figure out which marginal play has the highest median projection.
Injuries to Monitor
Grayson Allen (concussion): OUT
Allen will miss his fourth consecutive game tonight. De'Anthony Melton ($4,600), Desmond Bane ($4,000) and Justise Winslow ($3,900) have seen increased roles in his absence.
Devin Vassell (COVID-19 protocols): OUT
Vassell will miss his sixth consecutive game as he remains in the league's health and safety protocols. Lonnie Walker ($4,900) and Patty Mills ($4,500) have been seeing most of the minutes at shooting guard, while Derrick White ($5,000) is expected to play tonight for the first time in nearly a month.
Elite Players
Luka Doncic ($10,700)
Doncic is the most expensive player on the slate. He has scored at least 60 DK points in six of his last 10 games and projects for the most raw points tonight. I'd expect him to be popular on such a small slate, but I don't think this is a spot to jam him in. The lack of cheap value makes it difficult to spend all the way up in multiple spots, and the DAL-SA matchup will be considerably slower-paced than the WAS-MEM game.
Russell Westbrook ($10,100)
Westbrook is $600 cheaper than Doncic and has a more favorable matchup as the WAS-MEM game has a 238 total. He has seen at least 36 minutes in three consecutive games and has put up at least 60 DK points in four of his last eight. He's my preferred spend-up option at point guard tonight based on the cost savings and a plus matchup.
Bradley Beal ($9,400)
Beal stands alone at shooting guard. His salary is $3,700 more than the second most expensive option in Jalen Brunson ($5,700). He has scored at least 50 DK points in three of the last four games, and if he has a big game tonight, he's likely to be optimal due to do the positional scarcity. I'd expect him to be popular, and rightfully so.
Kristaps Porzingis ($8,600)
Porzingis is the only spend-up option at center. He has recorded double-doubles in consecutive games while seeing at least 33 minutes in each. It's possible he could go somewhat overlooked tonight with the elite spend-up options at guard and the WAS-MEM matchup likely to be a popular target. Porzingis always has the upside to be the slate's highest scorer, but it's more likely to happen on small slates, and I'll have more interest if he isn't going to be as popular.
Expected Chalk
Ja Morant ($7,800)
The Grizzlies have the highest implied team total by seven points tonight. Morant is coming off consecutive games of 51.5 and 58.75 DK points. With the lack of appealing cheap value, I'd expect a more balanced build to be popular, and Morant stands out amongst the mid-range options.
Jonas Valanciunas ($7,200)
The center position is scarce tonight. Valanciunas has a better matchup and is considerably cheaper than Kristaps Porzingis ($8,600). He's topped 40 DK points in two of his last five games and makes sense in a balanced style build that I expect will be popular.
Value Picks
Dillon Brooks ($5,400)
Shooting guard is particularly scarce tonight. Brooks put up 50.5 DK points last time out and should continue to see plenty of minutes with Grayson Allen (concussion) still sidelined.
Derrick White ($5,000)
White hasn't played since Feb. 14 but is expected to return tonight after clearing the league's health and safety protocols. Minutes and rotations are difficult to predict for the Spurs now that they are fully healthy, but White has upside for his salary, even in limited minutes.
Josh Richardson ($4,900)
There isn't much for value tonight, making Richardson a relatively safe option, though he generally lacks upside. He's averaging just over 30 minutes per game in his last 10 while scoring over 30 DK points three times in the same span.
Justise Winslow ($3,900)
Winslow has seen at least 20 minutes in each of six games since making his season debut on Feb. 20. Grayson Allen (concussion) will miss a fourth consecutive game tonight, and the Grizzlies have a favorable matchup against the Wizards.
Deni Avdija ($3,100)
Avdija has played at least 20 minutes in four of the past five games. There isn't much for cheap value tonight, making him a relatively appealing option in that salary range.
