DraftKings NBA: Thursday Cheat Sheet

This article is part of our DraftKings NBA series.

A slate full of Game 2s is upon us, and during the playoffs, I like to take advantage of the identical slates and see hope people navigated a GPP contest for a winning lineup.  Here are the results from one of Tuesday's major GPPs.

TOTAL: 364.25

This lineup is a perfect example of how contrarian thinking can influence your bottom line. This Orlando-based build was from an MME player, and it banked on a great night from the Magic.  While I had a piece of Fultz, Ross and Dragic in my cash lineups, I mostly stayed away from the opening game for pivot purposes.  The difference-maker here was Vucevic with the lowest rostership. You have to assume that the Bucks will make some adjustments for Orlando and play with a little more hustle, and some of these Magic players have salary boosts that make them less palatable.

SLATE OVERVIEW

TARGETED GAMES IN BOLD, FADED GAMES IN ITALIC

MIA vs. IND (+4) O/U: 214

OKC vs. HOU (-3) O/U: 226.5

ORL vs. MIL (-12.5) O/U: 227

POR vs. LAL (-6.5) O/U: 228.5

[Odds subject to change]

The biggest stories today are unmistakable -- can the Lakers and Bucks bounce back? While I think the Bucks will plug some holes and figure out where they went wrong with the Magic, I'm not as confident with the Lakers. Even LeBron James knows hat he can't carry the team alone and expect a miracle. The bottom line is that Anthony Davis needs to do more, and soon.  I still like this contest despite the 193 total two days ago because a lot of that output is focused on a few key individuals. The shootout potential for MIA/IND is also attractive.  Even though a certain bearded wonder did not make enough noise against the Thunder to hit the winning lineup, I'll still give myself exposure here, although the balanced Thunder turned out to be a head-scratcher.

INJURY SITUATIONS TO MONITOR

Russell Westbrook, HOU (quad) - OUT

Not too surprising, especially when you consider that the Rockets handled OKC handily without him.  It was Eric Gordon ($4,900) who did the most damage in Westbrook's absence and a quizzical boost from Jeff Green ($4,800), although that was mostly due to some frontcourt adjustments.

Aaron Gordon, ORL (hamstring) - QUESTIONABLE

It's still mind-boggling how Orlando manhandled the Bucks, especially with Gordon out of the lineup. The lack of intensity was evident for Milwaukee, and a wrinkle like Gordon would be another problem to account for if he plays today. Even if he plays, I would probably stay away due to a potential minute restriction.

Victor Oladipo, IND (eye) - QUESTIONABLE

I think Oladipo will play, barring any last-minute complications.  He seemed fine at practice Wednesday, and at his salary point, he could be a great value.  I would downgrade T.J. Warren somewhat if Oladipo takes the floor.

Jae Crowder, MIA (ankle) - QUESTIONABLE

Ankle sprains are no joke, and although I don't wish ill will on players, Crowder's absence would allow for a great contrarian move to Derrick Jones Jr. ($3,000), who is fresh off the injury report. He may find a spot in some lineups even if Crowder plays.

Zach Collins, POR (ankle) - OUT

We should see a bit more from Hassan Whiteside ($4,900), although it was Carmelo Anthony ($5,900) who seemed to thrive more with Collins sidelined.

ELITE PLAYERS

I think we have to discuss LeBron James ($10,900) first because, well, it's the playoffs.  James proved once again that Father Time takes a break when playoff time rolls around, and a triple-double should be no surprise from a guy who spent most of his career carrying squads to the finals. Success on Thursday depends on taking the right elites, and I think there's room for two if you hit the proper value plays.  I am confident that Anthony Davis ($10,500) will burn us all eventually, but I think he has zero business coming in a 10.5k. I think a James/____ stack may be the best method here, but the second player is a bit tougher. My gut says Giannis Antetokounmpo ($10,300) is the way to go because he must have a great game to even up this series. Another way is to roll with James and Nikola Vucevic ($8,800) so you can get a little bit of action in the 5k range. The Bucks have likely made adjustments to handle him, but I still think he could meet value here. You fade James Harden ($11,700) at your own peril, but he would need 60 DKFP to merit the cost. I have doubts that Harden is the right answer.

EXPECTED CHALK AND OTHER TARGETS

I'm noticing that there isn't a lot that I'm excited about in the 6k range, which is where this section usually lives.  I'll be dipping a bit below the median threshold today to identify more options. As previously mentioned, I think Eric Gordon, Jeff Green and Carmelo Anthony will all be chalky and appropriate for cash games.

Jimmy Butler, MIA ($7,900) vs. IND

Butler was good for 6x value in Game 1, and there's no reason why he can't push his number into the 45-plus DKFP range again on Thursday. Even if Butler lags in a specific category, he finds ways to make up for it elsewhere. His 25 percent usage rate is one of the best on the slate, especially at this price point.

Goran Dragic, MIL ($5,900) vs. IND

This is one of those play-or-pivot spots that you'll need to make early, but I feel that Kendrick Nunn's ($4,800) DNP-CD was an aberration, and if he's ready to play, we will see him in the starting lineup today.  If that's the case, you'll need to pivot off Dragic and go to Nunn.  Whoever occupies this spot will be in line for a lot of production, and Nunn's lower salary point will allow for some extra flexibility if he starts.

Steven Adams, OKC ($5,600) vs. HOU

Adams is a center that's at the right price point, and his cheap salary doesn't require him to do much to meet value.  I think some may shy from Adams due to thoughts about Houston's shot conversion rate, but even without Westbrook, there will be plenty of errant shots that Adams can snag. He snagged 12 boards in Game 1 and also shot well in the paint.

Also consider: Malcolm Brogdon, IND ($6,900) vs. MIA, Terrence Ross, ORL ($4,800) vs. MIL

KEY VALUES

As previously mentioned, I think Derrick Jones could be an excellent punt play in this range.

James Ennis III, ORL ($4,000) 

Ennis is easy to overlook, but he's been very consistent in the bubble. Even if Aaron Gordon plays, the potential minute restriction there still gives Ennis plenty of opportunities. Ennis' usage is unchanged with Gordon on the court during bubble play, and it's Markelle Fultz and Nikola Vucevic who saw usage decreases when he played.

Markelle Fultz, ORL ($4,500) vs. MIL

D.J. Augustin, ORL ($4,300) vs. MIL

They ran Fultz and Augustin together often during the bubble and in Game 1. Because of their price, they are going to be very prevalent if you're loading up on elites. Both guards are playing exceptionally well and crushing value on a nightly basis.  I would lean to Augustin if Gordon plays, and if Gordon stays out, I will lean to Fultz. This advice is based on the numbers and overall familiarity with Gordon. Augustin has a history and a better rhythm with their best player.

JaVale McGee, LAL ($3,100) vs. POR

With his rock-bottom salary and potentially low rostership, McGee should show up as an option if you're using a lineup tool and trying to fit the numbers.  He has a humongous task against Jusuf Nurkic, but he played reasonably well in Game 1 with eight rebounds.  We only need a little over 15 DKFP to justify the pick. He only played for 12 minutes against Portland, and that's full four minutes below his usual numbers. If that number stabilizes, he could be one of the slate's better values.

I heartily recommend our Advanced Lineup tool as your go-to spot before game lock. You'll be able to see confirmed lineups and a wealth of information, including usage rates for every player.  Best of luck!