This article is part of our DraftKings NBA series.
Slate Overview
Sunday brings us a seven-game NBA slate on DraftKings, and there is plenty to analyze. We thankfully know most of the injury news in advance, though there are still a couple of pieces of news we are waiting on.
Oklahoma City and Cleveland will tip the slate off at 7:00 p.m. EST, but the highest projected totals are all later contests.
Milwaukee and Sacramento offers the highest total at 238.0 and tips off last at 9:00 p.m. EST. The Bucks are favored by 10 points in this one, so beware of targeting too many Kings if you opt to look to this matchups.
The Clippers and Nets face off in the second-highest total on the slate at 236.0. This 8:00 p.m. EST tip should be a much closer encounter with Los Angeles favored by 6.5. I think we could see this being the best DFS game of the day, and it will certainly be highly targeted with Brooklyn's tendency to get into shootouts.
Finally, we have Denver and Atlanta at 7:30 p.m. EST with a 232.5 total and the Nuggets enter as 3-point favorites. I also like this contest from a DFS perspective because of the high total and quite a few players out for Denver that should open up value.
Let's go ahead and dive into the injuries, elite plays, expected chalk and value for the day.
Injury Situations to Monitor
Ben Simmons, PHI (illness)/Status: PROBABLE
Simmons was also listed as probable on Friday, but ended up being a late scratch. It looks like he is finally able to go after another couple of days to recover, but definitely monitor this situation.
Shake Milton would typically be a beneficiary of Simmons' absence and he is expected to make his return from an ankle injury. He's missed the past five games, so his minutes situation remains unclear. Matisse Thybulle has started in Simmons' place the past two.
Kyle Lowry, TOR (ankle)/Status: DOUBTFUL
Lowry is doubtful for the matchup against Philadelphia with an ankle injury. Norman Powell has started at shooting guard the past two games when Lowry was also out and has put up back-to-back 40-plus fantasy point performances.
Paul Millsap, DEN (knee) and JaMychal Green, DEN (shoulder)/Status: OUT
Millsap has missed the past four games, but Green is a new addition as he sustained his injury in Friday's victory against Cleveland. This should boost the usage of Michael Porter Jr. and could open up value with Zeke Nnaji.
Kevin Durant, BKN (hamstring)/Status: OUT
Durant remains out with no timetable to return, so look for James Harden and Kyrie Irving to soak up usage along with Joe Harris and Jeff Green.
Richaun Holmes, SAC (knee) and Harrison Barnes, SAC (foot)/Status: QUESTIONABLE
Holmes and Barnes were both listed as questionable Saturday and did not play. There has been no report yet as to their status for Sunday. Marvin Bagley III enjoyed a monster performance with both out against Chicago.
Delon Wright, DET (groin)/Status: DOUBTFUL
It looks like Wright is trending in the wrong direction to play Sunday. That should mean a bigger role for Dennis Smith Jr., who posted 23.5 fantasy points last game despite shooting 0-for-7.
Other notable injuries:
Andre Drummond, CLE (trade)/Status: OUT
George Hill, OKC (thumb)/Status: OUT
D'Angelo Russell, MIN (knee)/Status: OUT
Mitchell Robinson, NY (hand)/Status: OUT
Aaron Gordon, ORL (ankle)/Status: OUT
Cole Anthony, ORL (rib)/Status: OUT
Blake Griffin, DET (trade)/Status: OUT
Gary Harris, DEN (thigh)/Status: OUT
Jrue Holiday, MIL (health protocols)/Status: OUT
Elite Players
Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,000) comes in with the highest salary on today's slate, but for good reason. He's scored 65 or more fantasy points in five of his past six contests and faces a Sacramento defense that ranks among the league's worst. Nikola Jokic ($10,800) has also been on a tear of late, while James Harden ($10,600) should continue to shoulder a bigger load with no Durant.
Kawhi Leonard ($9,500) and Paul George ($9,100) are both in a favorable spot against the Brooklyn defense. Kyrie Irving ($8,700) is a candidate to bounce back from a poor performance in his last game, as is Fred VanVleet ($8,200). Clint Capela ($8,000) has strung together four straight performances with 43 or more fantasy points.
Expected Chalk
There are plenty of decent options on this slate, so nothing stands out as clear chalk. Of course, the elite players will be highly rostered and I believe George and Leonard could lead the way. Giannis should also be in plenty of lineups.
People could also chase the recent success of Norman Powell ($6,900).
I could see the injury situation in Denver leading to Michael Porter Jr. ($5,900) becoming chalk. Dennis Smith Jr. ($4,000) also has a chance to be someone a lot of people look to as a value play.
Key Values
Donte DiVincenzo, MIL vs. SAC ($5,100)
DiVincenzo has seen an increase in responsibility since Jrue Holiday has been out of the lineup. The guard has played at least 30 minutes in five of his past seven games while occasionally flashing his fantasy upside. The Kings rank last in the NBA in both points allowed and opponent field goal percentage, so this seems like a spot where DiVincenzo can reach value.
Dennis Smith Jr., DET at ORL ($4,000)
Smith played a season-high 23 minutes in the Pistons' most recent game against Memphis. He didn't score, but found other ways to contribute with four rebounds, five assists, three steals and three blocks. With Delon Wright expected to miss with a groin injury, it wouldn't be surprising if Smith started and played big minutes.
Norman Powell, TOR vs. PHI ($6,900)
Powell's salary is tied for the highest it's been all season, but it is hard to ignore his recent run of success. He has filled in for the Raptors with injuries to OG Anunoby and now Kyle Lowry and displayed 40-fantasy point upside several times this season. Powell could be a popular option, but he's guaranteed big minutes with a high ceiling.
Other value plays to consider: Michael Porter Jr., DEN at ATL ($5,900); Zeke Nnaji, DEN at ATL ($3,200); Shake Milton, PHI at TOR ($4,000)
