DraftKings NBA: Sunday Cheat Sheet

This article is part of our DraftKings NBA series.

The playoffs continue with another four-game slate today.  Since we have reliable data for the steady rotations of the playoff teams, let's first examine a winning lineup from a popular GPP and see how it was constructed.

My winning lineup wasn't too dissimilar from this one, save the selection of Porzingis and Richardson. I pivoted from Embid to Jokic with that money and got burned. Due to absences and injuries, I see two players in this winning lineup who will probably be fixture values today, but we'll get to them later. The combination of chalk and uniqueness was the key to this build, which didn't require anyone above $9,800.

SLATE OVERVIEW

BOS vs. PHI (+6) O/U: 213.5

LAC vs. DAL (+7.5) O/U: 232

TOR vs. BKN (+13) O/U: 217

DEN vs. UTA N/A  (EDITOR: FILL IN IF AVAILABLE, THX)

(Targeted games in BOLD, faded games in ITALIC - odds subject to change)

I favor the closer series over the 3-0 matchups today for a variety of reasons. On the plus side, I think Dallas will be able to stay competitive even if their star player sits. I'm also reasonably confident the Nuggets will make the necessary adjustments and fare better against the Jazz this time. While I'd love to like the Celtics/Sixers game, the idea of Embiid giving up altogether is a huge concern and one reason I'll be way under the field for him. I can see this game getting a little out of hand and that could make for a despondent Embiid, who doesn't hide his displeasure when things aren't going his way.  We've often seen him give up in past regular-season games, and the rest of the team will suffer if he isn't engaged. You can still find good value with Brooklyn and Toronto, but one should be careful on the Raptors side as they'll be keen to pull their starters the first opportunity they get.

POSITIONAL BREAKDOWN

Your values are going to be found at the guard position today, and it's probably the only position you want to get unique on in GPPs. The center position is one you can't mess with, and there are a  few guys in the mid-range salary level that should fit most lineups.  My spend-ups should come from the forward position in most of my lineups, as the drop-off to mid-range targets is pretty significant. My spend-up pairing will likely be a two-forward combo, with a peppering of forward-center.

INJURY SITUATIONS TO MONITOR

Luka Doncic (ankle) QUESTIONABLE

Forget about this questionable tag - Doncic is playing. The big question will be the ability to pivot off that ankle, as lateral movement remains one of his best attributes.  If Doncic is slowed by that, it may be a long night for Dallas. Even if he looks fine, Seth Curry ($4,600) is the guy you should be looking at. Curry encountered no problem slashing inside with some pretty layups while getting around the Clippers often enough to crush value at this salary.

Joe Harris (personal) OUT

The DFS prognosticators sweated this game because the distribution of Harris's minus were pretty unclear. While Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot ($5,000) appeared to be the most reasonable choice, I faded TLC and went with Tyler Johnson ($4,600) at the last minute because I feared the former's rostering percentage was going to be too high. While I am not surprised Johnson's salary bumped up $400 today, I'm relieved it isn't higher because he'll still register as a solid value for the field.

All ongoing injuries are static and will be excluded.

ELITE PLAYERS

I've already made my case about Joel Embiid, so he'll be stowed away safely in the fade drawer for me today save maybe a lineup or two. Those who wish to be uber-unique will make a play for Luka Doncic ($10,800), but the big problem with this move is you spend a lot of cash in an early game. If this contest was the final game of the day, I could see a path to Doncic in a couple of lineups, but as a general rule - although it's more of a regular-season rule - the later the game is, the cuter you can get. The value of late swap is always paramount, not only for last-minute scratches but also for hail-mary throws you can make in GPPs when the slate hasn't gone your way up to that point. 

The safe elite in this game is Kawhi Leonard ($9,800). I get the blowout concern against a compromised Doncic, but the Mavericks have enough to stay competitive although it's going to require big games from the supporting cast and Kristaps Porzingis ($9,200), who I still feel is a tad too expensive. Still, you have to assume his role expands tonight if Doncic's ankle proves to be a major problem. I'll wince a bit, but my exposure to him will increase.

Donovan Mitchell ($9,500) continues to confound the Nuggets, but Mike Conley's ($6,300) re-insertion into the lineup cut into his production as did the lopsided total. I think you go this direction if you expect Denver to bounce back, but the new game script might render him too expensive. You know you'll get a decent total from the star guard, but he needs something just short of 50 DKFP to realize value and isn't going to get there if he plays less than 30 minutes. Conley, regrettably, may be the better play here.

EXPECTED CHALK AND OTHER TARGETS

Rudy Gobert,  UTA ($7,800) vs. DEN

Gobert played like a man possessed in the first half of Friday's game, and he just outhustled Nikola Jokic at every turn. I don't expect a repeat from Gobert because his 44.5 DKFP performance stretched well above his floor in the bubble, but you can still make an upside call in a large-field tournament with Gobert as your Center or Utility. His salary won't hurt you too much, and you can still expect a DKFP sum in the mid-to-high 30s.

Fred VanVleet, TOR ($7,700) vs BKN

While I think you can count on guys like Kyle Lowry ($8,100) and Pascal Siakam ($7,900) to play well, VanVleet doesn't fade in the late stages.  A blowout is a real concern in this game, but his consistency and longevity on the court mostly override that.  The only risk you run with VanVleet is a shooting cooldown, but he finds other ways to get involved. He's averaging 20.3 points, 7.3 assists and 3.9 rebounds in Orlando, and is as safe as you'll get on this slate.

Tobias Harris, PHI ($7,500) vs. BOS

I have valid, but intangible reasons why I think Embiid is a bad play, but I feel the exact opposite about Harris. If there's one guy who will rise to the occasion and give the Sixers a fighting chance today, it's Harris. You're hard-pressed to find a hybrid SF/PF who is more consistent. And while his floor isn't a good match for his salary point, the upside is definitely there especially if Philly stays within striking distance as they did in Game 3. Over this series, Harris has been the easier target to find for the backcourt, and he's absorbed a lot of usage without Ben Simmons. He's also averaged over 36 minutes across the past three games.

Jarrett Allen, BKN ($7,400) vs. TOR

For a little less coin than Gobert, you're bound to find similar production and lower rostership from Allen, who's arguably one of the most consistent big men in the bubble. I've knocked Allen's defensive game in previous seasons, but he's distinguished himself on both sides of the ball in Orlando. He's averaged an exemplary 14.4 points, 12.2 rebounds and 3.8 assists over nine games in bubble play. And due to the lack of height on the roster, a double-double is almost a surefire guarantee.

Also consider: Paul George, LAC ($8,000) vs. DAL, Kemba Walker, BOS ($6,900) vs. PHI

KEY VALUES

Seth Curry and Tyler Johnson represent key values that have already garnered a mention in this article.

Marcus Smart, BOS ($5,500) vs. BKN  

I found most of Boston's lineup a bit too cost-prohibitive, but that isn't the case for Smart. He's now the go-to guy to replace Gordon Hayward, and he provided decent returns on his salary with 34 DKFP in 35 Game 3 minutes. The exceptional talent on this roster makes for some frustrating projection missteps, but I think Smart is hard to ignore at this salary level. I'll move to him as the primary choice for Boston behind Kemba because while I love Jaylen Brown ($7,300) and Jayson Tatum ($9,000), their ability to reach value is risky.

Marcus Morris, LAC ($5,400) vs. DAL

Morris continues to excel as one of the league's best defenders, but we know from his days in Boston he can pop with good numbers if provided the opportunity. Friday was one of those nights, as he matched 14 points to go with nine boards and might have exceeded his 30 DKFP total if he hadn't fouled out. The six fouls are evidence of how physical this series has been for both teams. I think 30 DKFP is an ambitious projection for Morris, but 25 is about right and he's at 5x value with that number.

Josh Richardson, PHI ($5,200) vs. BOS

Choosing between Richardson and Shake Milton ($4,400) is a bit of a crapshoot, but I have to give the edge to Richardson as the more experienced guard and more accustomed to playoff scenarios like the one Philly faces today.  It's a win or go home game for the Sixers, and Philly plays best when they are able to move the ball around with some facility. Richardson's participation is key in that effort.  

Dorian Finney-Smith, DAL ($4,500) vs. LAC

Tim Hardaway ($5,700) is a close second in this spot, but I think DFS is ripe for a big DFS day if you are a believer in a less-than-heroic night from Doncic. The Clippers already key in on Doncic and I imagine they will also try to give Porzingis fits. If the Mavs want to get back in this series, they'll need some help from the supporting cast. DFS isn't going to wow you, but his 27 DKFP showing in Game 3 returned almost 7x value. His salary went up a scant $300, so somewhere in the 6x-value range is still doable if he can match Friday's total.

Also consider: Ivica Zubac, LAC ($4,400) vs. DAL, Brad Wanamaker, BOS ($3,400) vs. PHI

That's it for Sunday! As always, refer back to RotoWire to get up-to-date lineups and other vital information. Our Advanced Lineups tool is a great resource to use as lineups lock.  Best of luck!