This article is part of our DraftKings NBA series.
Although 10 games will be in play on Sunday, the slate is effectively split in two on DraftKings. Normally, we would pick just one slate. But to sufficiently whet your DFS appetite, I'll be dividing the article so you'll be able to get picks for both options on Saturday. The late game between the Clippers and the Wizards will not be covered.
First, let's take a look at how the sportsbooks are viewing today's matchups.
SLATE OVERVIEW
EARLY SLATE, 3 PM ET
MIA (-3.5) @ BKN O/U: 216
BOS (-8) @ NY O/U: 208.5
MIN (-11) vs. MEM O/U: 230.5
LAL (-7) vs. DAL O/U: 222
MAIN SLATE, 5 PM ET
NO (-2) vs. OKC O/U: 228.5
TOR (-2.5) vs. UTA O/U: 210.5
ORL (-8.5) vs. GS O/U: 205.5
DET (-4) vs. SA O/U: 216
I think the line for the MEM/MIN game is a bit surprising - not with the spread, but the O/U seems a little high. According to pace numbers, these two teams should really play to a 215-220 total but we should still look to that game for boosts in production. On the second slate, the OKC/NO game stands out with the highest total. So whenever we're stuck, we should look to that game for tie-breaking decisions.
INJURY SITUATIONS TO MONITOR
3 PM SLATE
Ja Morant (back) OUT
This situation will end up being an ongoing issue for Morant, and we shouldn't expect him back anytime soon. In the interim, it appears Tyus Jones ($3,100) will get the start moving forward, although we haven't seen much from him in terms of production. It's actually Jae Crowder ($5,100) who's seen a nice boost in Morant's absence, although there's no positional correlation there.
Kyle Kuzma (ankle) QUESTIONABLE
You'll have to wait a bit for details on Kuzma, although I have a suspicion he'll play. Kuzma's relegated to a second-unit role for the time being, so this shouldn't adversely affect our view of this game.
5 PM SLATE
LaMarcus Aldridge (thigh) OUT
Although all of the Spurs' starters should get a bit of an uptick, both Rudy Gay ($4,900) and Trey Lyles ($3,500) are reasonable pivot value candidates.
Derrick Favors (personal) QUESTIONABLE
Our thoughts go out to Favors, who has been out of action due to the death of his mother. While he's currently listed as questionable, I doubt we will see him on the floor. Both Jahlil Okafor ($4,600) and Jaxson Hayes ($4,400) remain the top candidates under the basket here.
Kenrich Williams (ankle) DOUBTFUL
You'll also get boosts from the aforementioned Favors pivots, but E'Twaun Moore ($4,200) and Nicolo Melli ($3,200) should be the primary beneficiaries in Williams's absence.
ELITE PLAYERS
3 PM SLATE
Karl-Anthony Towns, MIN ($10,800) vs. MEM
It goes without saying Luka Doncic ($11,600) is now a matchup-proof behemoth, and he went off for 75 DKFP in his last meeting against the Lakers. You can very sure of one thing - he will be highly owned. Based on the tempo of the game, I feel more inclined to pivot to Towns but could potentially also envision an elite tandem with Doncic or another elite or near-elite. He put up almost 50 DKFP against Memphis in their last meeting, and at this price that's only about 4.6X value. We pick Towns in hopes of something more in the 60 DKFP range.
LeBron James, LAL ($10,800) vs. DAL
Yes, you read that right. You've seen the last stat line against Dallas - 92.5 DKFP. We shouldn't expect a lofty number like this, but it seems James and Doncic bring out the best in each other. And although they'll be overshadowed by NFL action, this matchup outdoes any WR/CB duel you'll find by a mile. I'm fine with buying the duel and running with value for the rest of my lineup. It's certainly a viable path to consider.
Anthony Davis, LAL ($10,400) vs. DAL
AD also enjoyed a great game against Dallas, clocking in with 51.4 DKFP in the beginning of November. Should we expect another Brow beat tonight? I don't see a metric that indicates a shift in production here. Both James and Davis are totally in play as elites.
5 PM SLATE
Andre Drummond, DET ($9,400) vs. SA
This slate will focus more on balance, but Drummond stands out in a game without LaMarcus Aldridge - who won't be around to neutralize Drummond - who remains one of the league's most consistent big men. You have to give the Spurs a slight downgrade from their normally efficient interior defense. If Drummond can eclipse 50 - something he's done in two of his last 10 games - his price is worth the risk.
Also consider: Pascal Siakam, TOR ($8,700)
EXPECTED CHALK AND OTHER TARGETS
3 PM SLATE
Kemba Walker, BOS ($8,100) @ NY
Kemba appears to be just fine after what initially looked like a scary injury last week. And when you consider the Celtics have already met the Knicks twice, we can look to Kemba's two-game average of 50.1 DKFP and lock him in at this price. On a slate where you are Doncic-or-bust at point guard, Walker offers some excellent production at a highly-reduced price.
Jimmy Butler, MIA ($7,600) @ BKN
Working on the assumption he plays and starts, Butler is a prime candidate for upside as he can effortlessly take over a game in the right script. He had been a bit on-again, off-again with his shot recently. So after a frigid 3-for-11 from the floor against Golden State, I think Butler will rebound nicely as the Heat travel to the Barclays Center.
Spencer Dinwiddie, BKN ($7,700) vs. MIA
On the other end of the ball, you have Dinwiddie who's been as consistent as they come at this price and could blow up on any given night. While his basketball intellect is on point, you have to love a guy who took his contract money in an upfront sum for less and relegated it to investment. I will follow suit and hope to reap generous returns for $7,700.
Julius Randle, NY ($6,800) vs. BOS
Ohhhh, I really hate jumping on the Knicks train, which is erratically driven by everyone's favorite DFS lineup-wrecker, David Fitzdale. Granted, the Knicks do look a lot better, though they seem to be characteristically bad on paper as always. With that said, Randle is as consistent as you'll get for the Knicks, as he regularly sees around 30 minutes a night. His price has sunk to a place where you're absolutely thrilled to get almost 6x value when he breaks 40 DKFP, which could happen on any given night.
Also consider: Andrew Wiggins, MIN ($7,900)
5 PM SLATE
Fred VanVleet, TOR ($7,400) vs. UTA
VanVleet's on a five-game tear where he's averaging close to 40 DKFP per game, which makes him one of the most consistent guys in the 7k range tonight. While Utah owns a strong defense, I'm worried more about Van Vleet's shot than anything else. He can be streaky, but he's currently running white-hot.
Jonathan Isaac, ORL ($7,000) vs. GS
OK, not so chalky. I actually like him due to some potentially low ownership, as most people will look at some basic metrics and move on. If you drill deeper, you'll see how badly Golden State is defending the three, and you realize a spot where Isaac could get his long-range ball back in order. He's running at a five-game clip of 37 DKFP per game, so I'm a fan at this price point.
Bojan Bogdanovic, UTA ($6,800) @ TOR
As crazy as it sounds, Bojan is delivering the best value consistently for the Jazz as guys like Donovan Mitchell and Rudy Gobert can't seem to beat value on a regular basis. That's not the case for Bogdanovic, who's vaulted his totals above 40 DKFP in four of his last 10 games. The Raptors look great defensively but have some problems defending the wing position.
Dennis Schroder, OKC ($5,700) @ NO
These two teams are playing each other back-to-back and Schroder destroyed value with a solid 37 DKFP in their last game, outdoing all of his backcourt teammates - including Chris Paul. While you could see CP3 and SGA get their shot back in this rematch, Schroder will enter the game with a ton of confidence.
VALUE PLAYS
3 PM SLATE
Jeff Teague, MIN ($5,600) vs, MEM
With the high O/U in this game, it could be a night for Teague to pop. And at this price, a 35 DKFP game at a $160 PFP rate would be ideal. He's certainly demonstrated the ability to get there, and he's managed it in almost half of his last 10 games. Teague also averages about four DKFPs better at home.
Jaren Jackson, MEM ($5,600) @ MIN
Jackson doesn't possess the most consistent floor, but he's great in a pinch when you're filling out an elite-filled lineup. Combine the pace of this game and Jackson's recent potential floor/ceiling ratio of 30/45 DKFP, and you've got an ideal play that's well suited for a GPP roster.
Danny Green, LAL ($4,300) vs. DAL
The potential absence of Kuzma gives more credence to this value pick, although I don't think you can expect more than 5k value from him in this spot. We're looking for guys who can effectively fill the seats while we anchor 120 DKFP with the likes of James, Doncic and Davis, and Green promises a chance for a higher total against a Dallas defense that has improved, but not exactly noteworthy.
Dwight Howard, LAL ($4,400) vs. DAL
The Lakers opted to line up Howard over McGee against Kristaps Porzingis, and they were successful in neutralizing Dallas's big man. This leads me to believe they'll stick with Howard as the best defense of Dallas's interior attack.
5 PM SLATE
Derrick Rose, DET ($5,400) vs. SA
When he's healthy and shooting well, Rose is a veteran who can generate some prolific numbers. While I'm not all that encouraged by the metrics in this game, Rose's ability to get over 30 DKFP makes him a worthwhile addition as I try to pad a more balanced lineup in this slate.
J.J. Redick, NO ($5,300) vs. OKC
There's no questioning Redick's ability to light it up, and the Pelicans will ride him if he's hot when he enters the game. He didn't quite hit value in the first game of their two-game tilt against the Thunder, so I expect he'll try to rectify that situation today.
Omari Spellman, GS ($4,400) @ ORL
The hapless Warriors have leaned on Spellman a bit more over the past two games. While he's only logged about 25 minutes during that stint, he's averaged 31 DKFP over that span. If he can get close to that number against the Magic, you've got a value-crushing score worth considering.
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Our injury section offered a lot of additional value for both slates, so please refer back to that section for additional options.
Best of luck to everyone, and I was happy to help you out with this dual slate today. Check back to RotoWire for updates on injury situations you're considering.
