This article is part of our DraftKings NBA series.
If you follow my articles regularly, you know that we absolutely destroyed the last small slate we played on Thursday. My 358 DKFP was enough to double up in every cash and tournament game I played, and I hope you joined me in that effort. With another small four-game offering today, let's try to keep the streak going!
SLATE OVERVIEW
The early DAL/HOU game s excluded from the featured slate today.
BKN (-2.5) @ NY O/U:214.5
WAS (-2) vs. SAC O/U: 238.5
DEN (-9) vs. PHO O/U: 215.5
LAC (-12) vs. NO O/U: 234
It's an obvious tale of opposites on Sunday, with two games coming in with favorable O/Us and one with a particularly narrow line in SAC/WAS, while the other two games come in at a substantially lower number. I like piling up on SAC/WAS and I'm also giving a lot of exposure to the NO/LAC game if we can figure out the injury situation in New Orleans. With the other two games, I'll limit my exposure somewhat with a tip to any injury situations or isolated elites that look promising.
INJURY SITUATIONS TO MONITOR
Kyrie Irving (shoulder) OUT
The Nets are in a holding pattern for now, but they still offer some value at this position with Spencer Dinwiddie ($7,700) as the unquestioned beneficiary. We've also seen some movement in the value ranks, but guys like Joe Harris ($5,500), Garrett Temple ($5,000) and Iman Shumpert ($3,400) should only be considered as GPP punt plays.
Bogdan Bogdanovic (hamstring) DOUBTFUL
It would be a big surprise to see Bogdanovic play tonight, and there's a lot of additional value to be had with De'Aaron Fox also sidelined. If you follow the Mountain West as I do, you already know about Wyoming's Justin James ($3,400), who has now taken his considerable talents to the Kings. With the number of backcourt absences, he got a chance to show his value with a 24 DKFP showing in their last game. Along with that great value, both Cory Joseph ($4,900) and Yogi Ferrell ($3,800) should continue to contribute. But with Joseph nursing a heel injury, he is worth moving away from despite his probable status.
Ricky Rubio (back) QUESTIONABLE
With the Suns on a back-to-back, the team could certainly use a rested Rubio, but it's anyone's guess as to how this situation will shake down currently. You can go with presumptive starter Tyler Johnson ($4,200), but I think it's better to just go with the rest of the Suns' playmakers. I'd go with Johnson only if I'm really desperate for value at the end of my builds.
Derrick Favors (back) OUT
Favors should miss another game on Sunday, and your natural pivot here is still Jaxson Hayes ($4,300) with Jahlil Okafor (ankle) also out. I'm a lot more confident with the rest of the Pelican starters, especially the backcourt, as that's where the majority of the offense is flowing from.
ELITE PLAYERS
Bradley Beal, WAS ($10,200) vs. SAC
You know it's a light slate when Bradley Beal tops the money list. As I said, I'm a fan of this matchup, so Beal will get a lot of looks from me. However, I need a big number from him to justify this price. Anything below 50 DKFP would be a disappointment here, but I think Beal can get there in this matchup as the Kings are 22nd in the league versus starting shooting guards.
Paul George, LAC ($8,500) vs. NO
I can't fault a Kawhi Leonard ($10,000) add, but I significantly prefer George against the Pelicans. Leonard missed the first game they played against New Orleans, but George handled things fairly well in the frontcourt in what was his season debut. With only 24 minutes in that matchup, George will see a lot more time in the rematch, and the added ingredient of Kawhi will make gaining any headway a difficult proposition for the Pelicans.
We finally saw Nikola Jokic ($9,200) wake up this week, but I can't justify him for this price - at least not yet. For less money, I think we can target a similar output, so I still think you're burning money if you go this route.
EXPECTED CHALK AND MID-LEVEL TARGETS
Brandon Ingram, NO ($8,400) @ LAC
Despite the difficult opponent, I suspect people will continue to flock to Ingram tonight. He was out of the last game played against the Clippers, but he'll now face George and Leonard in what should be an uphill battle. The Pelicans would need a monster game from Ingram to be competitive, and Ingram has been incredibly dependable and virtually matchup-proof when he gets an adequate amount of minutes.
Lou Williams, LAC ($7,000) vs. NO
You kind of have to ignore the 50 DKFP game against the Pelicans the first time around, as Lou was doing his usual thing without Kawhi in the lineup. We've only seen a limited sample size of Lou's output with both George and Leonard on the court, but a floor of 35 DKFP is probably a fair estimate. And if the game gets a little lopsided, we could see that number go up considerably. The upside will always be there for Williams if the game script goes his way, and we could see a strong second-half surge from Sweet Lou with the Clippers at full strength.
Kelly Oubre, PHO ($6,800) @ DEN
Oubre took over the first half of Thursday's game against the Pelicans, and followed up with another huge game against the Timberwolves. The Suns are on the tail end of a back-to-back and I have no doubt they are a bit gassed, but you fade Oubre at your peril for this price. His season splits don't reflect his recent three-game tear, where he's averaged 23.3 points, 8.3 rebounds, 2.3 assists and a whopping three steals over that span.
Richaun Holmes, SAC ($6,200) at WAS
I'm exercising restraint and relying on my ownership date to head Holmes' way, as I think the sharps will head to Montrezl Harrell and Thomas Bryant. However, I have additional cause to flip over here. You definitely see a usage dip for Harrell with Paul George on the court. And while I can't fault a Bryant add here, he's got competition for minutes. He's either met or come very close to a double-double in each of his last five games. The $500 you save by heading down here could be very valuable as you finish out your builds.
Also consider: Jrue Holiday, NO ($7,900)
VALUE PLAYS
Paul Millsap, DEN ($5,900) vs. PHO
While some might balk at calling $5,900 a value call, just plug in Millsap's 33 DKFP average over the past four games and you're looking at 5.5x value at around $178 per point. He's been excellent off the glass this season, and while the Suns are a decent defensive rebounding team, they rank dead-last when it comes to grabbing their own errant shots. It presents a plum opportunity for Millsap, who's been carrying a hefty load in the frontcourt with Jokic performing below projections.
Taurean Prince, BKN ($5,300) @ NY
The Nets are on a back-to-back, but they are basically crossing the Manhattan Bridge and cruising down Flatbush to get to their next game. Prince also registered only 25 minutes on Saturday, so he could definitely be in line for increased usage. Prince is definitely a better GPP call due to his increased variance, but I can see him in a cash lineup or two as well.
Moritz Wagner, WAS ($4,700) vs, SAC
Wagner is coming off an uninspiring game against the Hornets, but that's exactly why I'm favoring him as a high-variance add. If we can squeeze 30 DKFP out of him, we're happy campers at around $157 per point. And he's been in that neighborhood frequently over the last few weeks.
SUMMARY
Our injury section provided some great pivots you'll need to get to a decent number tonight. I found myself moving off the elites and restricting my exposure to one stud per lineup, for the most part. Balance at the guard spots and value up front has been the gold standard for me with the early builds. As always, check back in with us at RotoWire to fine-tune those lineups before game lock.
