This article is part of our DraftKings NBA series.
After a week replete with some hefty slates, we get a breather in the form of a four-game ledger Saturday night. The good news is that all four contests project for plenty of scoring, with the three that have the most elevated expectations detailed further below. The injury report is mostly devoid of big names in terms of short-term absences, but the one major expected absence in that regard, Stephen Curry, hurts plenty from a fantasy perspective.
Slate Overview
Here's a closer look at the three games with the highest projected totals on Saturday's slate:
Sacramento Kings at Philadelphia 76ers (Projected total: 235.0 points)
Despite an impressive performance versus the Celtics on Friday, the Kings are still allowing a Western Conference-high 119.4 points per game and NBA-high 48.9 percent shooting while playing at the 11th-fastest pace (103.6 possessions per contest) in the league. The 76ers have been an excellent home team all season, although their firepower will be muted some Saturday with Joel Embiid (knee) and Seth Curry (ankle) both set to miss the game. Philadelphia is averaging the sixth-most points per home game (117.6) and is averaging the second-most possessions per home contest as well (106.8). Although the Sixers allow a relatively modest 110.4 points per home game, Sacramento is a talented offensive team that's putting up 113.4 points per road tilt.
Charlotte Hornets at Los Angeles Clippers (Projected total: 231.5 points)
The Hornets have been considerably more vulnerable when traveling, as the 117.3 points per road game they allow not only ranks as the fifth-highest in that split, it's also is a whopping 8.3 points per game higher than their home figure. The disparity unsurprisingly extends to opponent shooting percentage allowed, as Charlotte yields the league's second-highest on the road (48.9 percent, compared to 45.8 percent at home). The Clippers are ranked in the top 10 with 116.5 points per home game allowed, and the Hornets also play at a top-10 pace on the road (104.2 possessions per game), which elevates the Clippers' prospects even further. Then, while L.A. certainly brings a solid defense, it's worth noting the Hornets have also put up more points on the road (114.0) than at home (110.7).
San Antonio Spurs at Milwaukee Bucks (Projected total: 228.5 points)
This total largely hinges on the Bucks' offensive prowess, as Milwaukee is averaging an NBA-high 119.3 points per home game and also plays a top-10 pace (104.2 possessions per game) at Fiserv Forum. The Spurs' offensive prospects are a bit more modest on paper, as the Bucks allow just 110.0 points per home game, and San Antonio scores 111.1 points per road game. DeMar DeRozan's return to action Friday helps, but there are unsurprisingly likely to be better DFS candidates on the Bucks' side.
Injury Situations to Monitor
NOTE: Injury reporting is especially fluid in the NBA, where the status of multiple players can change during the course of a day. Therefore, although the following serves as a foundation for the latest injury report as of the time the article is written, check back throughout the course of the day with RotoWire for the latest news regarding all players' statuses on that night's slate.
Joel Embiid, PHI (knee), Status: OUT
Embiid's ongoing absence will continue to afford Tony Bradley and Dwight Howard the playing time at center while keeping the usage rates of Ben Simmons and Tobias Harris particularly elevated.
Stephen Curry, GS (back), Status: DOUBTFUL
Curry's expected absence Saturday could once again lead to additional opportunities for Jordan Poole and Damion Lee while likely boosting the usage rate of Andrew Wiggins (40 points in 34 minutes Friday) significantly.
Seth Curry, PHI (ankle), Status: OUT
With Curry out, Furkan Korkmaz and Matisse Thybulle could be the biggest beneficiaries.
Serge Ibaka, LAC (back), Status: QUESTIONABLE
If Ibaka sits out a third straight contest, Ivica Zubac and Patrick Patterson are likely to be the biggest beneficiaries.
Cody Zeller, CHA (shoulder), Status: OUT
Zeller's absence is expected to lead to a spot start for Bismack Biyombo.
Other notable injuries:
Marvin Bagley, SAC (hand), Status: OUT
Patrick Beverley, LAC (knee), Status: OUT
LaMarcus Aldridge, SA (team decision), Status: OUT
James Wiseman, GS (COVID-19 protocols), Status: OUT
Eric Paschall, GS (COVID-19 protocols), Status: OUT
Jaren Jackson, MEM (knee), Status: OUT
Elite Players
We have an interesting situation at the elite level Saturday. There are only two players with five-figure salaries, and two of the three highest-salaries players overall are out/doubtful to play. Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,100) leads the way and is the one healthy body of the trio, as Joel Embiid ($10,600) is already ruled out and Stephen Curry ($9,900) is doubtful.
Antetokounmpo has a very good positional matchup against the Spurs, especially with LaMarcus Aldridge no longer down low. He's also scored over 70 DK points in three of the last seven games alone and has scored fewer than 57 DK points only once in the last 10 contests overall.
There are also several players with salaries in the high four figures that have the ability to deliver elite scores, including De'Aaron Fox ($9,500), Kawhi Leonard ($9,200), Ben Simmons ($9,100) and Tobias Harris ($8,800).
From that group, Fox has been excellent all season and at his best on the road, where he's averaging 45.7 DK points per contest. He also put up 60 DK points against the 76ers the first time he saw them this season. Leonard is an excellent positional matchup against a Hornets team that's had trouble with small forwards all season, while Simmons and Harris are poised for potentially explosive nights with both Embiid and Seth Curry out and facing a defensively vulnerable Kings team.
Expected Chalk
In addition to the names just detailed in the Elite Players section, other likely chalk plays include Andrew Wiggins, who, as detailed earlier, had a magnificent night against the Grizzlies on Friday in Curry's absence. Wiggins racked up 66 DK points, and at a salary of just $6.3K on a small slate, he should be rostered at his highest rate of the season; other healthy Warriors such as Draymond Green, Jordan Poole, Damion Lee and Kelly Oubre should also be popular to a varying degree; Matisse Thybulle and Furkan Korkmaz could also certainly gain traction as value plays in Seth Curry's absence, while Dwight Howard should also continue enjoying an elevated profile thanks to his very strong performances in Embiid's absences to date; the same could hold true for the Spurs' Keldon Johnson, whose $5.4K salary is especially appealing in light of the 58.8 DK points he put up Friday.
Key Values
Andrew Wiggins, GS at MEM ($6,300)
This once is more or less an automatic pick after Wiggins exploded for 66 DK points Friday night versus this same Grizzlies squad and only saw his salary rise $300 overnight. The 2014 first overall pick should once again take the floor without Stephen Curry on Friday, locking in his usage. Additionally, it's worth noting the elite performance by a shooting guard against Memphis isn't surprising – the Grizzlies are allowing the eighth-most DK points per game (76.5) to players with SG designations over the last 10 games.
Dwight Howard, PHI vs. SAC ($6,000)
Howard also has a recent body of work that speaks for itself and supports his candidacy as a value play abundantly Saturday. He, too, has an excellent positional matchup to boost. The veteran big man has scored 33.0 and 36.3 DK points in his last two games with Joel Embiid out of action, logging 28 and 30 minutes in those contests off the bench. Howard has nailed the double-double bonus in each, and he should be in a great position to do it again Saturday. The opposing Kings check-in allowing the second-highest offensive efficiency (35.4 percent) to centers, the fifth-highest to second-unit players (45.2 percent) and the highest (62.3 percent) in the paint, while also surrendering the sixth-most DK points per game (67.8) to players with center designations.
Keldon Johnson, SA at MIL ($5,400)
As alluded to in the Chalk Plays section, Johnson turned in an outstanding performance Friday consisting of 58.8 DK points against the Cavaliers. The positional matchup lines up well for him again Saturday, as the Bucks have actually allowed the ninth-most DK points per game (59.4) to power forwards on the season, including 68.8 per contest in the last five games. Johnson has delivered over 5x return on his current salary in 16 of 35 games this season overall, and he comes in shooting a blistering 55.1 percent, including 38.1 percent from distance, over the last 10 games.
Other value plays to consider: Jrue Holiday, MIL vs. SA ($6,500); Kelly Oubre, GS at MEM ($6,100); Donte DiVincenzo, MIL vs. SA ($5,800); Shake Milton, PHI vs. SAC ($5,200); Jordan Poole, GS at MEM ($5,100); Furkan Korkmaz, PHI vs. SAC ($4,600); Matisse Thybulle, PHI vs. SAC ($3,700); Damion Lee, GS at MEM ($3,400)
