This article is part of our DraftKings NBA series.
While it would be hasty to say that Saturday's five-game slate plays itself, I think there are some pretty obvious spots to target and dangerous games to stay away from today for a variety of reasons.
Let's start with the uncertainty afoot in the BOS/LAL game. We're now entering uncharted territory for the Lakers, where LeBron James ($10,800) will start to see his minutes capped to 30 minutes or fewer. Even at $10.8k I don't know how we can justify the price with this news, We've seen several games without James, but having him on the floor in a limited capacity will be a bit of a head-scratcher. Couple that with questionable tags from Kyle Kuzma and Brandon Ingram, and suddenly the Lakers look like a real DFS trap.
We can probably guarantee Rajon Rondo ($6,700) for a solid total here, but that may be about it. On the other end of the game, Kyrie Irving ($9,000) is questionable but expected to play, so you can't make sound pivots to Terry Rozier ($5,500) or Marcus Smart ($5,200) unless you believe that the game will get out of hand – certainly a possibility. I realize you could find some value here, but all I am saying is that there are a lot of question marks in this matchup, and we might end up better off going elsewhere.
The 241 O/U in the Wizards/T-Wolves game is the ultimate spot, and I think a stack of Bradley Beal ($9,700) and Karl-Anthony Towns ($10,400) is a prolific (albeit potentially high-owned) avenue to follow for your core. These two are racking up top-10 scores in almost every slate they play, and despite the back-to-back for Beal, I would have a hard time fading him. There are a few ways to get off of him, but I can't say the same for Towns. Aside from a disappointing game against Detroit, his stat lines are almost unparalleled, and his 55 DKFP score against the Wizards three games ago is a solid indication of how this matchup might play out.
There's more value to be had on this slate, and we'll get to it in a moment. There's only one significant injury worth mentioning tonight (aside from ongoing situations).
Dewayne Dedmon (knee) DOUBTFUL: Dedmon's absence throws the door open for John Collins ($7,200) to tear up the Nets, but there's also value deeper in the Hawks' lineup. Obviously, Alex Len ($5,600) possesses risk/reward potential, but I think we will begin to see Taurean Prince ($4,500) light it up down the stretch, and Vince Carter ($3,500) can't be ignored either. He's averaging a value-crushing 23 DKFP per game and averaging 27 minutes on the floor over the last four games.
GUARDS
I first feel a need to recommend a couple of fades in the PHO/POR game. This game screams blowout as the Blazers have ripped up the Suns by 14 and 22 points, and Damian Lillard's minutes reflect a pivot to the second unit with an average of fewer than 30 minutes across those two contests. Also, Devin Booker has had trouble getting the job done against Portland, and I think both guys aren't worth the risk at their respective prices.
I'll now begin with another duo to start the guard section. They're right next to each other in price, they're facing off against each other tonight, and they're very close in terms of variance as well.
You can't get more swingy than Trae Young ($8,200) and D'Angelo Russell ($8,100). I wouldn't touch either of them in cash, but you can bet I'm going to play for their ceiling in a GPP lineup or two as the ultimate risk/reward tandem. The 236.5 O/U begins a very persuasive argument for both players. Russell has had the upper hand in this series, with a 45 DKFP average over two games. Young experienced some shooting struggles in both games but his recent shooting totals are exceeding his season averages, so there's potential for a better showing here.
Jeff Teague, MIN vs. WAS ($5,800): Teague's record against the Wizards doesn't wow me, but I think rostering the floor general of the favorite in a high-scoring matchup is as sensible of a play as any tonight. Teague popped with 45 DKFP against OKC earlier in the week, so you know that he can scratch his ceiling in the right situation, and you should be able to count this game as one of those scenarios.
Additional guards to consider: Kemba Walker, CHA at MIL ($8,300), Jeremy Lamb, CHA at MIL ($5,900), Tomas Satoransky, WAS at MIN ($5,600)
FORWARDS
For starters, Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,300) sets up as an excellent play against Charlotte, but a closer look might suggest a modicum of caution against spending up here. Well, "against" is a bit of a misnomer, as you fade Giannis at your own peril, but if you look at a recent five-game sample, you see some downticks in minutes, accuracy and production for the All-Star, and with a 52.8 DKFP average over that span, he doesn't meet value at this price point. The minutiae may seem nit-picky, but if we're on the quest to hit 300-plus, we want value-beating players. I don't think fading Giannis will be a slate-breaking move.
Kelly Oubre, PHO at POR ($6,200): I already mentioned Collins, so I have no problem sliding down to Oubre with his five-spot eligibility. In one of his first games with the Suns, Oubre turned in a masterful stat-stuffing 45.5 DKFP score against the Blazers. Over the past four games, he's giving us a good indication of floor reliability with a 37 DKFP average over that span. I think Oubre is your prime candidate near the DK median price tonight.
Kent Bazemore, ATL vs. BKN ($5,100): At $5,100, he might be a little too good to pass up despite the crowded depth chart he's forced to contend with. He beat value in only 28 minutes against Miami, and we're talking about the Nets here. Bazemore had a sweet 40 DKFP game against the Nets, but that was back in December before he went down with an ankle injury. I'd wait to see if Bazemore draws the star tonight, in which case I'd pivot over to Prince (already mentioned), but he still warrants some consideration.
Jake Layman, POR vs. PHO ($3,200): Layman is the king of garbage minutes in Portland when they run away with a game. He'll even pop in close matchups, but at his ultra-low price point he doesn't need to do a whole lot to beat value. This is purely a matchup-specific play, and you can't look at his usual numbers to satisfy your curiosity. All you need is a two-game average of 38.6 DKFP to give you an idea of how Portland proceeds against the Suns in their blowout games.
Additional forwards to consider: Khris Middleton, MIL vs. CHA $6,500)
CENTERS
Honestly, I don't see fading Towns at all, but if you have to go low at the five, you could do a lot worse than Bobby Portis ($5,700). While Towns is a prolific scorer, his occasional defensive struggles are well-documented. The days of rostering the opposing center against the T-Wolves are now fewer and far between, but I still think Portis can beat value at this appealing price point.
JaVale McGee, LAL vs. BOS ($4,300): McGee is the only other Lakers spot I'd entertain tonight, as he's consistently met(and often beaten) value relative to his price. I don't expect a spectacular game opposite Al Horford, but if the restriction plans for LeBron are in place, McGee could be in line for additional production, as he sees more fantasy points per-minute (1.2) than any other player for the Lakers when James is off the court.
Additional center to consider: Alex Len, ATL vs. BKN ($5,000)
