This article is part of our DraftKings NBA series.
As we cruise into the Game 4s, we see the familiar four-game slate beginning at 1:30 p.m. EDT on Monday. For reference, I've included a top lineup from the most popular GPP contest on DraftKings to see what we can glean from their lineup construction.
| Salary | Draft % | Score | |
| PG Malcolm Brogdon | $6,900 | 35.1 | 68.75 |
| SG Dennis Schroder | $5,700 | 8.18 | 46.25 |
| SF Eric Gordon | $5,100 | 48.8 | 31.25 |
| PF Carmelo Anthony | $5,800 | 8.7 | 41 |
| C Jeff Green | $4,900 | 15.3 | 43.75 |
| G D.J. Augustin | $4,200 | 17.3 | 37.25 |
| F Anthony Davis | $10,200 | 24.2 | 65.25 |
| UTIL Bam Adebayo | $7,300 | 24.6 | 43.75 |
TOTAL: 377.25
Aside from Anthony Davis, the player never spent more than $7,300. While some people got close running two elites, mostly with Giannis Antetokounmpo or James Harden, they weren't able to make up for it with productive value targets. Sometimes balance is the key to a successful slate, so we'll keep that in mind as we build today.
SLATE OVERVIEW
MIL vs. ORL (+13.5) O/U: 225.5
HOU vs. OKC (+3.5) O/U: 220
IND vs. MIA (-6.5) O/U: 216.5
LAL vs. POR (+7.0) O/U: 225.5
[Targeted game in BOLD, faded game in ITALIC - odds subject to change]
You won't be able to avoid the Rockets-Thunder matchup today. Although the Thunder backcourt is difficult to nail down, their usage has become a bit more predictable, and the same can be said for Harden's supporting cast. Likewise, the Lakers-Blazers game should be packed with targets. Although you might be able to find some value in the other games, I fear reduced usage from the Bucks and Heat, enough to limit my exposure to them somewhat. For you sports bettors out there, I think the HOU/OKC over/under is way off. If this line stays the same, I am taking the over there today!
POSITIONAL BREAKDOWN
With a steep dropoff after roughly six centers, the position may be too cost-prohibitive, considering most of your elite options line up at other positions. There's one high-priced exception to that rule, which we will cover below. How and where we choose to spend up will determine a lot about our build, but with few injury situations on the slate, late swaps may only be necessary if we see scratches in the IND/MIA game. As a result, I'll only be using positional eligibility to fit in players, not as a method for maximizing late swap potential.
INJURY SITUATIONS TO CONSIDER
Aaron Gordon (hamstring) QUESTIONABLE
This series is all but over, and unless the Magic have a devious plan to make this series relevant, I don't see how the team puts Gordon on the floor. I'm not very confident in anyone for the Magic today, although Gordon would be an interesting GPP pivot if he played.
Steven Adams (thigh) QUESTIONABLE
I expect Adams will play, but this injury did force him to leave Game 3. It's worth a look before lineup lock, but I wouldn't be supremely confident with a pivot, as the likely replacement would be Nerlens Noel ($3,700), who doesn't inspire much confidence.
ELITE PLAYERS
I'm not going to live or die by the balanced approach of the winning lineup above, but it is something to be mindful of. A tried and true way of determining how and when to spend up is fairly simple - can I get similar production for less money? I think Anthony Davis ($10,500) is peerless because his value matches or exceeds his salary when the Lakers are playing well. Damian Lillard ($10,900) is another example of a player whose floor is higher than most guards on the slate, although I think his salary has risen to a cost-prohibitive point. James Harden ($11,700) has been so streaky recently, it's hard to get the bearded wonder into many lineups without sacrificing potential elsewhere. Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,100) is a better play than Lillard and Harden despite the blowout potential. Regardless of the score, he's never dipped below 31 minutes of usage, which is plenty of time for him to put up decent numbers. Although rostering both Davis and Giannis leaves you only $4,700 per player to complete your lineup, I think that's the way to go if you want to roll with two elites. I think you will get similar numbers from both players, so Anthony Davis would have to be my call for a one-elite build due to his lower salary.
EXPECTED CHALK AND OTHER TARGETS
Chris Paul, OKC ($8,000) vs. HOU
There's no doubt that CP3 is properly motivated to beat his former teammates, and it appears there's enough animosity there to keep him fired up. The public is starting to get behind the Thunder in the sportsbook and in DFS and, despite the volatility, I like Paul in this spot today. There's a clear path for him to break 5x value with 40 DKFP, since he's done it in two of the three games in this series. Now that there's a glimmer of hope in this series, Paul and company will rise to the occasion against a Rockets squad that probably can't sustain the defensive prowess they've exhibited so far. If you want to spend a little less and embrace a bit more variance, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ($7,400) enjoyed a masterful 52 DKFP performance in Game 3 and could be dialed in for a similar number Monday.
Malcolm Brogdon, IND ($7,500) vs. MIA
Despite the woeful showing for Indiana in this series, Brogdon has been scorching hot. He's averaged 24.3 points, 11.0 assists and 4.3 rebounds in this series and is on the floor longer than anyone else on the team. His 25.2 percent usage rate could be a tad higher, but he'll be utilized to his full potential in a make-or-break game for the Pacers.
Goran Dragic, MIA ($6,500) vs, IND
Unless we hear news to the contrary, the Dragic train should keep on rolling, and the price is still right for the veteran guard, who's enjoyed an extended run due to Kendrick Nunn falling out of favor. That move is a head-scratcher, but it's fine for us as it only makes our decisions easier. A look at PopcornMachine.net (a nifty game flow tool if you've never used it) shows that Dragic and Tyler Herro ($5,500) played out the majority of the fourth quarter together, so I'm a fan of both guards and am OK with pivoting to Herro for 1k less if money gets tight.
Also consider: CJ McCollum, POR ($7,700) vs. LAL, Bam Adebayo, MIA ($7,600) vs. IND
KEY VALUES
Eric Gordon, HOU ($6,000) vs. OKC
OK, he's not quite a bargain, but Gordon is a pretty safe bet to break 5x value at his current salary. With Russell Westbrook sidelined, Gordon has risen to the occasion, breaking the 30 DKFP barrier in all three of his games against the Thunder. That's the exact number we need from him, so if you're looking for a dependable value core in cash, Gordon fits the bill.
Jeff Green, HOU ($5,400) vs. OKC
The grizzled veteran is experiencing a career renaissance with Houston, and he's been spectacular in this series, averaging 19.7 points, 6.7 rebounds and 2.3 assists over three games. The 6-9 forward is making Houston's small-ball approach a lot more viable, and the team's height disadvantage in most contests is assuaged by his presence in the interior. If I'm using Davis in the PF position, I will have plenty of Green at center because he is simply crushing value at this salary level.
Gary Clark, ORL ($4,100) vs. MIL
As I said, I'm not confident in much of Orlando today, as the Markelle Fultz/D.J. Augustin see-saw is frustrating, and Terrence Ross and Evan Fournier are even more befuddling. Assuming Gordon sits, I think Clark's salary is low enough to justify a spot in a few lineups. Although he hasn't closed out most games for the Magic, we have seen a good bit of him in the second and third quarters, and he logged a whopping 35 minutes in Game 3. That number is unheard of for a guy at this salary level, so despite the risk-reward look of this pick, attention must be paid to that kind of usage.
Luguentz Dort, OKC ($4,000) vs. HOU
If you could quantify defensive smothering of an All-Star into some kind of bonus, Dort would be a slate-breaker. He's the driving force behind Harden's erratic shooting of late, and thankfully he's started to yield some FP production as well. He has literally clawed his way into the starting five with incredible hustle, and if you're looking for a DFS bargain, you could certainly do worse then the 20-year-old rookie.
Also consider: Eric Bledsoe, MIL ($5,900) vs. ORL
Stopping by our Advanced Lineups page throughout the day is a great way to polish your builds. Despite the reliable rotations of playoff teams, you should never set it and forget it in the bubble, as anything can happen on short notice. Rest assured, we'll be on top of it all. Best of luck!
