This article is part of our DraftKings NBA series.
Monday offers us a six-game slate to get back into the swing of things after a holiday weekend.
SLATE OVERVIEW
PHO (-5) @ CHA O/U: 225
PHI (-5.5) vs. UTA O/U: 207
ATL (-6.5) vs. GS O/U: 223
IND (-6.5) @ MEM O/U: 217
MIL (-15.5) vs. NY O/U: 223
SAC (-5) vs. CHI O/U: 211.5
I think my favorite game of the night is GS/ATL as it features a very special elite option along with some great GS value plays. I'm also a fan of the PHI end of the UTA/PHI game despite the low O/U. PHO has a lot of value I'm interested in as well.
Even with a 223 total, the NY/MIL game didn't have much exposure in my builds.
INJURY SITUATIONS TO MONITOR
Jonas Valanciunas (illness) QUESTIONABLE
The Memphis center came down with a bug and missed Sunday's game, and there's currently no word on his condition tonight. With Brandon Clarke (back) also questionable, Bruno Caboclo ($3,000) will be in line for increased minutes if Valanciunas doesn't play and Clarke remains out.
Draymond Green (rest) OUT
Kevon Looney ($3,400) will return to action Monday, so there's a good chance that he will get an extended run in Green's absence.
Josh Richardson (hamstring) DOUBTFUL
The standard pivot here is Furkan Korkmaz ($4,100), but I think Ben Simmons ($8,300) will do his best to keep things together in the backcourt.
ELITE PLAYERS
We have three players above 10k on today's slate, and Giannis Antetokounmpo ($12,000) is at the very top of the list. Although guys in this range won't fit in with standard value calculations and will set you back some coin, their sheer upside makes it prudent to go with one or two elites if there's enough value at the bottom to offset the cost. With that said, I think Giannis is a bit too expensive, and if you went that way, you could really only just afford him by himself. I favor two other elites instead.
Trae Young, ATL ($10,500) vs, GS
This is a great matchup for Young against the depleted Warriors. Golden State falls short in just about every imaginable defensive category, and Draymond Green is resting Monday. My only worry is that this game could get way out of hand, but you'll never see Young dip below 30 minutes.
Joel Embiid, PHI ($10,300) vs. UTA
We've got some recent history to draw from in this matchup, as Embiid put up 56 DKFP opposite Rudy Gobert in their previous matchup. I'd be thrilled with that number, as it would put Embiid just shy of 5x value, and there's always the potential for his production to go even higher.
EXPECTED CHALK AND MID-LEVEL TARGETS
Zach LaVine, CHI ($7,900) @ SAC
LaVine struggled a bit over the holidays but put up 47.5 DKFP against Portland on Friday. When he's on the slate, he will always be a top ceiling candidate for me. He is a solid multi-category contributor who is typically more of a GPP play due to the Bulls' variance, but I like him in cash tonight as well.
Kelly Oubre, PHO ($7,000) @ CHA
With Oubre's lines taking a hit over the past week, I think his ownership will dwindle a bit as well. I'll take him against a Charlotte defense that's given up an average of about 30 DKFP per game to Oubre's position. As long as he gets enough minutes, I think we'll see him return to form Monday.
Ricky Rubio, PHO ($6,700) @ CHA
As I said above, I like the dynamic of this game for the Suns. Rubio showed no ill effects after posting 33 minutes against Dallas, so I think his back problem is behind him for now. Rubio's totals will depend on how many assists he can collect, but it's a risk I'm willing to take due to the matchup.
Jeremy Lamb, IND ($6,300) @ MEM
Lamb's floor is incredibly solid, and it's floating right around the magic number of 38, which is what we need from every position to get to 300 DKFP. That's a safe cash number and a low-end GPP score, and we've seen Lamb push his numbers into the low 40's a few times already this season.
Khris Middleton, MIL ($5,700) vs. NY
I think we have to risk the potential minute restriction and go with Middleton when he's at this low price, even if he does come off the bench. The Bucks have elected to play it safe with Middleton so far, but sooner or later they have to take the gloves off so he can get back to posting reliable floors once again.
VALUE PLAYS
Willie Cauley-Stein, GS ($5,200) @ ATL
With Draymond Green out, I think the big man will move into a slightly bigger role Monday. His price relative to his 30-DKFP floor puts him just above $170 per DKFP, but that could dip even lower if he exceeds his usual projections.
Ky Bowman, GS ($5,100) @ ATL
Bowman is my favorite among the motley crew of Warriors tonight. Green was actually seen at the point several times over the past week, and with him out, Bowman should be clear to take the helm once again opposite the Hawks.
Also consider: Dennis Smith Jr, NY ($3,200)
As listed above, I think you'll be well serviced by Korkmaz tonight, and I would keep tabs on Valanciunas' status throughout the day so you can decide if going very low with Caboclo is a sound play. I'm also very much into Looney's return, as we may even see him draw a start in his first game back.
