This article is part of our DraftKings NBA series.
Team Analysis
Offense to Use:
Washington Wizards at Atlanta Hawks
Obviously the Warriors/Trail Blazers game will be heavily targeted, but a few factors make the Wizards a bit more appealing as a stack. Golden State could run away with Game 4, which would lessen the value of top options like Steph Curry, Klay Thompson and Draymond Green. But the Wizards are in a spot to bounce back following a tough 116-98 loss in Game 3. John Wall ($10,200) has been unstoppable in the series, averaging 53.8 DKFP. There's a chance Otto Porter ($4,900) won't play, which would give value plays Kelly Oubre Jr. ($3,600) and Bojan Bogdanovic ($3,400) more appeal.
Defense to Avoid:
Milwaukee Bucks at Toronto Raptors
So far, the series between the Bucks and Raptors has been an offensive struggle. Milwaukee has limited Toronto to less than 90 points in three of four games, with DeMar DeRozan and Kyle Lowry taking turns struggling on offense for the Raptors. The inconsistency in both their games is concerning and will make it easier for the Bucks to limit the amount of points they allow. This pick also has a lot to do with the over/under being the lowest of the three games (192) by a wide margin.
DAILY PLAYER RECOMMENDATIONS
Damian Lillard, PG, POR vs. GS ($9,000): If this is going to be Lillard and the Trail Blazers' last game of the season, expect the All-Star point guard to go out in style. He could also lead the Blazers to an unlikely victory to stay alive in the series. Either way, his DFS output should be impressive. In Games 1 and 3, which weren't blowouts, Lillard scored 34 and 31 points, respectively. He's struggled with his shot, but has still managed to average 25.7 points per game (39.5 DKFP). Take away Game 2 and Lillard is averaging 49.75 DKFP in two games, 5x his current DraftKings salary.
Bradley Beal, SG, WAS at ATL ($7,400): Like DeRozan in Game 4 for the Raptors, expect a better shooting performance from Beal in Game 4 for the Wizards. Beal went 6-for-20 from the field, including 0-for-6 from beyond the arc, his worst 3-point display since March 1 (1-for-6). Beal scored 28 points in two of four games vs. the Hawks during the regular season and has at least 20 field-goal attempts in each game this series. The opportunity is there for Beal to have a big night and his ownership percentage should be tournament-friendly.
Brandon Jennings, PG, WAS at ATL ($3,200): Should Porter be out for the Wizards, it would open up more minutes for Jennings off the bench. Playing behind Wall is obviously not ideal, but Jennings has reached 17 minutes in each of the past two games with at least 18 DKFP. That's just under 6x his salary in back-to-back contests, which makes Jennings a solid value play. He's also done a nice job taking care of the ball with an 11:2 assist to turnover ratio.
Draymond Green, PF/C, GS at POR ($8,400):Draymond Green is doing Draymond Green things in the playoffs again. Here's his line in three games vs. the Trail Blazers: 11.3 PPG, 10.7 RPG, 8.7 APG, 4.7 BPG, 2.0 SPG for 52.0 DKFP per game. He's shooting a high percentage from distance albeit in limited attempts, and his defense has been on full display with at least three blocks in each game. If you're worried about the return of Kevin Durant, don't be. Green had his best performance of the series (19 points, 12 rebounds, nine assists and five blocks) in Game 1 prior to Durant's injury.
Evan Turner, SG/SF, POR vs. GS ($5,500): Turner had an up-and-down season but has turned his defense into a valuable tool to provide value in DFS. Because the Trail Blazers need Turner to try and limit the Splash Brothers, he's averaging around 34 minutes per game. He's gone for at least 34.5 DKFP in two of three games in the series, and was a huge factor in a tight Game 3 loss (17 points, eight rebounds in 40 minutes). If Turner can be aggressive on offense and get to the line again, his chances of another solid DFS night are likely.
Tony Snell, SG/SF, MIL at TOR ($4,100): Snell is shooting 50% (13-of-26) from beyond the arc in the series vs. the Raptors, and is coming off 19 points (5-of-10 from distance) for 26.0 DKFP in the Game 4 loss, leading the Bucks in scoring. The Raptors will continue to hone in on the Greek Freak and Khris Middleton has been reluctant to shoot all series. Snell could match his Game 4 performance considering he shot 7-of-13 from downtown in Games 1 and 2 in Toronto.
Paul Millsap, PF/C, ATL vs. WAS ($8,000): You're almost forced to use either Green or Millsap at center because the rest of the options are bleak. With Jusuf Nurkic unavailable, outside of the top two you're picking between Serge Ibaka, Dwight Howard and Marcin Gortat. So roll with Millsap (because you're already using Green at PF) and try not to remember his dud in Game 1. Millsap has a double-double in back-to-back games with at least 27 points, 10 boards and four assists in each contest.
Greg Monroe, MIL at TOR ($5,700): As far as cash games are concerned, Monroe is turning in great stat lines so far in the series, averaging 31.3 DKFP in four games. He's outperformed starter Thon Maker ($3,400) and is more affordable than Ibaka, Howard and Gortat. Monroe is the Bucks' second best option on offense behind Antetokounmpo, and should continue to dominate Toronto's frontcourt on the glass, ripping down at least seven rebounds in three of four games.
JaVale McGee, GS at POR ($3,700):JaVale McGee? JaVale McGee. Since the series began, McGee's price has risen $1,100 thanks to back-to-back games with 15 and 14 points, respectively. He's mostly getting high percentage looks at the rim created from Golden State's incredible ball movement, resulting in McGee shooting 16-of-19 (84.2%) from the floor. At some point, perhaps when the Warriors are up by 20, McGee will eclipse 20 minutes and grossly outperform his salary. That point may come in Game 4 on Monday.
