This article is part of our DraftKings NBA series.
Team Analysis
Offense to Use:
Golden State Warriors at Denver Nuggets
You can take your pick here because the books expect each team to score around 120 points. The Warriors get the clear nod over the Nuggets, with Steph Curry and Co. averaging 124.6 points in their past seven games. Golden State threw up a lopsided number on Denver on Jan. 2 in a 127-119 win. A lot of lineups will be stacking players from both teams, so go with the value over some of the high-priced studs. Another offense that has been sneaky good lately is the Jazz, who are at home vs. the Clippers.
Defense to Avoid:
Miami Heat vs. Orlando Magic
The pressure of the streak is over for the Heat, who won 13 in a row before losing to the 76ers on Saturday. Miami allowed 98.8 points per game during the streak, which would rank 3rd in the NBA over a full season. The Magic and Heat are each going to try and slow things down, with Orlando ranking 19th (98.3) in pace, while Miami (97.6) ranks 22nd. If Dion Waiters returns for the Heat, that would improve their offense, which could make the Magic desperate. Orlando is prone to turnovers, averaging 16 during a four-game losing streak.
Teams on Back-to-Backs:
First game: None
Second game: Pistons, Spurs, Pelicans
DAILY PLAYER RECOMMENDATIONS
Klay Thompson, SG, GSW at DEN ($6,700): The stars don't need to align in your horoscope for you to realize that Thompson might be a smart play. The game will by all accounts be a shootout, something Thompson is more than comfortable playing in. He's averaging 27.7 PPG while shooting 54.2 percent from distance in his past six (40.4 DKFP per game). The Nuggets are allowing the most points to shooting guards, and Thompson has shot 63.6 percent from 3-point range in two games against Denver this season.
Tim Hardaway Jr., PG/SG, ATL at POR ($5,800): A lot of lineups might see red next to Hardaway Jr. and forget that the Hawks are playing the Trail Blazers, who have lost three of their past four home games. Hardaway Jr. is averaging 20.0 PPG (31.7 DKFP) in the past six games, and has hit at least two 3-pointers in seven of his past 10. The Trail Blazers are 28th in opponent 3-point field goal percentage (38.1) and are allowing 10.1 3-pointers per game this season. Hardaway Jr. is cheap and could go under the radar for use in tournaments.
Jamal Murray, PG/SG, DEN vs. GSW ($3,800): We've been over this game already. Murray has gotten a big boost from the injury to Emmanuel Mudiay, so monitor his status heading into the game. But if Mudiay sits again, Murray should see extra playing time. He's been incredibly efficient though, averaging 21.1 points per 48 minutes. Murray has also scored in double figures in six of his past 10, and the Nuggets will need his shot if they get into a hole early.
Blake Griffin, PF, LAC at UTA ($9,000): If you're feeling crazy and playing a huge tournament, Griffin is interesting. The matchup alone should scare off prospective owners, plus with 11 games, plenty will look to cheaper options at forward and pay up at guard. This could create a nice contrarian scenario for Griffin, who is averaging 51.3 DKFP in the past six games. He managed a double-double (18-10) against Utah earlier in the season, so it isn't like his floor is incredibly low either.
Robert Covington, SF, PHI at CHA ($6,200): If there's one constant in this world, it's Covington's ability to carelessly launch as many shots as possible. He's gotten away from that lately, and what do you know, it's actually working out for him. Covington scored 19 points (6-of-12, 5-of-6) with seven boards, four steals and two blocks vs. the Heat on Saturday, good for 41.25 DKFP. Joel Embiid isn't returning any time soon, which leaves a void only Covington can fill in the 76ers offense.
Solomon Hill, SF, NO at PHO ($4,000): Aside from the Warriors-Nuggets game,
Pelicans-Suns is your second best bet to find high scoring. And since we're playing a numbers game, Hill is an option having played at least 25 minutes in nine of 10 games. He's dirt cheap, and while he doesn't possess much upside, his floor is safe enough to roll with given the game script. If Hill can get to double figures in scoring, his chances of hitting 30-plus DKFP increase.
Marc Gasol, MEM at BKN ($7,600): Gasol may be incredibly boring (as a DFS pick of course), but vs. the Nets you'll be able to stomach him. The center has been an incredibly safe play, scoring at least 36.25 DKFP in seven of the past 10 games. Gasol's high floor is a credit to his great court vision, which allows him to average 4.2 dimes per game, so he isn't the type of center reliant on getting a double-double. Still, that seems incredibly likely too, considering the Nets are tied for 27th in rebounding differential (-3.8).
Frank Kaminsky, PF/C, CHA vs. PHI ($5,700): Kaminsky has been a stud filling in for Cody Zeller in the starting lineup, scoring over 37.75 DKFP in each of three starts over the past three games. He has at least five assists in two of three, and has a steal in six straight. Kaminsky hasn't shot the ball well, but the 76ers don't exactly instill confidence on defense, as they're in the middle of the pack in defensive efficiency (15th; 105.9). Should Zeller sit again (he's doubtful), Kaminsky will be heavily played and should be a cash-game staple.
Alex Len, PHO vs. NO ($4,500): Len is another young center who will only really produce should his veteran teammate be unable to play. Tyson Chandler (ankle) sat Saturday, and Len scored 13 points with eight rebounds before fouling out at 26.0 DKFP. The fouls are a concern, particularly for Len's chances of playing 30 minutes, but he's reached double-digit scoring in two straight.
