Austin Riley

27-Year-Old Third Baseman3B

Atlanta Braves

2024 Stats

AVG

.256

RBI

Rest-of-Season Projections

AVG

RBI

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2024 Fantasy Outlook

Riley and Ohtani are the only two players in baseball with at least 30 homers, 90 runs, and 90 RBIs in each of the past three seasons. Whereas Ohtani has had to do a lot of the heavy lifting on his club in previous seasons, Riley is just one very well-positioned player in the lineup with Acuna Jr and Albies in front of him and Olson behind him in the lineup. The presence of speed in front of him allows him to see a lot of fastballs, and he hit 22 of them for homers along with a .290 average. Getting on base in front of Olson and Ozuna is how someone with slightly better than average speed scored 117 runs, exceeding his previous career high by 26 runs. We see no reason why Riley cannot keep his 30/90/90 streak going another season as nothing is changing in the powerful Atlanta offense in 2024. Riley is not going to help you in the running game, but that is the only true flaw in his fantasy vitae as he heads into his peak power production years at the hot corner. Read Past Outlooks

RANKS

Rest of Season

Dynasty

From Preseason

#18

ADP

League Majors

Bats R

Throws R

40 Man Yes

Height 6'3"

Weight 240

DOB 4/2/1997

Born Memphis, TN

College None

Drafted 2015 ATL

Not returning in 2024

3BAtlanta Braves

Hand

September 24, 2024

Atlanta manager Brian Snitker said Tuesday that Riley (hand) won't return this season, Grant McAuley of 92.9 The Game Atlanta reports.

ANALYSIS
The 27-year-old underwent a CT scan Monday which showed that his hand fracture is healing slower than expected, which will prevent Riley from having a chance to take the field again this season. Atlanta is currently 1.5 games back of the final wild-card spot in the National League, but Riley won't be an option to play even if the team makes a playoff run. The third baseman closes out 2024 with 19 homers, 56 RBI, 63 runs and a .256/.322/.461 slash line in 110 games.

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Batting Stats

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2024

2023

2022

2021

2020

2019

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2023 MLB Game Log

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2022 MLB Game Log

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2021 MLB Game Log

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2020 MLB Game Log

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Batting Order Slot Breakdown

vs Right-Handed Pitchers

vs RHP

vs Left-Handed Pitchers

vs LHP

Left/Right Batting Splits

Since 2022

+17%

OPS vs LHP

2024

Even Split

2023

+12%

OPS vs LHP

2022

+34%

OPS vs LHP

	OPS	PA	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG
Since 2022vs Left	.955	438	63	27	62	1	.290	.374	.580
Since 2022vs Right	.816	1439	207	67	184	4	.267	.331	.485
2024vs Left	.784	117	18	5	9	0	.235	.333	.451
2024vs Right	.783	352	45	14	47	0	.263	.318	.464
2023vs Left	.941	149	24	11	28	0	.289	.362	.578
2023vs Right	.841	566	93	26	69	3	.280	.341	.500
2022vs Left	1.084	172	21	11	25	1	.329	.413	.671
2022vs Right	.811	521	69	27	68	1	.255	.328	.483
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Home/Away Batting Splits

Since 2022

+17%

OPS at Home

2024

+22%

OPS at Home

2023

+8%

OPS at Home

2022

+22%

OPS at Home

	OPS	PA	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG
Since 2022Home	.916	893	140	52	125	3	.291	.358	.558
Since 2022Away	.785	984	130	42	121	2	.255	.325	.459
2024Home	.871	208	33	11	32	0	.273	.341	.529
2024Away	.714	261	30	8	24	0	.244	.307	.408
2023Home	.897	346	59	17	44	2	.295	.364	.532
2023Away	.828	369	58	20	53	1	.268	.328	.500
2022Home	.964	339	48	24	49	1	.297	.363	.601
2022Away	.792	354	42	14	44	1	.249	.336	.456
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Stat Review

How does Austin Riley compare to other hitters?

This section compares his stats with all batting seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 400 plate appearances)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity and Barrels/PA % are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 400 PA) and Hard Hit Rate is benchmarked against last season's data (min 400 PA). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.

BB/K
Walk to strikeout ratio
BB Rate
The percentage of plate appearances resulting in a walk.
K Rate
The percentage of plate appearances resulting in a strikeout.
BABIP
Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many of a batter’s balls in play go for hits.
ISO
Isolated Power. Slugging percentage minus batting average. A computation used to measure a batter's raw power.
AVG
Batting average. Hits divided by at bats.
OBP
On Base Percentage. A measure of how often a batters reaches base. Roughly equal to number of times on base divided by plate appearances.
SLG
Slugging Percentage. A measure of the batting productivity of a hitter. It is calculated as total bases divided by at bats.
OPS
On base plus slugging. THe sum of a batter's on-base percentage and slugging percentage.
wOBA
Weighted on-base average. Measures a player's overall offensive contributions per plate appearance. wOBA combines all the different aspects of hitting into one metric, weighting each of them in proportion to their actual run value.
Exit Velocity
The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
Hard Hit Rate
A measure of contact quality from Sports Info Solutions. This stat explains what percentage of batted balls were hit hard vs. medium or soft.
Barrels/PA
The percentage of plate appearances where a batter had a batted ball classified as a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.
Expected BA
Expected Batting Average.
Expected SLG
Expected Slugging Percentage.
Sprint Speed
The speed of a runner from home to first, in feet per second.
Ground Ball %
The percentage of balls put in play that are on the ground.
Line Drive %
The percentage of balls put in play that are line drives.
Fly Ball %
The percentage of balls put in play that are fly balls.

BB/K

0.31

BB Rate

7.9%

K Rate

25.2%

BABIP

.310

ISO

.205

AVG

.256

OBP

.322

SLG

.461

OPS

.783

wOBA

.342

Exit Velocity

93.3 mph

Hard Hit Rate

42.5%

Barrels/PA

9.8%

Expected BA

.272

Expected SLG

.517

Sprint Speed

22.6 ft/sec

Ground Ball %

35.9%

Line Drive %

21.0%

Fly Ball %

43.0%

Prospect Rankings History

View Complete Austin Riley Prospect Ranking History

Advanced Batting Stats

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Additional Stats

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Defensive Stats

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Stats Vs Upcoming Pitchers

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63 days ago

Todd Zola provides some data to help you determine whether even Aaron Judge is capable of slugging your team into contention over the season's final stretch.

Past Fantasy Outlooks

2023

2022

2021

2020

2019

2018

2017

2016

Riley now has 3.16 years of major league service (trust us, don't look it up) and has quickly established himself as one of the premier power hitters in baseball with elite metrics in barrel percentage, average exit velocity, hard hit percentage, and awesome walk-up music. The expected stats from 2021 told us the .300 average was an outlier, so the 30-point drop in batting average did not come as much of a surprise. That said, he does profile as someone who should see some type of bump in batting average with the shift rules changing this season. Sure, he doesn't walk that often and his strikeouts are a bit on the high side, but he's a modern day Mike Schmidt at the plate who may eventually need a new defensive position given his limitations at the hot corner. He is a solid four-category performer who continues to improve his draft status and finished this season as the 21st most valuable player in standard formats. There is a strong chance he does not make it to the third round this season, so plan accordingly.

When Riley debuted in 2019, he exhibited plus power with a high K%. In 2020, he significantly improved his plate skills at the expense of power. Last season, he maintained the better approach while reverting to 2019's power. Add in a lucky BABIP and Riley was one of the Senior Circuit's biggest surprises, finishing seventh in the MVP voting. Riley's BABIP was .368, 88 points higher than 2020, despite similar underlying metrics. His .303 average was above his .279 xBA. Riley's defense improved dramatically from a -10 defensive runs liability to a +13 asset. Riley's power is real as 2020 appears to be the outlier. His first half BABIP was .341, then it spiked to .397 after the break. The first half level is sustainable, landing Riley in range of his xBA. There's some risk, but the evidence points to Riley taking it to a new level and becoming one of the better options at a position lacking the usual depth.

It may not look like it at a glance, but Riley exhibited encouraging improvements in last season's abbreviated campaign. Better selectivity led to a spike in contact rate along with a bump in walks. Riley hit fewer flyballs, reducing power, but he did increase his average exit velocity. Unfortunately, hitting the ball with greater authority was not reflected in Riley's BABIP, though his Statcast xBA was considerably higher than his actual mark. In the field, Riley moved back to his natural spot at the hot corner where he finished last among qualified third baseman with -8 defensive runs saved. He was a below-average left fielder in 2019, so he needs to hit to assure playing time. Riley is due a positive batting-average correction, the extent of which will depend on how much of his contact gain he retains. The chance Riley hits more flyballs offers some power upside. However, poor defense could reduce playing time.

Baseball is a game of adjustments. After getting the call to the majors in mid-May, Riley went off for nine homers in his first 18 career games, and he still had an OPS north of .900 at the end of June. Then the league caught up to him. Riley hit .169/.221/.324 with a 41.6 K% from the beginning of July until his placement on the IL with a knee ligament issue in early August. He made it back in September but never made the necessary adjustments, slashing an even-worse .132/.190/.263 over the final month of the regular season. Riley was then left off the NLDS roster. Given Riley's pedigree, we should expect skills growth and for him to eventually adapt to the different ways pitchers are approaching him. However, until we see it on the field, there should be some trepidation toward investing heavily in a player with Riley's level of swing and miss. It's not even a lock that he breaks camp with the big club.

Remarkably little has changed regarding Riley's outlook since he made his full-season debut in 2016. The 6-foot-3, 220-pound third baseman still projects as a No. 5 hitter who should provide 30-plus homer power while hitting .250 or .260. He was promoted to Triple-A in early May and missed a month in the middle of the season with a knee injury. After the calendar turned to August, Riley really heated up, hitting .289/.333/.570 with eight home runs in 129 PA. However, strikeouts (31.8 K%) were still an issue during that run and he was not exhibiting much patience (4.8 BB%), so this was not a case of a player being unfairly held down for service time reasons. Riley still has significant approach issues to work on against Triple-A pitching and won't turn 22 until April 2. With the Braves signing Josh Donaldson to a one-year deal and Johan Camargo coming off a 3.3-win (fWAR) season, there won't be any rush to get Riley to Atlanta.

It is pretty obvious at this point in the Braves' rebuild that Riley is the third baseman of the future. He held his own (109 wRC+) as one of the second youngest position players in the Florida State League, prompting an aggressive July promotion to Double-A. That's when he really made his mark. Were it not for teammate and baseball prodigy Ronald Acuna, Riley would have easily been the youngest player to get 200 plate appearances in the Southern League, yet he still proceeded to be 62 percent better than league average while posting his best BB/K (0.40) since rookie ball. He has prototypical size (6-foot-3, 220 pounds) for the hot corner and enough power to challenge for 30-homer campaigns in his peak years, especially in that park. He does not project to hit .300 in the big leagues, but he could be a .270 hitter who walks a decent amount and hits in an advantageous spot in the lineup. If he handles Triple-A the way he handled Double-A, we could see him in Atlanta this summer.

Riley celebrated his 19th birthday on April 2 and five days later got his first taste of life in the middle of a Low-A lineup. He struggled for the first couple months, as most teenagers do when they first face pitchers who can occasionally locate mid-90s cheese and spin breaking balls. However, he made the necessary adjustments and hit .289/.348/.581 with 17 home runs and a 61:22 K:BB over his final 279 plate appearances with Rome. Also notable is the fact that Riley cut his strikeout rate from 32.6 percent in the first half to 21.8 percent in the second half. In a system flush with high-upside arms yet light on impact bat-first position players, Riley boasts the most raw power on the farm. That 65-grade power makes him a top-five third base prospect in the game and will allow him to challenge for the home run crown with High-A Florida while being one of the youngest hitters in the Florida State League.

Standing 6-foot-2 and 230 pounds, Riley generates impressive bat speed and power from the right side of the plate, more than enough to put him on the radar in long-term dynasty and keeper leagues. A supplemental first-round pick in 2015, Riley didn't exactly hit the ground running as a professional, batting .163 with no home runs in his first 14 games with the Gulf Coast League Braves. Riley would go on to hit 12 home runs in his final 46 games between the GCL and Danville of the Appalachian League. He also showed good patience for an 18-year-old, and has the arm to stick at third base. Look for Riley to receive his first full-season assignment in 2016.

More Fantasy News

Could have cast removed Monday

3BAtlanta Braves

Hand

September 20, 2024

Riley (hand) will undergo a CT scan Monday to determine whether he can have his cast removed, Justin Toscano of The Atlanta Journal-Constitution reports.

ANALYSIS
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Lands on 10-day IL

3BAtlanta Braves

Hand

August 20, 2024

Atlanta placed Riley on the 10-day injured list Tuesday with a fractured right hand.

ANALYSIS
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Set to miss 6-to-8 weeks

3BAtlanta Braves

Hand

August 19, 2024

Atlanta announced Monday that Riley was diagnosed with a fractured right hand following an MRI and is expected to miss 6-to-8 weeks.

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X-rays inconclusive

3BAtlanta Braves

Hand

August 18, 2024

Riley (hand) is set to undergo further evaluation after initial X-rays and testing were inconclusive Sunday, Justin Toscano of The Atlanta Journal-Constitution reports.

ANALYSIS
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Exits after HBP

3BAtlanta Braves

Hand

August 18, 2024

Riley was removed from Sunday's game against the Angels after being hit by a pitch on his right hand, Justin Toscano of The Atlanta Journal-Constitution reports.

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Latest Fantasy Rumors

Could move up lineup

3BAtlanta Braves

July 18, 2024

Mark Bowman of MLB.com suggests that Atlanta would benefit from Riley batting second in the lineup against right-handed pitchers.

ANALYSIS
The switch-hitting Ozzie Albies has a .648 OPS versus right-handers this season, so it could make sense to drop him down the lineup. Riley's .257/.329/.450 slash line this year would be his worst in all three categories since his sophomore campaign in 2020, but he's still hitting righties well with an .811 OPS. The third baseman has mostly hit out of the No. 3 hole this year, but he's also batted fifth and second, the latter of which happened briefly while Albies was out with a toe injury.

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