Todd's Takes: Altitude and Attitude

Rocky Marciano, the '72 Dolphins and Coors Field

Starting or sitting a pitcher in Coors Field can occasionally be a tough decision. It's usually pretty easy. No thanks.

What about the top starters, should they be active on the road against the Rockies? This week, team managers had to decide whether to deploy Sean Manaea, Mike Clevinger, Joe Musgrove, Blake Snell, Jose Quintana, Mitch Keller and Bryse Wilson. The Pirates starters are clearly benched. We know what happened with the Padres hurlers, so we may be biased, but a case could be made for all four, with Musgrove's clearly better than the rest. Manaea's two-start week was also a factor for some, since he's slated to pitch in Arizona over the weekend. In full disclosure, in my Wednesday ESPN notes, I recommended starting Musgrove.

This isn't a discussion about starting the specific San Diego pitchers. However, when I offered the Musgrove advice, I ignored something I have been saying for years.

Coors Field is undefeated, and no one is immune to its powers.

The venue is better for runs than homers. In fact, there are other more favorable parks in terms of power. On average, Coors Field increases runs by 35 percent. A pitcher with a 3.50 neutralized ERA would post a 4.73 ERA if all their starts were in Coors Field, at least on paper.

Here is a list of every pitchers with at least three starts in Colorado since 2020. Their numbers in Coors, and their aggregate road numbers over this span are included.

Aggregate numbers:

Again, this isn't meant to suggest to use Gallen, Gausman, Corbin and Stroman in Coors because they've had success. It's fleeting. Not to mention, many of the other hurlers have recorded solid games in Colorado. However, according to the numbers, expect a pitcher's numbers to suffer in Coors Field, regardless of the source.

On paper, the 4.30 road ERA translates to 5.81. so the actual results are within range, especially since the sample is biased with pitchers performing well enough to remain a starter since 2020.

Of course, league format and team needs are integral component of the decision. In head-to-head leagues, the damage lasts one week before the slate is erased. In points leagues, it depends on the scoring, contrasting points lost for baserunners and runs allowed with those gained from wins, strikeouts and innings.

Each pitcher needs to be considered on an individual basis, with an honest assessment of their numbers driving the choice. Everyone should be expected to allow more traffic, yield more runs and fan fewer hitters in a Coors start. If the adjusted expectations are still palatable when considering the scoring and team needs, go ahead, your team, your call.

Just remember, Coors Field, like Rocky Marciano and the '72 Dolphins, is undefeated.

Strikeouts are Boring

One of the common narratives is that strikeouts elevate pitch counts. I heard it earlier in the week when Blake Snell was on the hill in Coors Field.

A couple of days earlier, friend and colleague Derek Carty posted:

Derek has been pounding this point for several years. He's a smart guy. Let's crunch some numbers.

Sure, on the average, it takes an extra pitch to secure a strikeout compared to an out on a ball in play. Though, the 3.9 pitches per out includes strikeouts, so the number if probably a little lower.

Pitchers are going to collect a baseline number of strikeouts, contributing to the pitch count. Say a hurler garners 10 strikeouts in five frames. He was probably going to have five or six regardless, so we're talking an extra five to seven pitches. Is that what drives up the count? Sure, maybe a little, but a strikeout obviously generates an out, almost assuredly without any advancement on the bases.

A walk averages two more pitches, along with forcing the pitcher to face another batter. That's six more pitches, along with often forcing the hurler to the stretch, where most guys are less effective.

In terms of extra pitches, one walk equals about five strikeouts. Which drives up a pitch count?

Of course, a certain number of walks should be expected, so it's more like every extra walk adds as many pitches as around five extra strikeouts.

So yeah, on average, it requires an extra pitch to garner a strikeout, but walks and baserunners in general do the majority of pitch count damage. The ancillary benefit of a strikeout (no base advancement) helps reduce the "on paper" added pitches to a lower number from a practical sense.

Sorry Crash Davis, Derek is right. Strikeouts are not boring, nor fascist.

Box Score Blitz (Friday, July 15)

• PHI 2, MIA 1: That's 13 straight starts of at least seven innings for Sandy Alcantara, his third with double-digit strikeouts. Woah, wait, he fanned 12 in eight innings but only threw 106 pitches, how can that be? On the other hand, Seranthony Dominguez punched out one while securing his fourth save, but it took 33 pitches since he walked three. 
• ATL 8, WSH 4: Ian Anderson needed 101 pitches to get through 5.1 innings, not because he fanned five, but because he walked three and allowed five hits. (I promise that's the last one.) Still, he limited the Nationals to just one run. Since being sent back to Triple-A Gwinnett on May 1, Kyle Muller has registered a 2.77 ERA and 1.07 WHIP, with 89 K and just 19 BB in 74.2 innings, so it would behoove Anderson to become more pitch-efficient. Will Smith hadn't pitched since July 9, so he was brought in to get some work, but he gave up three runs, requiring A.J. Minter to collect a one-out save. It appears to be a straight platoon between Adam Duvall and Eddie Rosario, with Duvall taking advantage of the start against Patrick Corbin with a 3-for-5 effort, including a homer. 
• BOS 5, NYY 4 (F/11): Garrett Whitlock returned to multi-inning relief work by retiring all six Yankees he faced. He's one of the better non-closing, non-starting pitchers for fantasy purposes. Tanner Houck blew the save on his own throwing error  but is still the primary closer. However, there's a chance Boston brings someone in before the trade deadline. The Red Sox took advantage of what appeared to be a low strike zone, holding Aaron Judge to an 0-for-5 day with two strikeouts. While I'm not saying there weren't any questionable calls (there were), I wish we knew more about how accurately the two-dimensional rectangle depicts the three-dimensional strike zone.
• TOR 8, KC 1: Alek Manoah took advantage of the depleted Royals lineup with seven solid frames. I still anticipate more strikeouts from the righty, but later rather than sooner. That is, it may not be this season, which may drive his 2023 draft cost above my liking since many will overpay for artificially low surface stats. Matt Chapman continues to be a buy-low, as he's crushed 16 balls over 95 mph over his last nine games, including 13 over 100 mph and seven exceeding 105 mph (three of which came last night). 
• TB 5, BAL 4: With Shane Baz (elbow) sidelined for a while, Luis Patino is the next man up. He struggled last night, but it was more of an emergency outing. With his 0-for-4 effort, Adley Rutschman is amid a 7-for-46 slump, though a 16.4 percent walk rate and 21.8 percent strikeout rate suggest patience. The rookie is not overmatched, just in a BABIP rut.
• CLE 6, DET 5: The Guardians' bullpen deserves credit for this win with 5.1 scoreless innings. Trevor Stephan collected his second save with Emmanuel Clase unavailable after pitching in three of the prior four games, including the past two.
• SEA 8, TEX 3: Robbie Ray has now posted a 1.36 ERA and 0.76 WHIP over his last 46.1 frames, fanning 58 along the way. Julio Rodriguez clocked his first career grand slam as he continues to marvel. With Kyle Lewis (concussion) and Mitch Haniger (ankle) nearing returns, Justin Upton and his .471 OPS are likely to be designated for assignment soon.
• CHW 6, MIN 2: Michael Kopech secured his third win, but his last start before the break continued a string of subpar efforts, as he's recorded a 5.74 ERA and 1.60 WHIP over his previous six games, fanning only 23 with 18 walks in those 31.1 stanzas. Luis Robert left early with dizziness and is questionable for the rest of the weekend.
• OAK 5, HOU 1: Jose Urquidy continued to pitch well with nine punchouts in 6.1 innings, but the Astros sticks were stifled by Cole Irvin. Already missing Michael Brantley (shoulder) and Yordan Alvarez (hand), Houston played without Jose Altuve (leg) and Yuli Gurriel. Altuve is slated to serve as the DH over the weekend, then he'll skip the All-Star game with Cleveland's Andres Gimenez getting the start at the keystone. Gurriel was just given a day off as he's been slumping lately.
• STL 7, CIN 3: Andre Pallante garnered his third win as the Reds could only tally three runs against him despite six hits and three walks. Ryan Helsley cemented his ninth-inning duties with his eighth save, while Giovanny Gallegos was the first arm out the bullpen. Tyler O'Neill played his second game since coming off the IL, but Nolan Arenado may miss the rest of the weekend with a sore back.
• COL 13, PIT 2: A combined 0-for-11 from Daniel Vogelbach, Josh VanMeter and Ben Gamel cost your humble pundit a chance at a 2023 NFBC Main Event entry, not to mention a money finish in the NFBC's weekly Friday contest. Finishing fourth when they pay top-three is a special kind of tilt, but I digress. Colorado will have played 51 home and 42 road games before the break, so they'll only play 30 more home games compared to 39 away from Coors. This isn't a signal to deal C.J. Cron and Brendan Rodgers, but beware of someone trying to deal them away because of the schedule.
• LAD 9, LAA 1: Clayton Kershaw is good at pitching. Will Smith and Justin Turner combined for a 7-for-10 night, scoring four and knocking in five. After playing in 151 games last season, Turner has played in 83 so far this year. If someone in your league is concerned about his health, he could be a nice add-on in a trade.
• SD 5, ARI 3: Yu Darvish surrendered a pair of homers, but he also fanned nine in his second straight seven-inning outing, setting himself up for a solid second half. Ketel Marte cranked his third homer in his last four games. He's hit five balls over 100 mph in this span, so hopefully he's snapping out of a power malaise.
• SF 8, MIL 5: Last Tuesday, Josh Hader's ERA was a tidy 1.82, but now it's a bloated 4.50 after his second straight blow-up, the time a result of a Mike Yastrzemski grand slam. Hader still is a big boon in saves, strikeouts and WHIP, but a 4.50 ERA will leave a mark. Now that they're mostly healthy, the Giants are back to the Strat-O-Matic approach that was so successful last season.