The Z Files: First Half Earnings Review: Catchers and Infielders

Everyone loves lists, and I need something to write about, so let's do this. I'll post the earnings leaders through the break. You get to see how some of your player fared, and I have a jumping off point to write about some players. Deal? Cool, let's do it.

These earnings numbers are for mixed leagues with 5x5 scoring. Stats are through Sunday, July 17.

Catchers

General Observations

We knew the position was weak, but not to this extent. That said, it's encouraging to see new blood infiltrating the ranks, with Jonah Heim, Tyler Stephenson, William Contreras and Cal Raleigh cracking the Top-15. It shouldn't be long before Adley Rutschman, MJ Melendez and Keibert Ruiz do the same. Not to mention, Henry Davis, Tyler Soderstrom, Gabriel Moreno, Francisco Alvarez and Shea Langeliers are knocking at the door (with Moreno already entering the room).

Most Likely to Drop Out

Stephenson and Perez don't count since they're injured. Jose Trevino is a great story, but he's had some good fortune. He's already set a career high in homers, but his average flyball distance is a career low. Some of that is the ball, but it also dovetails with his flyball exit velocity. A quick way to gauge luck in this realm is comparing the double to home run ratio. Trevino usually clubs more doubles than long balls, but this season he has only six two-baggers compared to seven big flies. Further, almost all of Trevino's power is to the pull side, so he's not taking advantage of the short porch in right field.

Conspicuous By Their Absence

Yasmani Grandal: Yes, Grandal has been hurt, but he was slashing just .185/.294/.237 with two homers in 201 plate appearances before returning for the White Sox over the weekend. Grandal hit well in rehab and should be the primary backstop, but Seby Zavala deserves to receive a decent share of playing time as the backup.

Keibert Ruiz: Ruiz just missed making the list, but many tabbed him as a Top-10 receiver. In fact, he was initially the betting favorite to win NL Rookie of the Year until it was determined that even though he had not surpassed the at bats limit, he eclipsed the service time necessary to be eligible. On the field, his strikeout rate is low, as expected, but his 11th percentile hard hit rate is dampening his batting average. Ruiz doesn't loft the ball much, so he needs a BABIP higher than .267 to be productive in lieu of power. He's still just 23 years old, so expect Ruiz to hit the ball with more authority eventually, perhaps as early as the rest of this season.

Mitch Garver: The trade to Texas was supposed to help Garver, but he was struggling before his forearm woes in May. Garver is now out after having season-ending surgery. He's arbitration-eligible in 2023, but with Jonah Heim cementing his role as the regular, returning to Texas isn't a sure thing.

Salvador Perez: Perez struggled for most of the first half before undergoing surgery to repair the UCL in his left thumb. He hopes to return in late August.

Most Likely to Jump In

If Trevino is going to fall out of the Top-15, someone has to replace him. Grandal had an otherworldly second half last season, so he's capable, but Ruiz gets the nod. He's making frequent contact, so the next step is hitting the ball harder. His pedigree suggests he'll make it happen sooner rather than later.

Corner Infield

General Observations

While it hasn't really flown under the radar, Paul Goldschmidt's renaissance campaign isn't getting the credit it deserves. Sure, he's been a bit lucky, as his hard hit rate doesn't support his .388 BABIP, but sometimes variance is favorable. Other times it results in a .303 BABIP with similar underlying metrics, like it did in 2019.

In general, the position has held true to form. Considering the hot corner was expected to be weak, it's nice to see a near even distribution of first and third basemen.

Most Likely to Drop Out

Choosing Patrick Wisdom is picking the low-hanging fruit. Everyone has been waiting for Brandon Drury to revert to previous form, but his skills support his elevated performance. He may not maintain his current level, but hanging around the Top-20 is plausible.

Let's go a bit off the board with C.J. Cron. The Rockies schedule was very home-heavy before the break. Colorado is slated to play nine more games on the road than they play at home post-break, which will organically lessen Cron's numbers. Hitting a homer on the road in Milwaukee over the weekend doesn't help the argument, but American Family Field is better for power than Coors and Cron has a lot of tilts left in Arizona, San Diego, San Francisco and Los Angeles.

Conspicuous By Their Absence

Kris Bryant, Adalberto Mondesi, Anthony Rendon and Yoan Moncada all had (or still have) injury issues, though none were playing well when healthy.

Alex Bregman: Among those missing little time, Bregman is the biggest omission. Having no steals certainly hurts, even for a corner infielder, but a career-low .252 BABIP is the main culprit. That said, Bregman's underlying metrics point to an increase as he's just hit into some bad luck. A second-half rebound is likely.

Matt Chapman: Moving from RingCentral Coliseum to the Rogers Centre was supposed to help Chapman, and it has, just not to the expected extent. However, Chapman's indicators show he's been punishing the ball, with positive results beginning to manifest.

Jared Walsh: The signs were there, as Walsh's strikeout rate spiked last season, but based on his history there was reason to believe it would drop a bit this season. Unfortunately, it has continued to ascend, masking an improved exit velocity and hard-hit rate. Walsh's chase rate hasn't changed, he's just making less frequent contact when he does offer at pitches out of the zone. Last season's strikeout rate was 26 percent. It's up four ticks this year. We could just be witnessing variance, but I'm lowering my likely too rosy expectations.

Trey Mancini: Mancini has been a victim of the new Camden Yards dimensions. If you adjusted more than I did, nice job. His average flyball distance is the same as last season, but his power is down a bit. Mancini's average is up, which was to be expected with more acreage for flyballs to land in, but fewer homers has also lead to a drop in runs and RBI. That said, sitting in the two-hole with the improving Baltimore offense should result in more runs the rest of the season.

Most Likely to Jump In

Assuming Wisdom and Cron fall from the Top-20, a couple of replacements are needed. Bregman and Mancini could be the favorites, but don't sleep on Chapman. Since June 22, he's slashed .280/.324/.570.

Middle Infield

General Observations

While some of the first- and second-rounders aren't busts, only Trea Turner has produced as expected. There are a few rebounds (Tommy Edman, Gleyber Torres) as well some surprises (Thairo Estrada, Jon Berti). 

It's really good to see the likes of Jazz Chisholm and Andres Gimenez exhibit the talent everyone knew they had, as it wasn't clear that talent would manifest this soon. Perhaps Gimenez more than Chisholm, who was expected to excel, though maybe not to this extent. Of course, Chisholm is now hurt.

Most Likely to Drop Out

Injuries to Chisholm and Berti create two openings. Identifying a middle infielder to drop out via lesser play is a challenge.

Thairo Estrada may seem like the obvious choice, but he's on the list due to steals, and there isn't a reason to believe he'll slow down. He's never been a prolific base stealer. but his success rate has typically been good. Perhaps Gabe Kapler recognized this, leading to Estrada's 13-for-15 mark with more green lights.

Wow, this is tough. Several players are underperforming, but I don't see them getting worse. I'll reluctantly tab Amed Rosario as the one to drop out without injury as the reason. I don't have a very compelling argument other than his production is driven by getting on base, stealing and scoring, so a bit of bad luck will lower his OBP, with his production dropping accordingly. That said, Rosario's strikeout rate is a career low, which helps mitigate possible misfortune.

Conspicuous By Their Absence

An abundance of injuries reduce the possibilities. This isn't to say Ozzie Albies, Brandon Lowe, Jonathan India, Jean Segura, Nick Madrigal, Chris Taylor and Enrique Hernandez all would have made the list had they been healthy, but its unfair to call them out as disappointments. 

Jorge Polanco: Polanco (and Jeremy Pena) just missed the list. One was expected; the other not so much. Polanco's counting stats are fine, but his average is down, as both his contact and BABIP are on the lower end of his expected range.

Carlos Correa: Correa missed some time, but around 70 games should have been sufficient to make the cut with so many injured players not filling their expected spot. To be honest, Correa's performance has been reasonable. Unfortunately, his runs and RBI are artificially low. We don't think about bad luck with respect to runs and RBI, but he currently has 39 runs and 31 RBI in 303 plate appearances. Granted, the Twins' offense isn't as potent as the Astros', but 31 RBI is light.

Javier Baez: I'll take the L on Baez, as I thought he'd flourish in Detroit, especially on the basepaths. Surprisingly, strikeouts aren't the issue. While I won't go so far as to suggest he's trading contact for driving the ball, Baez is hitting the ball with much less authority, cratering his power. Plus, much to my chagrin, he's not running.

Kolten Wong: Wong has missed some time, and expecting Top-20 placement in a strong position is aggressive, but he's pacing for a career-low batting average. On the other hand, his support metrics indicate his .260 BABIP is artificially low, so a second-half boost is likely.

Max Muncy: Muncy has also hit into some bad luck, but he also picked the wrong season to become even more of a flyball hitter. He's lofting more balls, but the increased air resistance is keeping them in the yard, helping to generate a .177 BABIP.

Jonathan Schoop: Insinuating Schoop should be a Top-20 middle infielder is also a stretch, but with so many openings emanating from injuries, the opportunity was present. Instead, Schoop's power plummeted, though the ball and his home park did him no favors.

Most Likely to Jump In

There are so many middle infielders who missed time over the first half poised to salvage their season. Lowe and India lead the pack.

The two easy choices to improve are Polanco and Pena, since they barely missed. Simple variance could lift Polanco, while Pena likely would have made it if he didn't miss some time.

Oneil Cruz will need some help (and luck), but he has the skills to make the leap. Cruz's exit velocity and hard hit rate are stellar, he just needs to lower his 37 percent strikeout rate. Stealing bases is more than sprint speed, but he's in 99th percentile there, so it shouldn't take much to improve on his current 4-for-7 pace.

Look for Outfield, Starting Pitching and Relievers in a few days.