Regan's Rumblings: Dropped Players Worth a Look

Should I drop Kris Bryant?

Is Vlad Jr. a bust?

Should I trade Eloy Jimenez in my keeper league for Mike Minor?

It's natural to be frustrated when guys in whom we invest heavily get off to slow starts. These scenarios typically leave owners with four options:

1.      Keep starting a cold player in the hopes he'll come out of it.

2.      Keep him but bench him until he heats up.

3.      Drop him.

4.      Trade him, likely for less than you could have received earlier in the year.

For this week's piece, I'll take a look at a handful of guys who have seen their ESPN ownership percentages drop the most over the last week. Depending on the format and/or size of your league, this could represent an opportunity to grab a guy off the wire for free, or perhaps engineer a buy-low type of deal.

Jose Leclerc, RP, TEX

Last week ownership percentage: 81%

This week ownership percentage: 67%

Shawn Kelley is the reliever to own in Texas right now, followed by Chris Martin, but is Leclerc worth holding onto? In 10 or even 12-team mixed leagues with few bench slots, perhaps not, but the Rangers have every incentive to get Leclerc back into the role after signing him to a four-year extension this offseason. Leclerc has struggled with a 7.71 ERA this season, but in his first outing since losing his job, Leclerc retired the side, striking out a pair against the Blue Jays. For the year, his velocity is up over last year (96.1 mph avg. velo), and his 12.3 K/9 remains strong. Leclerc though has had major command and control issues, as his 6.9 BB/9 has spiked, and despite the added velocity, his swinging strike rate is less than half of last year's 17.1 percent at 8.1 percent this season. He's generating an improved 43.3 GB percentage, which is a positive, but after an unsustainable two percent HR/FB rate a year ago, that mark is 18.2 percent this year. Odds are that he'll spend a couple weeks "sorting stuff out" before returning to the closer role, but there seems little chance he's repeating last year's 1.56 ERA, which is fine, but just temper your expectations.

Kolten Wong, 2B, STL

Last week ownership percentage: 75%

This week ownership percentage: 65%

Wong got off to a great start, batting .316/.437/.614 through April 17, but since then, Wong has hit just .173/.306/.192. Overall, Wong is hitting a respectable .248/.376/.413 with solid counting stats, including four homers and six stolen bases, the latter matching what he put up all of last year. Wong though has been streaky throughout his career, and as per usual, he's struggled against southpaws, hitting just .160 against them in 30 PA. I would assume that Wong is getting dropped in leagues that utilize BA and not OBP, as he's always made good contact, striking out less than 15 percent of the time for four consecutive seasons. Guys like Jedd Gyorko could steal time against lefties, but Wong's premier glove work should give him plenty of rope, even netting him continued playing time against lefties. Wong's 3.3 percent barrel rate and 26.4 percent hard hit rate both rank in the 300 range across the league, so it's tough to see any sort of major leap coming, making it most likely that Wong will stabilize at around his current .789 OPS rather than suddenly be a 20/20 guy who hits .270.

Travis Shaw, 2B/3B, MIL

Last week ownership percentage: 76%

This week ownership percentage: 66%

Shaw is searching for his third consecutive 30-plus homer season, but he's not off to a good start in that quest. He's batting just .172/.262/.310 with four homers, including a pitiful .245 OPS in 29 PA versus southpaws. He's close to a platoon guy right now, sitting against lefties more often than not after scuffling to a .599 OPS against them last year. Shaw is walking at a decent 9.2 percent clip but has seen his year-over-year K percentage jump from 18.4 to 30.8 percent. Even his power has fallen off the map, with his .138 ISO being 101 points lower than last year's mark. Shaw simply isn't seeing the ball well right now, as his 14.2 percent swinging strike rate and his 69.6 percent contact rate against strikes would be far and away career lows if they hold. The dual position eligibility is nice, and he's useful in deeper leagues, but in 12-team mixed leagues where you don't have a MI or CI slot, I can see dropping him.

Mallex Smith, OF, SEA

Last week ownership percentage: 80%

This week ownership percentage: 62%

We all drafted Smith for the 40 steals he put up last year, but although he was off to a nice start there with eight in 27 games, Smith was also hitting just .165/.255/.247 before the Mariners sent him to Triple-A to hit the reset button. Smith broke out last year, hitting .296/.367/.406 with those 40 steals and two homers. This year though, like a lot of guys, he's seen his K percentage spike – from 18 to 30 percent, hastening his early demotion. Smith did go 4-for-9 with three steals in two Triple-A games, so that's encouraging, and it's likely he'll return sometime in the next couple weeks. What will he be once he's back? Who knows, but he wouldn't be the first guy to improve after working through some stuff in Triple-A, so I'm optimistic. Smith will probably take at-bats from Jay Bruce (.183 BA) and perhaps Domingo Santana (.146 in his last 10 games) once he returns, and he could be a sneaky stash if you have the room and need the steals.

Eloy Jimenez, OF, CHW

Last week ownership percentage: 78%

This week ownership percentage: 70%

After roaring through the minors last year, signing a six-year contract and getting the most hype of any prospect not named Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Jimenez has been a disappointment. Batting just .241/.294/.380 with three home runs, Jimenez has managed just five total extra-base hits in addition to a 29.4 K percentage and low 5.9 BB percentage. Oddly, the right-handed hitting Jimenez is hitting just .125/.192/.167 in 26 PA versus southpaws, and in looking through the game logs, sure he's faced Blake Snell in a couple of those PA, but other lefties contributing to the low OPS include Roenis Elias, Wade LeBlanc and Daniel Norris. A career .311/.359/.519 hitter in the minors, Jimenez also had a middling 0.38 BB/K (Vlad Jr.'s was 1.1, so perhaps some early struggles shouldn't be that surprising). Jimenez is now on the IL with an ankle injury, but he should be back in the next week or so after a brief rehab assignment. Clearly the owners dropping Jimenez didn't have an IL slot available and, we have to assume, none are in keeper leagues. If I had to guess where he finishes at season's end, I'd say something like .280/.330/.480 with 23 homers and 80-plus RBI.

Kyle Freeland, SP, COL

Last week ownership percentage: 70%

This week ownership percentage: 61%

Just when we started thinking that certain Coors Field pitchers could be trusted, Freeland comes along. A year after going 17-7 with a 2.85 ERA, Freeland is now off to a 2-5, 5.90 start. With a 3.61 FIP last year, Freeland probably wasn't going to post another sub-3.00 ERA, but he's barely below six at this point. Freeland's main issue can be shown here:

It's interesting to see the walk and strikeout rates are similar to last year's numbers, but obviously the homers have been a huge issue, even on the road (1.6 HR/9 away from Coors). Freeland's ERA will correct itself going forward, but he's probably looking at an ERA in the upper 3s this year, if not a touch higher.

Jay Bruce, OF, SEA

Last week ownership percentage: 55%

This week ownership percentage: 45%

If you just look at his 11 home runs, the drop in ownership rate would be shocking, but not when the guy is hitting .183. If you're rostering guys like Bruce, Eddie Rosario and Joc Pederson, you better have high BA guys like Jeff McNeil and Michael Brantley to balance things out. I never end up with low-BA/high-power guys like Bruce and Joey Gallo, as it's just so tough to compete in batting average as a result. Bruce has seen starts at first base, DH and the outfield, an arrangement that should continue, though I think the more likely outcome is that Bruce is traded sometime in July. He'll also face the eventual return of Mallex Smith from Triple-A. Incredibly, Bruce has just four singles through May 5, as 15 of his 19 hits have gone for extra bases. Bruce also hit just .223 last year, so his days of even .250-plus could be over.

Jurickson Profar, INF, OAK

Last week ownership percentage: 71%

This week ownership percentage: 60%

Never again!

That's me talking to myself after getting sucked in by Profar again this offseason. It sure looked like his career was trending in the right direction after he hit .254/.335/.458 with 20 homers and 10 stolen bases last year, but through 31 games in 2019, he's sitting at just .181/.244/.276 with just six XBH, 2 HR and 3 SB. Profar has suddenly been useless against RHP, batting a paltry .133/.207/.193 against them while posting an .828 OPS against LHP. It's interesting to see this from a guy with an excellent 12.6 K percentage. Profar's five percent barrel rate and 30.4 percent hard hit rate are low compared to league average, but pretty close to what he put up last year. We have to think that a .192 BABIP isn't going to continue, so the average will go up, but the lack of power is concerning. At this rate, we will probably start seeing more Chad Pinder or perhaps Jorge Mateo, who is off to a strong start in Triple-A at .338/.380/.564 with eight steals.

A.J. Pollock, OF, LAD

Last week ownership percentage: 94%

This week ownership percentage: 73%

Pollock was hitting just .223/.287/.330 prior to the injury, but now having undergone elbow surgery and facing a murky timeline, many owners obviously opted to cut bait entirely. Pollock was a curious free agent signing in the first place, as although a RH OF bat was needed, he hit just .257/.316/.484 last year, and over the past five seasons, Pollock has averaged just 94 games played since 2013 and he's probably right on track for that this year. While Pollock is out, Alex Verdugo and Joc Pederson are seeing more at-bats, even against LHP. Once Pollock returns, it's tough to envision a guy with a $60 million contract being a part-time player, but it's possible. Pederson has 10 home runs and a .937 OPS, and Verdugo is batting .329/.360/.576, including a 1.028 OPS vs. LHP.

Joey Lucchesi, SP, SD

Last week ownership percentage: 67%

This week ownership percentage: 56%

Lucchesi seemed to possess top-30 starter potential after posting a 4.08 ERA and 10.0 K/9 last year, leading to his starting the second game of this season. Lucchesi though has put up a 5.00 ERA in seven starts with a 9.0 K/9 and 3.0 BB/9. He got off to a nice start this year but has a 7.01 ERA in his last five starts, including a 1.64 WHIP. The left usually sits in the low-90s with his fastball, and those types of guys are prone to getting shelled on occasion, and that's what has happened so far with Lucchesi. The Padres aren't rushing MacKenzie Gore to the big leagues anytime soon, so Lucchesi should get plenty of rope but he'll need to start producing soon. Logan Allen could very well be next in line, as in his last three AAA starts, Allen has a 1.63 ERA and 13:0 K:BB in 13.2 innings.