This article is part of our FanDuel MLB series.
11 games are featured in Saturday evening's FanDuel main slate. Only three arms are priced in five-figures, with four more sitting at the 9k tier. That's only seven of the 22 arms, so we seem to have offenses to target while paying up for one of the few top pitchers. As of Friday evening, Kansas City and Pittsburgh are without listed starters, while the Dodgers have Gavin Stone included, but he's seemingly unconfirmed. Keep an eye on the Mets, too. FanDuel has Carlos Carrasco listed where as most sites have David Peterson. Both we can confidently target bats against, though those targets could change depending on who's actually throwing.
Pitching
Blake Snell, SD vs. SF ($10,600): This looks like an easy pay-up for me. Snell has at least 30 FanDuel points (FDP) in seven straight and in 17 of his last 18! The Giants rank 24th off lefties with a .300 wOBA, 91 wRC+ and high 25.2 percent K rate. And Snell has dominated this lineup. He fanned 11 in six shutout innings earlier this season, and has allowed a .184 BA and .516 OPS to the Giants overall, fanning 41 of the 114 batters he's faced, a massive 36.0 percent rate.
Mike Clevinger, CWS vs. DET ($8,900): Clevinger has allowed one run or none in three of his last four starts, and five of his last seven. Strikeouts have been sporadic, peaking at 10 and bottoming out at two in that seven-game stretch, but there's potential, which is aided by Detroit's 24.9 percent K rate. The Tigers offer just a .294 wOBA off righties, ranking 27th, coming with a well below average 85 wRC+. Clevinger has a .229 BAA against this lineup with a .684 OPS, and earned 33 FDP against them earlier in the year, a number that would look better had he gotten run support.
Luis Severino, NYY at HOU ($7,500): This is only going to go one of two ways: Severino either dominates or gets shelled. He's not going to offer any sort of stable floor. Over his last two starts, Severino has hurled 13.2 shutout innings, allowing six hits while fanning 10. Prior to that, he'd allowed 21 runs in 13.1 innings. Houston has just a 20.9 percent K rate off righties but is just middle of the pack with a .319 wOBA and 102 wRC+. There's ample history here, and Severino has limited the Astros lineup to a .254 BA and .763 OPS, earning a 22.8 percent K rate.
Top Targets
The ball has been flying out of Dodger Stadium the last two nights. And with pitch to contact Bryce Elder going to Atlanta and Gavin Stone/bullpen for Los Angeles, taking the stars here makes sense. Ronald Acuna ($4,900) is still too expensive, but he's homered in consecutive games, is five for six in the series as I'm watching/penning this column and looks locked in on making a statement. Marcell Ozuna ($3,700) I'd never consider paying this price for, but he's homered eight times in his last 11 games. Stone is allowing a .525 wOBA to righties in 52 plate appearances. Mookie Betts ($4,500) is the obvious play on the other side. He's 2-for-3 off Elder with a homer, and has a team-best .416 wOBA, 167 wRC+ and .261 ISO off righties.
The ambiguity on who the Mets are starting likely doesn't matter when it comes to Julio Rodriguez ($4,300). He has 11 hits and three homers over his last five games.
Bargain Bats
Ty Blach's stats aren't as bad as his low price point suggests, but we can't ignore the Blue Jays lineup in Coors Field. Instead of paying up, we can target secondary options like Brandon Belt ($3,300) and/or Whit Merrifield ($3,300). Belt has five homers in his last seven games, offering upside, while Merrifield has hit safely in six of eight.
Kyle Harrison was elite in his last outing, but did allow two runs and five hits in 3.1 frames in his debut. He's got enough to not target the Padres' top bats despite plus splits off lefties, which leaves us with Ha-Seong Kim ($3,100). He's hit safely in five straight after a three-game funk, and boasts a .417 wOBA, 171 wRC+ and .243 ISO off lefties. He's great by himself, but also offers the potential to feed off of the Padres' mashers behind him.
Drew Rom has allowed eight runs and 13 hits across nine innings since being called up. Pittsburgh doesn't have highly targetable splits on lefties, but Ke'Bryan Hayes ($3,300) sits with a reasonable .356 wOBA, .220 ISO and 122 wRC+ off lefties, best amongst their regulars. He also has 14 knock in his last nine games.
Stacks to Consider
Rangers vs. Dallas Keuchel: Corey Seager ($4,500), Mitch Garver ($3,000), Ezequiel Duran ($2,700)
The Rangers have six regulars with a wOBA of .378 or greater off lefties, so don't feel obligated to use Seager here. You can (likely) successfully pay on the mound, take top bats mentioned above, and still find success within this lineup. But Seager does have an elite .404 wOBA, 159 wRC+ and .254 ISO off lefties, making him a clear target. Garver sits at .416/167/.120 and Duran .391/150/.269. Simply, there's nothing to suggest Keuchel can remain an effective arm. His 3.50 ERA comes with a 5.14 xFIP, and he allowed six runs in his only road start, spanning 1.2 innings.
Red Sox vs. TBD (Alec Marsh): Rafael Devers ($3,700), Justin Turner ($3,500, Adam Duvall ($3,200)
The Royals haven't confirmed a starter, but indications are Marsh will get the initial opportunity. He's allowing a .422 wOBA and 1.010 OPS to righties. I unsuccessfully suggested stacking BoSox bats Friday, but am willing to go back to the well and expect a better effort as they keep their faint playoff hopes alive. The splits favor Turner and Duvall, while Devers gives us a potential anchor. I'm not married to this, and feel the slate sets up better for mini, two-man stacks. But this lineup has scored plenty of late and can return value.
