This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
MLB Picks Today: Free Expert MLB Bets for Tuesday, August 2nd
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Season Record:127-124-2 +17.05
Toronto Blue Jays at Tampa Bay Rays
Whenever I see the Rays at home, I always look at the total and see if under is viable. We have Kevin Gausman vs. Drew Rasmussen which is a matchup I like for the under. We also have a weakened Rays lineup.
But we also have a strong trend on the UNDER in Tampa Bay with 8 out of the last 10 hitting on that side of the ledger. The Jays have had a very hard time scoring in Tampa, averaging just 2.3 runs per game in the last 10. The Rays have averaged 3.7 runs in the last 10 at home vs. the Jays.
The Yankees have all but stitched up the AL East (-5000), but RotoWire's AL Championship odds and MLB playoffs odds pages give the latest prices on how to bet the Rays and the Jays.
MLB Best Bets for Blue Jays at Rays
- Blue Jays/Rays UNDER 7 runs for 1 RW buck (DraftKings +100)
Arizona Diamondbacks at Cleveland Guardians
One of the tools I use when analyzing baseball games is the RotoWire games archive. You can literally search for anything you need to get historical trends. I look at starting pitcher splits to see if there are any significant trends.
For this game, we have a strong trend on Triston McKenzie at home with 10 out of his last 13 home starts going UNDER the total. The next thing I look at is whether the game went under because of total runs scored or because of the opponent. In this case, Cleveland has averaged 2.9 runs per game while their opponents have averaged 3.2 runs per game but one game was 11 runs, so its closer to 2.0-2.5. On the other side, we have Zac Gallen who is 3-6-1 to the UNDER in his last 10 road starts. Gallen is also one of the best F5 pitchers with a 10-3-6 record (+$661, 77%).
Add in that both offenses are middle of the road at best and we have a game that points to an UNDER.
MLB Best Bets for Diamondbacks at Guardians
- Dbacks/Guardians UNDER 7.5 runs for 1.05 RW buck (FanDuel -105)
Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves
The Braves are a strong -220 home favorite against the Phillies, but the run line is only -115 which is where I will take the value, especially on a team that has no trouble scoring runs going against Mark Appel / Nick Nelson. The Braves are 22-7 in their last 30 home games with 5.0-3.1 runs per game (1.9 differential). Lay the -1.5 and over on the Braves which I have done for the last two months.
MLB Best Bets for Phillies at Braves
- Braves -1.5 runs for 1.15 RW buck (FanDuel -115)
- Braves OVER 5 runs for 1 RW buck (FanDuel +110)
MLB Best Bets Today Recap
- Blue Jays/Rays UNDER 7 runs for 1 RW buck (DraftKings +100)
- Dbacks/Guardians UNDER 7.5 runs for 1.05 RW buck (FanDuel -105)
- Braves -1.5 runs for 1.15 RW buck (FanDuel -115)
- Braves OVER 5 runs for 1 RW buck (FanDuel +110)
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