Farm Futures: Way Too Early 2019 Top 10

A reader asked me on Twitter over the weekend what a preliminary top 10 prospects for 2019 might look like, and in my rush to answer him, I listed only nine players. Additionally, after further evaluation, I ended up wanting to change some of those answers. So that's exactly what I set out to do. This is my on the record, way-too-early top 10 prospects for 2019:

1. Eloy Jimenez, OF, White Sox

The pectoral injury that delayed the start of Jimenez's season serves as something of a tie breaker, as this is close to a 50/50 call. That delayed start provides a little cover for the White Sox if they want to play service time games with their top prospect. There will undoubtedly be a baseball reason for promoting Jimenez sometime this summer, but that could be the difference between the White Sox picking second or third in the 2019 draft or picking fifth or sixth. There will be justifications on both side of the coin, and if Jimenez consistently tears the cover off the ball over the next two months, this could play out differently, but for now I'm predicting he enters 2019 as the top fantasy prospect in the game.

2. Fernando Tatis Jr., SS, Padres

This call has been made much easier by Tatito's start to the season at Double-A (15 wRC+, 24:1 K:BB in 73 plate appearances). I actually believe the Padres would have been fine losing out on some team control by bringing him up in the second half, but he would have had to be forcing the issue, and he's got a long way to go for that to be the case. He'll have to make some adjustments after this aggressive promotion past High-A, but I think he's up for the challenge, and when the season is over it will be laughable that his owners were panicking in April.

3. Juan Soto, OF, Nationals

Calls for Soto to be in the top 10 already are valid, specifically if you're lower than I am on Forrest Whitley and Scott Kingery, but I'm not quite there yet on Soto. That said, there's no doubt he'll be in the mix for a spot in the top five next offseason, and he may even occupy the top spot. He hit .373/.486/.814 with five home runs, two steals and more walks (14) than strikeouts (13) in 16 games at Low-A before getting promoted to High-A. While he won't be a zero on the bases, I don't expect him to steal more than 10 or 12 bases in any season in the big leagues.

4. Royce Lewis, SS, Twins

Lewis seems to still be underrated in certain circles, but he's definitely a viable candidate to enter 2019 as the top fantasy prospect in the game. He has everything we crave -- a chance to hit .300 for his career, steal 30-plus bases annually, hit high in the order and bang out 20-plus homers in his peak seasons. He is off to an excellent start at Low-A and should be at High-A by late May.

5. Taylor Trammell, OF, Reds

Trammell is hitting for more power this year than he did in his full-season debut (.230 ISO vs. .169 ISO in 2017), which aligns with most scouting reports that suggest he should grow into 20-homer pop, perhaps even cranking out 25 annually thanks to his hitter-friendly home park in Cincinnati. That power will all be gravy, as Trammell has proven he will be an OBP force, which will allow him to lead off and swipe 30-to-40 steals in his prime seasons. He will finish the season at High-A or Double-A, which will lead to me agonizing next offseason about whether Trammell will debut in 2019 or 2020.

6. Brendan Rodgers, SS/2B/3B, Rockies

Everyone knows I'm the low man on Rodgers, but even I won't be able to keep him out of my top 10 when he's knocking on the door of a big-league promotion in early 2019. He should be able to hit for a high average in his home games, while hitting 25-plus homers annually. It's not a large enough sample size to say he's truly improved in this area, but so far he has a higher OPS (.872) against righties than lefties (.800), which will be something to monitor as the season goes on. He's still not walking (4.4 percent walk rate), but that's not as concerning to me as his shortcomings against same-handed pitching in past seasons.

7. Jorge Mateo, SS/2B/OF, A's

BUY LOW ALERT!

Mateo is hitting a woeful .182/.225/.212 with a 31 percent strikeout rate in his first taste of Triple-A pitching. He would have had a hard time getting a pre-September call-up under the best of circumstances, given Oakland's middle-infield depth, but this slow start all but assures that Mateo will maintain his rookie eligibility this offseason. He will be a popular stash in 2019 redraft leagues, as he could steal 30-to-40 bases as a rookie even if he struggles at the plate. If he can make the necessary adjustments against Triple-A pitching this season and finish the year on a high note, he could enter 2019 as a top five fantasy prospect.

8. Luis Robert, OF, White Sox

I'm taking more of a wait-and-see approach with Robert than many of my fellow prospect rankers, just because the track record of toolsy Cuban imports living up to their scouting reports is a mixed bag, at best. That said, if Robert's hit tool is even merely average (50-grade), his speed and raw power will lead to some gaudy numbers once he's healthy at High-A. His range of outcomes for next season is anywhere from the top fantasy prospect in the game to outside of the top 25 overall, depending on how much he hits this year.

9. Jesus Luzardo, LHP, A's

Well, the cat's out of the bag. I'm anticipating Luzardo entering 2019 as the game's top pitching prospect, joining the elite company of Noah Syndergaard, Shohei Ohtani and Forrest Whitley -- pitching prospects who have entered a season ranked in my top 10. He was promoted to Double-A already this week, and is certainly on a fast track. That said, given how closely I anticipate the A's to monitor Luzardo's workload this year, I don't think he will be allowed to pitch deep enough into the season to earn a call-up in time to exhaust his prospect status.

10. Yordan Alvarez, OF/1B, Astros

This was a close call at No. 10, with Jesus Sanchez, Leody Taveras and Estevan Florial also garnering consideration. However, Alvarez figures to enter 2019 on the verge of a promotion to the big leagues as a 21-year-old capable of playing first base or left field in one of the best offenses in recent memory. Alvarez is one of the best pure hitters in the minor leagues, sporting an impressive 13:11 K:BB as one of the youngest hitters in the Texas League while also showcasing an incredibly advanced all-fields approach (36.2 percent pull rate, 38.3 percent opposite field rate). He has at least plus raw power and is an average runner, so he could be a five-category force in his early big-league seasons.

NOTABLE OMISSIONS

Vladimir Guerrero Jr., 3B, Blue Jays: This situation might be unprecedented in recent prospect history. We have a generational talent who might already be big-league ready at Double-A in an organization currently competing for a wild-card berth. That prospect plays the same position as the star of the team who is on the final year of his contract. And that team is owned by Rogers Media, which broadcasts the games. If we assume that Guerrero stays healthy and avoids a funk at the plate, which at this point seems like a fairly safe assumption, then he will clearly look like an upgrade at DH if the team is competing in July/August. If the team is not competing in July, Josh Donaldson will likely be traded, and then the business ramifications of the TV ratings that would result from calling up Guerrero come into play, and could win the day. He is worth stashing now in AL-only leagues and deep mixed leagues.

Victor Robles, OF, Nationals: Robles needs 117 at-bats to exhaust his prospect status, and is set to be out "months" with a hyperextended elbow. If he is able to return to action at Triple-A in July, which is my guess, then I think he'll round into form in time to get promoted with enough time to reach 130 MLB at-bats. This was a tough call, and there's at least a 30 or 40 percent chance he'll still qualify for the list next year.

Nick Senzel, 2B/3B, Reds: There is definitely a case for cutting Senzel loose in shallower redraft leagues, as he appears to have missed his window to come up and fill in for the injured Eugenio Suarez, and will now be held down at least until after the Super 2 deadline has passed in early June. It's possible he doesn't come up at all this year, but I think there's at least a 50 percent chance he comes up in time to exhaust his prospect eligibility. Another tough omission.

Bo Bichette, 2B/SS, Blue Jays: If Guerrero is 60/40 to get the call, then Bichette is probably closer to 50/50, as he's not quite the generational talent Guerrero is, and could therefore hit a performance skid that weakens the case for him being a clear upgrade in the scenario where the Blue Jays are competing this summer. I think the most likely scenario is that they continue to get promoted at the same pace, and debut on the same day on or around Aug. 1.

Forrest Whitley, RHP, Astros: He will be done serving his 50-game suspension May 29, and I think he forces his way to the majors in July or August, resulting in another close call as to whether he exhausts his prospect status. If the Astros' rotation experiences perfect health around that window, or if Whitley is slow to get cooking this spring/summer, he could very well be in the top 10 next offseason.

Kyle Tucker, OF, Astros: The Astros' top position player prospect is not forcing the issue right now, but I think he will in June or July, in time to come up and eclipse the 130 at-bat threshold. There are going to be a lot of factors at play here, and it's certainly possible he remains prospect eligible next offseason.

Michael Kopech, RHP, White Sox: Kopech has been pretty dominant thus far at Triple-A, and the White Sox have plenty of rotation spots up for grabs, so I think he's up before the All-Star break, in time to exhaust his prospect eligibility.

Austin Riley, 3B, Braves: This is another close call, complicated further by the Braves' desire to give Jose Bautista's corpse everyday playing time at third base in the near future. Riley should receive a promotion to Triple-A in the coming days, and assuming Bautista struggles, Riley could earn a promotion this summer.

Willy Adames, SS, Rays: He is heating up at Triple-A and should be promoted after the Super 2 deadline has passed in early June.

Luis Urias, 2B/SS, Padres: The Padres made it clear in spring training that Urias won't be long for Triple-A. He already has two home runs through 16 games after hitting three long balls in 118 games at Double-A last year. Look for Urias to receive a promotion to the majors in June or July.

Minor league add/drops in CBS Expert Dynasty Leagues:

RDI

Added

Enyel De Los Santos, RHP, Phillies ($15)
Isiah Kiner-Falefa, 2B, Rangers ($6)
David Bote, 3B, Cubs ($3)
Nick Solak, 2B, Rays ($2) (my buy)
Francisco Morales, RHP, Phillies ($0)
Matt Sauer, RHP, Yankees ($0)

Dropped

Julio Rodriguez, OF, Mariners
Logan Warmoth, SS, Blue Jays
Grant Holmes, RHP, A's
Amir Garrett, LHP, Reds
Lucas Sims, RHP, Braves

TDGX

Added

Sean Murphy, C, A's ($8) (my buy)
Oscar Mercado, OF, Cardinals ($8) (my buy)
Enyel De Los Santos, RHP, Phillies ($7)
Eric Lauer, LHP, Padres ($4)
Rylan Bannon, 3B, Dodgers ($3)
Alex Blandino, 2B, Reds ($2)
Stuart Fairchild, OF, Reds ($1)
Domingo German, RHP, Yankees ($0) (my buy)
Conner Capel, OF, Indians ($0)
Tyler Nevin, 1B/3B, Rockies ($0)

Dropped

James Nelson, 3B, Marlins (my drop)
Anthony Santander, OF, Orioles (my drop)
Lolo Sanchez, OF, Pirates
Greg Deichmann, OF, A's
Tyler Wade, 2B, Yankees
Miles Gordon, OF, Reds (my drop)
Jasrado Chisholm, SS, Diamondbacks
Renato Nunez, OF, Rangers
Tanner Scott, LHP, Orioles
Charcer Burks, OF, Cubs