This article is part of our DraftKings MLB series.
It's the final Saturday of September, a clear sign the playoffs are just around the corner. A lot has been decided already, but all the games still count and offer DFS opportunities. The main slate of DFS contests on DraftKings consist of the eight matchups starting at 7:05 p.m. EDT or later. Now, on to the recommendations!
Pitching
Framber Valdez, HOU at BAL ($10,200): Valdez has compiled a 2.57 ERA in 2022. He's also produced a 2.05 on the road and a 2.60 away since 2020, so it's not just a one-season thing. The Orioles are 22nd in runs scored, so this matchup bodes well for Valdez.
Joe Ryan, MIN vs. LAA ($8,000): Ryan is coming off two starts where he's gone at least seven innings and allowed zero runs, which has lowered his ERA to 3.61. That isn't incredible, but he's managed a 2.85 home mark in 2022. The Angels rank 25th in offense and list a .294 team OBP, leaving Ryan to worry about a couple of hitters and effectively no one else from that lineup.
Davis Martin, CWS vs. DET ($6,000): My Martin recommendation is about salary and matchup. He's posted a 3.78 ERA during his rookie campaign, but the Tigers sit last in runs scored and team OPS. If Martin goes five innings, there's a decent chance he'll pick up a win and that alone could be enough for him to pay off for your lineups.
Top Targets
How are these for gaudy numbers? Yordan Alvarez ($6,100) has slashed .301/.405/.617 with 37 home runs and a 1.179 OPS the last three weeks. Spenser Watkins was called up by the Orioles to fill a rotation spot and comes in with a career 5.73 ERA.
Eloy Jimenez ($5,500) has recently given Alvarez a run for his money with an 1.037 OPS over the same timeframe along with a .937 at home this season. Drew Hutchison has struggled a 6.12 ERA from his last five starts where he's also allowed seven homers.
Bargain Bats
Amed Rosario ($4,400) has hit .281 with 11 home runs, 17 stolen bases, and seven triples. Glenn Otto enters with a 5.22 FIP and has let fellow righties produce a .259 average against.
Cal Raleigh ($4,200) is admittedly all-or-nothing at the plate, but for a catcher that's just fine with me. He's barely over the Mendoza line, but he's slugged .473 with 24 homers and a .928 road OPS. Over his career, Kris Bubic, has posted a 4.99 FIP while giving up 1.44 home runs per nine innings. The switch-hitting Raleigh also has options as well as righties have gone .290 against Bubic while lefties have registered a staggering .373.
Stacks to Consider
Twins vs. Angels (Reid Detmers): Carlos Correa ($5,300), Jose Miranda ($3,800), Gio Urshela ($3,100)
Detmers has a 3.99 FIP in 2022, which is better than his 6.36 last year but not good by any stretch of the imagination. His improvement has also been decidedly better at home having posted a 4.13 road ERA. Since Detmers is a southpaw, I'm stacking three right-handed Twins.
Correa is well-suited for this matchup with a .942 OPS versus lefties and a .901 at home. The rookie Miranda has hit .263 with 15 home runs and a .521 OPS against southpaws. Urshela is more solid than remarkable, but you don't get to fill an entire DFS lineup with superstars. He's recorded a .767 OPS against lefties and a .778 at home, not to mention an .838 the last two weeks.
Padres at Rockies (Chad Kuhl): Manny Machado ($5,500), Ha-Seong Kim ($4,300), Josh Bell ($4,000)
Coors Field can be good for what ails you. You know what also helps? Facing a pitcher like Kuhl. His move to Denver has gone about as well as you would expect for a pitcher who came into the season with a career 4.44 ERA. Across his last 11 starts, Kuhl has slumped to an 8.53 ERA and has allowed 3.0 home runs per nine innings. The Padres really should take advantage of this opportunity. If not, it would be a surprise and a disappointment.
Machado has slashed .296/.367/.531 with 30 home runs. He consistently mashes his fellow righties better, and this year his OPS against them is .932. Kuhl may be a righty, but same-handed bats have gone .301 against and have therefore opted for Kim. I also like the fact he's on the road since he's produced .751 OPS in away games this season. The switch-hitting Bell has scuffled with the Padres, but maybe this opportunity is what he needs as he comes in with a career .813 OPS and three 20-homer campaigns.
Rangers vs. Guardians (Cal Quantrill): Corey Seager ($5,200), Adolis Garcia ($4,900), Nathaniel Lowe ($4,400)
This is Quantrill's first full season as an MLB starter. He's produced a 4.21 FIP while fanning a paltry 6.17 batters per nine innings. The righty has also been worse on the road with a 3.71 ERA, so I've concluded with a Rangers stack at home.
Seager's slash line is down from his career numbers, but his 32 homers represents a personal best. He's also managed a .918 OPS at home. With a stolen base Friday, Garcia has himself a 25-25 season. Facing a righty tends to be better for a base stealer, and he's also hit .258 and slugged .480 at home. Lowe has slashed .306/.361/.498 with 25 home runs and a .914 OPS the last 21 days.
