Collette Calls: 2024 AL Central Bold Predictions

The ADP references below are from 23 Draft Champions drafts which took place from 12/16/23-1/16/24

Chicago White Sox

Andrew Vaughn finishes outside the top 300 (ADP 236; min 194, max 276)

Chicago should be grateful Oakland is in the league, because this team would be in contention for the worst record in the league otherwise. Good production can come from players on bad teams, but I still do not like Vaughn in 2024 for a few reasons. 

First, the position is rather deep this year. These are some of the names going at least two rounds later than Vaughn over the past month: Justin Turner, Anthony Rizzo, Jose Abreu, Josh Bell, Ty France and Kyle Manzardo. Simply put, if you are looking for production from first base, you do not need to part with the draft capital it currently costs you to roster Vaughn.

Secondly, team context is a huge issue here. Vaughn is projected to hit second in this lineup, and while that provides him more plate appearances to produce more volume, RBIs will be a problem as this roster stands now. The table below shows the on-base percentages of the four hitters projected to be in front of him from 2023 as well as their projected OBPs:

Vaughn's best hope for ducks on the pond is Benintendi, who has OBPs below .330 in two of the past three seasons. Simply put, the traffic on the bases is going to be like the Dan Ryan at 3 a.m. Chicago was a bottom-third team last season in terms of driving in baserunners, and they've done nothing to improve last year's lineup. Vaughn drove in 17.1 percent of his baserunners (league average is 14.5 percent) as he plated 59 baserunners last year in addition to driving himself in 21 times. The counterargument to this is that if Vaughn gets 600+ plate appearances again and hits 20+ homers again, he should fall into 75+ RBI again, but tell that to the likes of Shin-Soo Choo, Max Kepler, Trey Mancini, Jayson Werth and Bryan Reynolds and more who have done that very same thing in recent seasons. Even Juan Soto had 62 RBI in 2022 despite 664 plate appearances and 27 homers while spending most of his time on a terrible Nationals club. 

You have better options at this position, and Vaughn's current market price has all the indications of a bad investment. 

Michael Kopech is a top-150 pitcher (ADP 511; min 429, max 625)

The gif below shows Kopech's BaseballSavant profile over the years and I want to include it as a reminder of who he was just two seasons ago. 

Kopech has struggled with injuries since that 2021 season, hitting the injured list twice with shoulder issues as well as twice with troubles in both knees. The 2022 knee injury was to repair a meniscus tear in his landing leg, but this most recent surgery was to remove a cyst from his push-off leg. The recovery from that procedure is six to eight weeks, which means Kopech should be 100 percent for this spring and will begin the year on two healthy legs for the first time since 2021.

Kopech is also being reunited with Brian Bannister, someone who was a huge help to him as a prospect in the Boston organization. Bannister is now the senior advisor to pitching for the White Sox, and he and Kopech have a mutual admiration for one another according to a September article from White Sox beat writer Scott Merkin:

Bannister believes Kopech can be elevated to top starting form. And Kopech looks forward to Bannister's assistance, supplementing the work he's done to date.

"I've liked Banny since I met him," Kopech said. "He's been nothing but good to me as a professional. He can offer a lot with the experience he's had being with the Sox and Giants. I'm excited to have him on, excited to get to know him more on a personal level. [And] see where that can take my career and, hopefully, take this team."

"My sweet spot has always been helping pitchers who are either coming off a down year or have lost their identity a little bit, and really getting in there and building trust with them and helping them identify what makes them a productive Major League pitcher and just walking alongside them in that process," said Bannister, who already has had conversations with Kopech. "I'm a big believer in him."

An added benefit to this situation is the improvement in the catching situation. Opposing runners were 32 of 39 stealing bases off Kopech, and all four catchers he threw to last year are no longer in the picture. Grandal was the catcher Kopech worked with most often, and baserunners were 18 of 23 against that battery. Grandal is tied with Keibert Ruiz for the worst stolen base prevention over the past two seasons. Maldonado has been a top five catcher in preventing stolen bases over the past two seasons, and he's likely going to be the catcher Kopech will throw to most often, reducing his exposure to steals. This benefit should show up in his ERA and help him get back to where things were when times were good. 

Kopech is currently the 211th pitcher off the board over the past month, which means all this upside costs you nothing more than a reserve pick in standard drafts and a 34th-round pick in a 50-round draft and hold. As Doo Doo Brown preached to us in the 80s, act like a tennis shoe and just do it. Worst-case scenario is you cut bait early, but best-case scenario is the pitching firm of Katz & Bannister pull out of Kopech what was once there and the 27-year old looks great and becomes a trade piece, as Kopech is a free agent in two seasons. The best time to trade him would be this year, as a rehabilitated Kopech would command more on the open market with a season-plus of team control than he would after this season is over.

Cleveland Guardians

Bo Naylor is not a top-200 player (ADP 159; min 136, max 180)

This is one of those situations where team context comes into play for me. Naylor made a terrific impression in his rookie season, showing power as well as well as a solid grasp of the strike zone, much like his older brother. Naylor was also above average behind the plate both in pitch framing and his pop time, and should get most of the playing time, with Austin Hedges assuming the getaway games as well as most of the day games that follow night games. All that said, I am zigging while the market is zagging, as Naylor is currently the 13th catcher off the board, going nearly a round in front of Jonah Heim, who was much more impressive last season. 

Naylor will be 24 years old and entering his second season with the demands of handling a pitching staff, and those responsibilities can wear on a young catcher in a full season. Adley Rutschman spoiled us in 2022, coming up and doing well in his age 24 season, but we have to go back to 2012 to Wilin Rosario in Colorado to find the last catcher age 24 or younger with an OPS over .800 (min 400 PA) in a season. If you prefer removing the Coors factor from that, then we go to Alex Avila in 2011 with an .895 OPS, which was the best season of his 13-year career. 

Finally, I don't see a path for Naylor to hit any higher than sixth in the Cleveland lineup as they already have three lefties and the switch-hitting Jose Ramirez in the top four spots, which is why Ramon Laureano, acquired off waivers last season, is in the fifth spot as a righty. Give me Danny Jansen in a walk year, Elias Diaz with his Coors schedule, a full season of Ryan Jeffers or the upside of someone like Jake Rogers or Freddy Fermin at their current prices over what Naylor is going for over the past month. 

Joey Cantillo is a top-200 pitcher (current ADP 626; min 529, max 744)

Where does Cleveland keep finding these guys? Cantillo is ranked seventh in the Cleveland organization and 153rd overall on James Anderson's latest Top 400 rankings (released earlier this week), so I feel a bit validated in putting this bold prediction out there even before I saw his rankings. 

Cantillo has pitched to a 2.94 ERA and 1.18 WHIP in 361.2 innings over the past six seasons, first with the Padres organization and then with Cleveland after being a part of the Mike Clevinger deal. Walks have been a problem for the lefty, as he has walked 10.9 percent of the batters he's faced in that time but has offset that damage with a 31.6 percent strikeout rate, giving him nearly the 20 percent K-BB% we cherish with promising hurlers. He has allowed 6.5 hits per nine innings thanks to the stuff he shows in the embedded highlight video below. I mean, look at that changeup! The broadcaster refers to it as a breaking ball a few times, but most of those are the cambio: 

2023 was Cantillo's healthiest season since he joined the Cleveland organization, as he compiled 119.1 innings between Double-A and Triple A, striking out 146 batters. Cantillo missed time the previous two seasons with core and shoulder issues, but neither popped up this past season. Shane Bieber is in his final year before free agency and Triston McKenzie isn't 100 percent out of the woods with his 2023 ailment if his end-of-season velocity readings are any indicator. Cantillo has his flaws, but AL-only fantasy managers and those in deeper mixed leagues could run a draft-and-follow play here that could pay off in the end.

Detroit Tigers

Jake Rogers is a top-15 catcher (current ADP 323; min 275, max 410)

Rogers is currently the 25th catcher off the board, going some 170 picks after Jonah Heim, who is somehow the 15th catcher off the board right now. Rogers isn't exactly a surprise coming off a season where he homered 21 times in 365 plate appearances, but the career 34.7 percent strikeout rate over 180 games is certainly tough to overlook for those considering buying in this season. 

Rogers missed 2022 after recovering from Tommy John surgery but still demonstrated better than average pop time and is an outstanding blocker and framer behind the plate, guaranteeing him as much catching time as his body can handle. His .232 Isolated Power since 2021 ranks third among all catchers with at least 400 plate appearances, trailing only Mike Zunino and Danny Jansen. Zunino is an interesting comparison to Rogers in that both have big power, but Rogers still makes more contact than Zunino did over the course of his career. 

Rogers is currently projected to hit in the ninth spot, but that power could push him up the lineup should the weaker underbelly of Mark Canha, Matt Vierling, Zach McKinstry and Javier Baez fail to generate enough offense behind the top half of the order. That 2021 season in which Zunino put up 33 homers and 60+ RBIs and runs is within the realm of possibility for Rogers with enough playing time and good fortune. There is enough red ink in the right spots of his percentile rankings from last season to be intrigued at his current market price:

Shelby Miller leads the Tigers in saves (current ADP 514; min 190, max 647)

Someone is already believing in this, with Miller being drafted inside the top 200 on one occasion. Miller signed with Detroit just before Christmas and someone took him with pick 190 a week later, but January drafts continue to have Miller going later in drafts. Miller missed a good chunk of 2023 with a neck issue but was still effective overall for the Dodgers. The Tigers seem open to using Miller in any capacity in their bullpen:

"He has the pure stuff to pitch at the very back of our bullpen," Tigers president of baseball operations Scott Harris said. "He has the versatility to pitch multiple innings if we need him to. He has the mentality to do whatever [manager] A.J. [Hinch] needs to help us win."

Miller has gone through recent changes to his repertoire as well. His primary pitch is his four-seam fastball, which had been extremely hittable before the Giants and Dodgers helped him recover its effectiveness. Opposing hitters are 10-for-86 when putting Miller's fastball into play over the past two seasons, with a 25.9 percent whiff rate on the pitch. Miller has tinkered with a secondary pitch since moving to the bullpen after missing the 2020 season but has shelved the cutter from 2021 in favor of a much more effective splitter he picked up last season. The league hit .136 off the splitter with a 30.7 percent whiff rate. Miller's slider, which was his primary pitch in 2022, is now his tertiary offering, and he uses all three pitches to righties and lefties.

The Detroit bullpen has options in 2024, with incumbent Alex Lange on a hot seat after walking 15.6 percent of the batters he faced last season and being yanked from several save opportunities due to command issues. The table below shows how each pitcher did based on selected indicators

My prediction for Miller leading in saves is based on a comment from the previously linked article, as Tigers GM Jeff Greenberg made a rather specific comment regarding Miller:

We think he has a full mix that allows him to use the entire strike zone," Harris said. "With the splitter, he brings a new wrinkle to our pen. His mix is very different than the other pieces we have in the bullpen and it gives (pitching coach Chris) Fetter and AJ more options when they're trying to match up in games and piece together a win."

Miller, like Lange, was tough to make contact against in the pitching zone, but unlike Lange, Miller is in the zone more than he's not. Foley is also in the zone quite frequently, but he doesn't have the same swing-and-miss that Miller brings to the table with his splitter. Miller isn't about to go all peak Jose Valverde on us and save 49 games as Valverde did for Detroit in 2011, but 20-plus saves is possible if these tea leaves are telling us what I think they're telling us. 

Kansas City Royals

MJ Melendez is a top-40 outfielder (current ADP 288; min 253, max 328)

Melendez is the 67th outfielder off the board, 114 spots behind Jarren Duran, who is the 40th outfielder in the ADP rankings over the past 30 days. I see the former catcher (who still qualifies there in leagues with 10-game eligibility rules) as a bargain given he's the projected everyday leadoff hitter for Kansas City in front of their thumpers. 

Melendez's catching days are behind him, as he caught his last game in 2023 at the end of April. He went on to hit 14 of his 16 homers while batting .247 after that point, much better than the .174/.267/.315 start he got off to while bouncing between outfield and catcher in April. Melendez finished the season ranked in the 90th percentile for average exit velocity and hard-hit percentage and was 75th percentile in barrels as well as walks in just his second season at the big-league level. His second-half slash line of .273/.352/.485 with an improved walk rate and strikeout rate was a significant step forward from his .206/.289/.333 line before the break and perhaps a tease at what's to come in 2024. 

Melendez enters 2024 primed for a third-year statistical breakout after two years of donning multiple gloves defensively and could earn the leadoff job with his plate discipline. His batting average has to be managed because it could be a pull on your roster if he gets over 600 plate appearances again, but he has the thump to get 25 or more homers and the speed to steal 10 or more bags and should set a career high in runs setting the table for the talent at the top of the lineup in Kansas City. It was almost like he spent the end of the season demonstrating he was capable of the more disciplined approach necessary for leadoff hitters: 

I will leave you with this final note on Melendez: I spent $16 in the November XFL keeper league auction to add him to my roster for at least the next two seasons. 

Cole Ragans is not a top-50 starting pitcher (ADP 106; min 84, max 127)

I'm guessing my editor will be choosing Ragans for the header graphic for this installment based on this prediction. (Editor's note: good idea.) This is not me simply being contrarian, because Ragans has the goods and I thoroughly enjoyed watching him make the changes he did with Kansas City once freed from the uncertainty of working in the Texas bullpen last season. He is currently the 32nd starting pitcher off the board, and that's only likely to go higher as we get into the heat of draft season. I simply cannot get on board with that price.

Ragans is far enough removed from the span of his career he would rather forget. He first tore his UCL in 2017 and then did it again during the rehab process from that first surgery. Those two injuries plus the pandemic led to Ragans missing game time from mid-2017 through the 2020 season. He came back to work 80 innings in 2021, threw 134 in 2022, and then worked 124 innings between the Texas and Kansas City organizations last season. Ragans currently costs you anywhere from a late fifth-round selection to an early eighth-round selection with his ADP range. Ironically, he is going one pick after Walker Buehler, who has an equal amount of upside and risk associated with him as he returns from his injury. Steamer has aggressively projected Ragans for 177 innings working as the SP1 in the Kansas City rotation this year. Our RotoWire projections are not as kind. 

The table below shows the 10 starting pitchers going before Ragans over the last month as well as the 10 going after him:

Note the number of pitchers we are projecting to throw 30+ innings more than Ragans with even better projected numbers. I can get better projected numbers from Bailey Ober or more volume from Merrill Kelly (both of whom pitch for better teams than the Royals) nearly 50 picks later than Ragans? Sign me up!

Ragans will be asked to do some heavy lifting for his club as well as for fantasy managers who are taking him as their SP2 or even SP1, an extremely risky play for someone who has only recently shown signs of putting it all together. He also ended 2022 walking 16 batters in his last 24 innings of work, perhaps giving us an indication that his body is not yet up to the workload a real staff ace and a fantasy front man is expected to carry. 

Minnesota Twins

Alex Kirilloff is a top-300 player (current ADP 347; min 306, max 410)

Kirilloff is projected to be the strong-side platoon partner with Jose Miranda at first base this season, but given how much Miranda has fallen off, it wouldn't surprise me to see Kirilloff take this job and run with it. Minnesota is pulling him from the outfield to project him from himself after watching him injure his right shoulder diving for a ball. The good news is the damage in the joint was not as bad as expected, so the recovery for his critical front shoulder for hitting should be smooth. Tougher shoulder surgeries initially limit a hitter's ability to get full extension on their swings and lead to power outages, but he seems to have avoided the worst. That's a nice change for Kirilloff, whose shoulder injury was just the latest in a string of issues which have impacted his time on the field, as he dealt with wrist injuries in 2021 and 2022. 

Kirilloff is projected to hit at the bottom of the Minnesota lineup, but that isn't a reflection of his lack of skill as much as it reflects the projected depth of their lineup. That said, he is but another Byron Buxton injury away from moving up in the lineup. 

Prior to his run of injuries, Kirilloff was one of our higher-ranked prospects as he came up through the organization, and the Stat Review portion of his player profile page has a desirable amount of green in all the right areas. He is the 33rd first baseman off the board and the 85th outfielder, which puts him in the reserve rounds of most mixed-league drafts. The talent upside alone is worth it, especially if playing first base can keep him fresh over the course of the season and allow him to tap into that upside which saw him given 60/80 grades on his hit tool, game power and raw power as a prospect. 

Louie Varland is a top-75 pitcher (current ADP 305; min 254, max 382)

This spot was Bailey Ober's last season, which worked out quite well. Varland is currently the 119th pitcher off the board just in front of Jameson Taillon and Luis Severino, with Edward Cabrera and Lance Lynn going just in front of him. 

Varland has a lively arm with a prevalence for his fastball types (four-seam, two-seam, cutter) that he threw 76 percent of the time in 2023. He has at least a 25 percent whiff rate on each pitch grouping, but his offspeed stuff brings up the rear of his offerings and is why the club is not certain what his role will be in 2024.

That happened with the expectation that Varland would return to starting in 2024 — but the Twins don't want to make a call on that just yet, both Baldelli and Falvey said. They're glad he now has experience doing both at the highest level, but it did affect their perspective to see Varland up to 100 mph with his fastball with a cutter that gave hitters fits out of the bullpen.

"I think he has the ability to be an elite reliever," Baldelli said. "I don't want to make any bold statements. I'll talk to him soon. What he showed out of the bullpen was special. It's hard to look away from that and not at least think about that going forward. I'll just say that."

Varland fared better against lefties last season despite the lack of a great offspeed pitch, holding them to a .209/.265/.429 slash line while righties went .275/.317/.526. He gave up 16 homers in 68 innings of work, with 11 of those coming against right-handers. Varland came up as a starter in mid-April and made 10 starts, with 14 of his 16 homers coming in those 56 innings of work. He was sent across town to Triple-A St. Paul where the organization eventually moved him into the bullpen and he came up firing bullets in September, striking out 17 batters in 12 innings with just one walk. He displayed a noticeable increase in velocity as well as a new sinker:

Uncertainty breeds opportunity as Varland could work in the rotation, but I am even more intrigued with him working as a middle-relief vulture to get wins much like Colin Poche, Mike Baumann, Kevin Ginkel and Matt Brash did last year. A late investment in Varland could pay off handsomely should his September 2023 efforts be a leading indicator of what he is capable of out of the pen.