This article is part of our Tennis Picks series.
The first round of the Australian Open wraps up Tuesday from the hard courts of Melbourne Park, with the action starting while it's still Monday night in the United States. A pair of favored American men could find it tough to notch their first career Australian Open main-draw wins, while a matchup between American women presents a nice value opportunity and a young Australian will look to thrill the crowd with an upset win.
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All men's singles matches at Grand Slams such as the Australian Open are best of five sets, while women's singles matches are best of three sets. A mix of players' previous hard court results, recent form and stylistic matchups can help pinpoint intriguing betting opportunities, both among favorites likely to cruise to victory and underdogs ready to pull off upsets. The aforementioned underdogs are highlighted in the Upset Alert section, the Lock It In section covers players who can safely be viewed as overwhelming favorites, while the Value Bets section recommends enticing options in matchups that are considered closer to toss-ups.
Australian Open Picks: Upset Alert
Olivia Gadecki (+240) vs. Veronika Kudermetova
Kudermetova notched a pair of wins in the tune-up in Hobart to snap a four-match losing streak, but the big-hitting Russian has struggled to find consistency and is coming off a 2024 campaign in which she went just 10-16 on hard courts, plummeting from No. 16 to start last year to a current ranking of No. 75. Gadecki's an up-and-coming 22-year-old Aussie whose best results have come on hard courts, including reaching the final of the WTA 500-level tournament in Guadalajara in September. Currently ranked just outside the top 100, Gadecki's poised to make a big move up the rankings in 2025 considering she didn't even make the main draw of the French Open or U.S. Open last year. Between Kudermetova's inconsistency and Gadecki's crowd support, this is a nice upset opportunity.
Yannick Hanfmann (+290) vs. Marcos Giron
Giron is 0-5 in his career at the Australian Open, and the American's first main draw win down under won't come easily against Hanfmann, who showed decent form to qualify into the main draws of both Brisbane and Adelaide leading up to this event. Neither veteran has any major weapons, though the 6-foot-4 Hanfmann gets more out of his serve than the 5-foot-11 Giron. Both have sub-.500 career hard-court records, and while Giron currently holds a 49-spot rankings edge at No. 46, most of his points were picked up in the United States, with his lone career title coming on grass in Newport last year.
Honorable Mention
Federico Coria (+450) vs. Tristan Boyer
Australian Open Odds: Lock It In
McCartney Kessler (-275) vs. Shuai Zhang
Kessler's playing the best tennis of her career heading into this event, as she has climbed to a new career high of No. 47 after winning the title in Hobart on Saturday. The 25-year-old American has a nice opportunity to keep rolling against the 35-year-old Zhang, who has dropped outside the top 200 thanks to a 24-match losing streak that she finally snapped in September. Zhang has won her first-round match in only three of her last 31 events and has only one win outside her home country of China since February of 2023.
Alexei Popyrin (-425) vs. Corentin Moutet
Popyrin has surged up to 24th in the ATP rankings thanks to an outstanding American hard-court swing in August and September, which included a Masters 1000 title at the Canadian Open and a victory over Novak Djokovic at the U.S. Open. Prior to beating Djokovic in New York, the big-serving Australian lost to the Serbian legend at both the Australian Open and Wimbledon, so there's a clear path for improvement at Grand Slams for Popyrin with more favorable draws. His edge in power should allow Popyrin to control play against the 69th-ranked Moutet, who has excellent hands but will need to work much harder to hold considering he gives away six inches in height to the 6-foot-5 crowd favorite.
Honorable Mention
Jasmine Paolini (-575) vs. Sijia Wei
Australian Open Predictions: Value Bets
Emma Navarro (-150) vs. Peyton Stearns
It's a shame one of these young, talented Americans will be done in the first round, but Navarro has the clear edge given her track record in big tournaments over the past year. Navarro has been on a steadily positive trajectory in majors, improving from a third-round showing at the 2024 Australian Open by subsequently reaching the French Open fourth round, Wimbledon quarterfinals and U.S. Open semifinals. She has climbed to No. 8 in the rankings, 38 spots ahead of fellow 23-year-old Stearns. While Stearns' forehand will be the biggest shot on the court, Navarro's superior consistency and variety, coupled with her wealth of big-match experience accrued over the past 12 months makes Navarro the clear favorite in this match. Navarro has also won all four of their meetings since the start of 2023, with Stearns' lone head-to-head win coming way back in 2019.
Alexander Bublik (+140) vs. Francisco Cerundolo
Bublik's game is built for faster courts like the ones at this tournament, while Cerundolo prefers slower courts, and Cerundolo's edge in the rankings is only six spots. Cerundolo will have to work much harder to hold than the big-serving Bublik, and while Cerundolo's likely to dominate longer rallies, Bublik's shotmaking should allow him to consistently get on the front foot and keep points short. Bublik can often lose focus and beat himself, but this matchup is otherwise a toss-up with a slight lean to Bublik given the conditions and Cerundolo's unimpressive 6-8 record at Grand Slams other than the French Open.
Honorable Mention
Matteo Arnaldi (+140) vs. Lorenzo Musetti
