Senegal vs Iraq Preview: Predicted Lineups, Team News & Tactical Analysis | 2026 World Cup Group I
This is a strange one. France and Norway have both gone through from Group I, leaving Senegal and Iraq, both on zero points, to scrap over third place in Toronto. With eight of the 12 third-placed teams advancing, the winner here keeps a faint knockout hope alive, while a draw or defeat ends it. For Senegal, with the squad they have, even needing this is a serious underachievement.
That is the real story here: how does a Senegal side with Sadio Mane, Kalidou Koulibaly, Nicolas Jackson and Ismaila Sarr need a final-day win just to cling to a third-place lifeline? They remain the far stronger team and should win this, but the campaign has been a major disappointment, and even a victory may not be enough without favors elsewhere.
This preview covers predicted lineups, injury news, head-to-head history, the tactical matchup and a score prediction for Friday's Group I finale in Toronto.
When & Where to Watch (USA)
Friday, June 26 at 3:00 p.m. ET / 12:00 p.m. PT
Venue: BMO Field, Toronto, Ontario
US Coverage (English):
- TV: FS1
- Streaming: Fubo, FOX Sports app
US Coverage (Spanish):
- TV: Telemundo / Universo
- Streaming: Peacock
Senegal vs Iraq Lineups & Injury News
Predicted Lineups & Starting XIs
The predicted starting XIs are listed below and update automatically in the widget above as confirmed lineups drop. Lineups via RotoWire.
Predicted lineups: Senegal are projected in a 4-2-3-1 under Pape Thiaw, with Nicolas Jackson up top and Sadio Mane, Lamine Camara and Ismaila Sarr in support. Iraq set up in a 4-2-3-1 under Graham Arnold, with Ali Al-Hamadi leading the line and Zidane Iqbal pulling the strings. Senegal list goalkeeper Edouard Mendy as questionable but he is projected to start, while Iraq have no one in the projected XI ruled out.
Senegal predicted starting XI (4-2-3-1): Edouard Mendy (GK); Krepin Diatta, Kalidou Koulibaly, Moussa Niakhate, El Hadji Malick Diouf (DEF); Idrissa Gueye, Pape Gueye (DM); Ismaila Sarr, Lamine Camara, Sadio Mane (AM); Nicolas Jackson (FW).
Iraq predicted starting XI (4-2-3-1): Ahmed Basil Al Fadhli (GK); Hussein Ali, Akam Hashem, Zaid Tahseen, Merchas Doski (DEF); Amir Al-Ammari, Zaid Ismael (DM); Ahmed Qasem, Zidane Iqbal, Ibrahim Bayesh (AM); Ali Al-Hamadi (FW).
Senegal Lineup Notes
Edouard Mendy is listed as questionable on the World Cup injury table but is projected to start in goal. Pape Thiaw is otherwise expected to field his big names, with Sadio Mane and Ismaila Sarr either side of Lamine Camara behind Nicolas Jackson, and the Gueye pair holding midfield. Check RotoWire's player news for the confirmed lineup.
The talent was never the issue for Senegal, the results were. Two costly defeats have left them on the brink, and they need a win, plus results elsewhere, to have any chance of sneaking through as a best third-placed team.
Iraq Lineup Notes
Iraq have no players in the projected XI ruled out, with Ali Al Mafraje and Mohanad Ali Kadhim listed as questionable on the World Cup injury table and neither projected to start. Graham Arnold leans on Zidane Iqbal's creativity and Ali Al-Hamadi up top. Check RotoWire's player news for the confirmed lineup.
Iraq have been outgunned in this group but competitive in patches, and a result against a wounded Senegal is not impossible, and a win would keep their own faint third-place hopes alive. Realistically, though, they are heavy underdogs against a side with far more individual quality.
Senegal vs Iraq Head-to-Head Record
The nations have almost no shared history and no competitive meetings of note, so this is effectively fresh ground. With both teams chasing a slim third-place lifeline, recent form and the gulf in squad quality matter far more than any record.
Tactical Analysis & Formations
Senegal will dominate the ball and look to get Mane and Sarr running at Iraq's full-backs, with Jackson stretching the line and Lamine Camara linking play. Even with nothing on the line, the individual quality should create chances, and the question is more about sharpness and motivation than ability.
Iraq will sit deep, stay compact and try to frustrate, hoping Zidane Iqbal can spark something on the break and Ali Al-Hamadi can convert a rare chance. Arnold's side has to defend well and take what comes, because they will not see much of the ball against a Senegal team determined to salvage some pride.
I lean Senegal. They are the stronger team by a distance and have something to play for, however faint, in chasing a third-place spot. Iraq could nick a goal, but Senegal should have enough quality to win this.
Senegal vs Iraq Odds
Senegal are heavy favorites despite their poor campaign, with Iraq a long underdog and the draw priced accordingly. The market leans firmly on a Senegal win, and with a third-place lifeline still in play, they have a reason to chase it.
| Sportsbook | Senegal | Draw | Iraq |
|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | -425 | +550 | +1000 |
| DraftKings | -450 | +600 | +1100 |
| FanDuel | -450 | +500 | +1200 |
| bet365 | -450 | +475 | +1200 |
| Kalshi | -404 | +527 | +1070 |
Odds via OddsJam (BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel, bet365, Kalshi) and likely to move. Shop the best lines at RotoWire's soccer betting odds page and claim bonuses using the best sportsbook promos.
Key Matchups
Sadio Mane vs Iraq's Right Side
Senegal's clearest route to goal is Sadio Mane drifting in off the left at Iraq's defense. His movement and finishing remain a level above what Iraq can handle, and if Senegal are to win comfortably, he is likely at the heart of it.
Zidane Iqbal vs Senegal's Midfield
Iraq's hopes of a moment run through Zidane Iqbal's ability to carry the ball and create. Against the experience of Idrissa Gueye and Pape Gueye he will have little time, but if Iraq are to spring a counter, it likely starts with him winning possession and driving forward.
Set-Piece Takers
For a full breakdown of corner, free kick and penalty takers for all 48 teams, see RotoWire's 2026 World Cup Set-Piece Takers guide.
Senegal
- Corners & free kicks: Lamine Camara, Krepin Diatta, El Hadji Malick Diouf
- Penalties: Sadio Mane, Nicolas Jackson, Ismaila Sarr
Iraq
- Corners & free kicks: Amir Al-Ammari, Zidane Iqbal
- Penalties: Amir Al-Ammari
Senegal vs Iraq Prediction
With third place still mathematically alive, Senegal have a reason to chase this, and they have far too much quality for Iraq. I expect them to control the game and win, with Iraq battling but lacking the firepower to trouble a Senegal side that needs the result to keep any hope going.
Score Prediction: Senegal 2-0 Iraq
Upcoming Fixtures
Group I concludes after this match. France and Norway have advanced; the winner of this game keeps a slim hope of reaching the knockouts as a best third-placed team.
For the full Group I tactical breakdown and odds, see RotoWire's 2026 World Cup group previews.
For more coverage, visit RotoWire's World Cup hub for predicted lineups, fantasy rankings, set pieces, betting picks, odds and daily recaps throughout the tournament.
