This article is part of our Soccer Picks series.
I'll be honest, I'm 3-13 in my last 16 bets in this article, but I'm 9-2 in my last 11 on Kits & Wagers. I went on a similar cold run on the podcast earlier in the season and I bounced back. The good news is I plan on bouncing back in this article.
Record: 28-35-1. Down $422 on $100 bets.
Looking for more more Premier League bets? Check out Kits & Wagers where Adam and Chris Owen bet on more matches with hopes of filling their wallet ahead of the holidays.
EPL Best Bets for Crystal Palace at Manchester City
Manchester City -4 corners against Palace -120
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I don't know how this game is played out differently than Manchester City keeping more than 70-percent possession and Crystal Palace holding their Roy Hodgson defensive fortress. Palace will get an opportunity or two with Michael Olise on the wing, but the absence of workhorse Jordan Ayew doesn't help in addition to the already injured regulars.
In last season's two meetings, Palace totaled six shots and .33 xG, while taking three corners compared to 12 for City. My only question is whether I think City can score multiple goals in the first half. If they do, there may not be many corners in the second half.
I think given the injuries in City's side, taking -4 corners for the game is the best route. They'll have five or more corners while Palace will be in the one or two range. I think it's more likely City finish with 10 corners than Palace reaching three, so I'm taking the full game bet.
EPL Best Bets for Fulham at Newcastle United
Newcastle to beat Fulham -115
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There's a cloud of doubt hovering over Newcastle, as players are being ran into the ground after they let go of a 1-0 lead to drop out of UEFA play Wednesday. I still can't overlook their home form. Dan Burn and Sean Longstaff are back in the squad and while no Kieran Trippier hurts, I think they can figure out how to whip in crosses without him.
And while Fulham are in incredible form, I don't think home games against Nottingham Forest and West Ham can be compared to a trip to St. James' Park. At -200 to win less than a week ago, I think these odds are too good to pass up with Newcastle dropping as low as -115 to win this game.
EPL Best Bets for Aston Villa at Brentford
Brentford to win either half against Aston Villa +100
The absence of Bryan Mbeumo has kind of killed the fun Brentford team seen throughout the last couple seasons. Without numerous regular starters, Brentford have failed to hit the back of the net since Mbeumo went down in the first half against Brighton. However, I think that changes in this spot.
Thomas Frank is known for swapping formations based on opponent and motivating his team when their backs are up against the wall. Following a loss to Sheffield United, their backs are against the wall facing maybe the hottest team in the league. Of course, Aston Villa haven't been the same side away from home and that's why I think Brentford can challenge in this spot.
My bet for this game jumped around since nothing stood out in the numbers, as I looked at over 2.5 goals, over 3.5 goals and even some kind of double chance single-game parlay.
Instead, I'm going against the public. Why not bet on Frank and Brentford at home? Why not bet against a team that's riding high but won't have Douglas Luiz and Lucas Digne? Brentford to score first is +115, but I feel slightly more comfortable in them to win either half at +100. Let's do it.
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EPL Best Bets for Brighton at Arsenal and Manchester United at Liverpool
Parlay: Arsenal to win (-215) and Liverpool to win (-320) = -109
In addition to not playing great lately, Brighton put out a mostly full strength squad Thursday in Europa League, while Arsenal rotated Tuesday. I think the Gunners should be closer to -300 favorites, though the odds are likely influenced by last season's results. However, I think Arsenal are better and Brighton are worse since last season.
Liverpool have been great at home this season, while Manchester United have been mostly bad and have numerous injuries on the back line in addition to not having the suspended Bruno Fernandes.
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EPL Betting Picks Matchday 17
- Manchester City -4 corners against Palace -120
- Newcastle to beat Fulham -115
- Brentford to win either half against Aston Villa +100
- Parlay: Arsenal to win (-215) and Liverpool to win (-320) = -109
Adam's Betting History (for this article)
2022: 79-58-2. Up $2,281 on $100 bets.
2021: 88-92-8. Up $222 on $100 bets.
2020: 78-91-1. Up $228 on $100 bets.
Visit RotoWire all season for exclusive sports betting picks and our weekly Kits & Wagers betting show. Remember that betting apps vary in terms of odds, so we have an easy-to-use odds page that allows you to shop for the best lines at DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM and PointsBet. You can also use the WynnBET promo code for $100 in free bets.
