This article is part of our Soccer Picks series.
Burnley won at Luton Town back in October and three points to either side in this matchup will be vital in deciding who stays above the drop. Sitting four points back in the table, Burnley know they can't let this opportunity pass.
Record: 33-41-1. Down $512 on $100 bets.
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EPL Best Bets for Luton Town at Burnley
Burnley to beat Luton Town +100
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Burnley have lost three-straight matches including the FA Cup, but they came against teams in the top five of the Premier League table. The standings may not show it, but they've been playing better over the last month, at least from my point of view.
They should've taken a point at Aston Villa and did take a point at Brighton in addition to winning 2-0 at Fulham. The losses are definitely a concern, yet Luton Town are clearly a different matchup than any of those.
Similar to Burnley, it can be argued that Luton Town are playing better now than earlier in the season. That may be true, but Luton still have their problems away from home (nine matches, 20 goals allowed) and their back line is not the same without Tom Lockyer. Most recently, they gave up two goals at Sheffield United and three at home against Chelsea.
In three matchups the last two seasons, these teams have been fairly even. However, at home in an almost must-win spot, I think I can reasonably bet on Burnley to win at +100. They've had a problem finishing this season, but Luton are a mistake-prone team in the back, seen in one clean sheet from 20 league matches.
The possible absence of Lyle Foster, Jordan Beyer and Charlie Taylor is worrying, though I think at least two of them start. If not, I may have to retract this bet. Conveniently, Vincent Kompany didn't give any injury updates at his pre-match press conference.
Burnley should be near 60-percent possession unless they score multiple goals early and then take their foot off the pedal. I don't think either team will be completely dominant and that should lead to things being somewhat open and back and forth with the edge going to the home side.
In addition to the moneyline, I put together one of my patented "safe" single-game parlays. The odds aren't huge, but instead of moneyline, it's a bet on Burnley double chance with a few other likely things built in.
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EPL Betting Picks for Burnley and Luton Town
- Burnley to beat Luton Town +100
- SGP: Burnley Double Chance + Burnley O.5 Goals + O3.5 Corners 1st Half + Luton Town O2.5 Corners + Burnley O4.5 Corners = +210
Adam's Betting History (for this article)
2022: 79-58-2. Up $2,281 on $100 bets.
2021: 88-92-8. Up $222 on $100 bets.
2020: 78-91-1. Up $228 on $100 bets.
Visit RotoWire all season for exclusive sports betting picks and our weekly Kits & Wagers betting show. Remember that betting apps vary in terms of odds, so we have an easy-to-use odds page that allows you to shop for the best lines at DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM and PointsBet. You can also use the WynnBET promo code for $100 in free bets.
