This article is part of our Soccer Picks series.
Legs may be tired but Premier League matches continue in the midweek with six Gameweek 14 contests Wednesday.
Record: 23-20. Up $408 on $100 bets.
EPL Best Bets for Chelsea at Southampton
Chelsea -1.5 corners 1st Half +100
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I took Chelsea corners in their match at Leicester City a couple weeks ago and I feel similar to this one despite Southampton being a different side that likes to possess the ball. The Saints could be missing 11 players in this match, including Taylor Harwood-Bellis and Flynn Downes, two of their most consistent players in the center of the pitch.
Considering Chelsea are -105 to score three or more goals, I'm turning to corners and -1.5 in the first half is my favorite. At -115 to reach seven corners, it only makes sense that they'll get a bunch in the first half.
EPL Best Bets for Liverpool at Newcastle United
Newcastle race to 5 corners +165
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Newcastle have been in a weird funk since the break. They (somewhat) outplayed West Ham but gave up two goals and couldn't score from 18 shots. At Crystal Palace over the weekend, they managed just one shot and .04 xG, scoring from an own goal.
There's a chance those results mean something, but I think playing at St. James' Park under the lights will also mean something, especially against the top team in the league. Liverpool will likely try to win this game on the counter, allowing the Magpies to have more of the ball but limiting them to minimal opportunities.
Liverpool are allowing less than three corners per away match this season, but they've played Ipswich, Wolves, Crystal Palace and Southampton.
This feels like a return to the ugly, grind-it-out type games Liverpool had more of earlier in the season and while I like under 2.5 goals at +130, I can't pass up a corners bet with Newcastle at home.
EPL Best Bets for Manchester United at Arsenal
Arsenal over 2.5 goals against Man United +140
This is the most difficult match of Ruben Amorim's early tenure with Manchester United. They're coming off a massive win, but home against Everton is a bit different than away to Arsenal, especially without Kobbie Mainoo and Lisandro Martinez. United will try and press, but assuming Martin Odegaard starts again, the Gunners could easily carve up what may be a mistake-heavy back line in this spot.
The odds already suggest an Arsenal win, but I'm betting on goals since I think this could be another big outing for the Gunners after bagging five in each of their last two.
EPL Best Bets for Brentford at Aston Villa
SGP: Aston Villa double chance + both teams to score -115
This is about as easy as it gets for both teams to score, though it's priced at only -185. Unless Unai Emery tells his team to play like they're in Champions League, this match figures to feature a lot of goals.
Villa seem to get burned multiple times each match on the counter, while Brentford haven't really cared about conceding goals because they're scoring so many. Even in difficult trips to Manchester City, Manchester United and Tottenham, the Bees still managed to score.
That being the case, I can't envision Villa losing this match at home. They're in need of points and Emery is one of the best bounce-back managers in the league even if recent results haven't gone their way.
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EPL Betting Picks Wednesday, Dec. 4
- Chelsea -1.5 corners 1st Half +100
- Newcastle race to 5 corners +165
- Arsenal over 2.5 goals against Man United +140
- SGP: Aston Villa double chance + both teams to score -115
Adam's Betting History (for this article)
2023: 45-69-2. Down $1,482 on $100 bets.
2022: 79-58-2. Up $2,281 on $100 bets.
2021: 88-92-8. Up $222 on $100 bets.
2020: 78-91-1. Up $228 on $100 bets.
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