This article is part of our Soccer Picks series.
International breaks are seemingly breaking players. Numerous Premier League players opted not to travel and play for their countries over this past break, most of them citing minor knocks or issues they've been playing with for their clubs.
Sometimes that helps when betting on matches out of the break because you know certain players are rested (Bukayo Saka, Cole Palmer), but there are plenty others who suffer long-term injuries while with national teams (Martin Odegaard previously, Jan Bednarek).
Needless to say, the growing number of matches for the elite players continues to grow. Will that change how you bet matches in the future? Maybe not now, but unsuspecting rotation is always at play for some managers.
Looking for more Premier League bets? Check out Kits & Wagers, a weekly betting show, where Adam and Chris Owen provide six bets from six different matches. Adam also has a separate Corners & Wagers show where he talks only on corners. He provides four corners bets this week.
Record: 18-16. Up $286 on $100 bets.
EPL Best Bets for Wolverhampton at Fulham
Fulham -1.5 corners first half against Wolves +100
SGP: Fulham double chance + both teams to score -110
Premier League corner bets can be found at the DraftKings Sportsbook. If you need to sign up, click through our DraftKings promo code page for a deposit bonus.
Wolves have found some form (and life) in their last few matches, but I'm not sure they are a different team than before. Three points were nice against Southampton, yet they managed just 29-percent possession at home with eight shots. I think this will be a similar game in which they try to survive off the counter, allowing Matheus Cunha to do what he's been doing most of the season. Against better teams, that's usually not enough.
I like Fulham to win and both teams to score, though I'm oddly more confident in betting their corners. Instead of taking race to seven corners at even odds, I think -1.5 first-half corners is a great bet. If you don't like corners, Fulham double chance and both teams to score is -110 odds.
EPL Best Bets for Brentford at Everton
SGP: Everton double chance + both teams to score +180
Premier League SGPs are available at BetMGM. If you haven't signed up, you can use the BetMGM bonus code ROTOBONUS for a risk-free bet.
While it's a packed weekend, this Everton and Brentford match is as intriguing as any, at least for me. Everton have been Sean Dyche-ing every game for the past month, en route to five total goals being scored in their last five league matches. After getting back some players from injury (and losing others like Dwight McNeil), they've found more of a defensive shape than earlier in the season, leading to a lot of ugly matches.
Brentford have been the opposite, scoring in bunches while also giving up a ton of easy looks on their own net. History suggests Everton are the better side to back, as the more stable side playing at home. However, it doesn't feel right to back them to win the way they're playing. I initially had a corners bet locked in, but I've been riding BTTS and double chance bets in every Brentford match this season, which has often worked.
Brentford have had a difficult run of away matches and I think those struggles continue in this spot. The more difficult part of this bet is getting both teams to score in an Everton match. I think Brentford's up-and-down play combined with a less-than-average defense is enough for this bet to hit again.
EPL Best Bets for Crystal Palace at Aston Villa
Aston Villa -2.5 corners against Palace +100
Both of these teams are dealing with numerous injuries so that initially turned me off a bet. However, I still think Palace's lack of attacking threat is an edge for Aston Villa, even without Boubacar Kamara and Amadou Onana.
Villa have been one of the best in the league at limiting corners the past year and the absence of Eberechi Eze is reason enough to bet on that in this matchup. Instead of looking to an over/under, I think Villa -2.5 corners for the match is the best route at even odds.
EPL Best Bets for Liverpool at Southampton
Liverpool win to nil against Southampton +130
Southampton are one of the worst teams in the league at progressive passes and dribbling. In a match where they likely won't have majority of possession, it's hard to see them getting great opportunities to score. They had .21 xG against Manchester City and 1.12 xG from six shots against Manchester United.
They'll probably have a couple chances on the counter, but Liverpool have shown they can snuff out most of those instances, allowing just six goals in 11 league matches. Southampton have scored seven goals in their 11 matches despite being fourth in the league in possession percentage. This feels like a simple, 2-0 type of win for Liverpool.
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EPL Betting Picks Matchday 12
- Fulham -1.5 corners first half against Wolves +100
- SGP: Fulham double chance + both teams to score -110
- SGP: Everton double chance + both teams to score +180
- Aston Villa -2.5 corners against Palace +100
- Liverpool win to nil against Southampton +130
Adam's Betting History (for this article)
2023: 45-69-2. Down $1,482 on $100 bets.
2022: 79-58-2. Up $2,281 on $100 bets.
2021: 88-92-8. Up $222 on $100 bets.
2020: 78-91-1. Up $228 on $100 bets.
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