NHL PrizePicks Today: Top NHL Player Props & Picks for April 13 – Best Plays
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Note: Time on Ice projections and picks can change frequently throughout the day due to injuries and changes to line combinations, especially power-play lines. I encourage readers to check the comments section below for any last-minute updates prior to puck drop.
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Card Overview: I mentioned a week ago that it's important to stick with your system and not get too wrapped up in playoff situations, but I again fell into that trap on Saturday. The reason, of course, is that with many teams having little to nothing to play for, the guys that I normally would use aren't in reliable spots any longer. That will change once the playoffs roll around, but for now, it's a tricky spot. Taking the more option on any player is risky unless their team needs to win and there are only a few of those teams remaining.
As for taking the less option because I'm assuming the coach wants to pull back on a player's minutes, well, that's not going to happen anymore. Unless I've seen evidence that a coach is pulling back minutes, I'm no longer going to assume that any coach is going to do the smart thing and dial back the minutes until I see it.
BUILDING BLOCKS
Philip Broberg 22.75 vs. Minnesota Wild - 8:00 p.m. ET (LESS)
It seems like the best plays over the past couple of weeks have come from taking the less option on players from teams that have been recently eliminated. The Blues found themselves in that situation recently, and as such, they've pulled back on Broberg's minutes as he played a ton while Colton Parayko was out a while back, and now they're giving him a break. Broberg has gone under this number in two consecutive games, one of which was a trail script for nearly half the game. The Blues face a Wild team tonight that has nothing to play for, and while the Wild haven't been wise with their decisions down the stretch, I have a feeling they'll be resting some players this week.
Brandon Montour 22.75 vs. Los Angeles Kings - 9:30 p.m. ET (LESS)
Another case of a player on a recently eliminated team seeing fewer minutes lately. Montour has gone under in three of his past five games, and it would have been 4/5 if not for an OT game on April 9th. Montour has always played more minutes in negative scripts, but that hasn't really been the case over his past four games. Seattle is just trying to get to the end of the season, and the Kraken seem determined to spread the minutes out among their three D-pairs. Let's hope that trend continues tonight.
Travis Sanheim 24.75 vs. Carolina Hurricanes - 7:00 p.m. ET (MORE)
Philadelphia is one of the few teams left with something to play for, and while they are in a good spot, up a point on Washington with a game in hand, I'm sure they just want to take care of business tonight and leave nothing to chance. The tricky thing here is that the Flyers have shown a pattern of rotating heavy minutes between their top-2 pairs. One game, Sanheim's pair gets the heavy minutes, the next it's the 2nd-pair. This hasn't always been the case, but we have seen it a couple of times over the past few weeks. I think we're okay here, though, because it's not a back-to-back, so Sanheim has had a rest day, and Saturday, it wasn't both players on the 1st line that saw a lot of minutes; it was just Sanheim. He played over 25 minutes in a 7-1 win, so it was obviously a plan to play him a lot. Let's hope that's the case again tonight.
SCRIPT/LINE/INJURY DEPENDENT
Rasmus Dahlin 23.5 at Chicago Blackhawks - 8:30 p.m. ET (LESS)
I thought about putting Dahlin in as a building block, but there's always a chance that he'll go over in a heavy trail script. With that said, the Sabres have clearly pulled back on his minutes over the past month, and I don't see why they would alter that now. Yes, they can still win the division, but I don't think that's a huge incentive. Heck, Carolina had the top seed in the East at stake and decided to rest half of their starters the past two games. I don't think positioning is nearly as important as health at this point, and the smart teams know that. Dahlin has gone under this number in four of his past five games, and with a great chance that Buffalo plays from ahead tonight, it should be 5/6 after this one.
Porter Martone 16.5 vs. Carolina Hurricanes - 7:00 p.m. ET (MORE)
You know I don't like using forwards, but this one seems pretty clear-cut. If the Flyers are in a close game, or preferably trailing, Martone is going to get his minutes. Martone was called up in late March, and the pattern has held - he's gone over this number in all three losses, and he's even gone over once in a game that Philly won. Yes, that was an OT game, but it was also a game where the Flyers led for nearly two entire periods. Considering how well the Hurricanes have played lately, I'm expecting this game to be tight, which should be all we need.
Roman Josi 26.75 vs. San Jose Sharks - 8:00 p.m. ET (MORE)
A game with two teams that are playing for their playoff lives tonight. San Jose needs to win out to have a chance, and Nashville probably needs to win out as well. Nashville has been in "must-win" mode for a couple of weeks now, and the Preds are clearly leaning on Josi. He's gone over this number in four of his past games, and the only time he missed was due to injury. If this game stays close, he should go over, but I'm putting him in this section because I'd much rather see a trail script tonight, which would guarantee a win.
