This article is part of our NFL DFS Pick 'Em series.
Underdog NFL Pick 'Em Plays for Week 9
We're back at it for our Week 9 Underdog Pick'em selections. By now, we've settled into a nice rhythm so we'll just take a minute to highlight the primary tools I used to reach my picks and reference throughout the article:
Fantasy points allowed vs. Position
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Higher
Keon Coleman – higher than 8.55 fantasy points
This selection has to do with a combination of the scoring system on Underdog and Coleman's usage in the Buffalo offense. As for the former, UD is a 0.5 PPR site, meaning players who score touchdowns and make big plays benefit more than possession receivers. That brings us to Coleman, who has four receptions of at least 20 yards and three targets inside the 10-yard line in his last two games. Overall, he's delivered with a bigger role, making this an attainable number.
Kirk Cousins – higher than 250.5 passing yards
Cousins has been inconsistent this season and Atlanta, and the offense prefers to run the ball when possible. Those are the downsides to this pick, but there are also plenty of positives. The first is that this is expected to be a close game, so the Falcons shouldn't be playing from ahead by a significant margin – if at all – which should keep them out of a truly heavy game script. More importantly, both Micah Parsons (groin) and DaRon Bland (foot) are out, while Trevon Diggs (calf) is questionable. Those are three key figures to a Dallas defense that allows 8.22 yards per attempt, the highest mark in the league.
Courtland Sutton - higher than 49.5 receiving yards
The Baltimore defense has repeatedly proven to be a pass funnel. It has allowed 8.5 yards per target to opposing pass catchers this season, the sixth-highest number of all defensive units. Sutton has suffered from the inconsistency of the Denver offense, but with such a clear path to attacking their opposition, we should expect a pass-heavy game plan. That should benefit Sutton in a positive matchup.
Justin Herbert- higher than 225.5 passing yards
The Chargers' offensive philosophy has shifted in recent weeks, shifting from one of the run-heaviest units to a pass-happy team. In Week 8, only the Bengals and Seahawks had a higher pass rate over expected. In the past four weeks, only the Bengals passed more than expected relative to the Chargers. Los Angeles played three times in that span and Herbert has topped this number on all three occasions.
Xavier Legette - higher than 7.25 fantasy points
Relying on the Carolina offense carries obvious risk, after the departure of Diontae Johnson, Legette should have every opportunity to produce in this offense. We only have a one-game sample with Johnson out, but Legette tallied 11.4 half-PPR points. Leggette has also been a favorite target near the end zone – he has three touchdown catches in his last six games – and a trip to the end zone would all but guarantee that he went higher on this prop. Helping his case further is that the Saints have allowed the seventh-most fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers while allowing only five touchdowns. There are multiple paths to Legette have a solid fantasy performance.
Lower
Andrei Iosivas – lower than 2.5 receptions
After an intriguing start to the season, Iosivas has faded even with Tee Higgins (quad) sidelined. He has hit the higher on this prop only twice on the season and didn't see a target in Week 8 against the Eagles despite being on the field for 88 percent of offensive plays.
The beneficiary of Higgins' absence was Mike Gesicki who saw eight targets in Week 8, his highest total since the last time Higgins missed aa game. He has a modest yardage total prop of 35.5, and the higher seems like a good bet that correlates with the lower for Iosivias.
Josh Jacobs - lower than 14.25 fantasy points
On the surface, this one is a pretty easy call as the Lions have allowed the second-fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs on the campaign. The trickier part is accounting for the mounting injuries among Detroit's front seven, as they're missing an extensive number of impact players along the defensive line. However, both Alim McNeil and DJ Reader are healthy and ready to clog things up for Jacobs. Jordan Love is slated to play, so we should see a pass-heavy game plan for the Packers to account for the weaknesses of the Lions' defensive units (pass rush and pass defense).
Alexander Mattison – lower than 51.5 rushing yards
The Raiders haven't been able to get their game going regardless of whether their lead back is Mattison or Zamir White. Mattison has gotten his chance in the last four games and managed to pick up 178 rushing yards on 66 attempts (2.7 yards per carry). Unsurprisingly, news has emerged Mattison is likely to revert back to a shift in role with White in Week 9. Even when getting at least 14 carries per game, he has failed to rush for more than 51.5 yards in three of four games. The Bengals are a mediocre run defense, which isn't enough to make up for the poor rushing attack we've seen from the Raiders all season.
Sam Darnold – lower than 32 pass attempts
The Vikings are a very interesting offense to dive into. The first note is that Darnold has yet to attempt 32 passes this season. Initially, it's not clear why that is, as Minnesota has a 3.1 percent pass rate over expectations. However, its offense is run at a snail's pace, averaging only 19.7 plays per game in neutral game script. The Vikings should be in neutral or positive script in Sunday night's game against the Colts, meaning they shouldn't be pushed out of their preferred way to run the offense.
