This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
What a time to be alive as a sports bettor. Early NFL lines are already available on DraftKings!
Not so long ago, Week 1 point spreads -- as would a handful of "Games of the Year" -- would be posted shortly after the NFL schedule release in May, but not much else. Now we can wager on virtually every regular season game -- even those in Week 18. Combine the information we can glean from all the point spreads with markets on win totals and we can plot the whole season out and maybe find real opportunities before the season kicks off. I set out to do just that.
As for my methodology, I take a mean of the posted win totals markets at the major online sportsbooks, factoring in the juice on either side of the posted number, and use that to ultimately calculate an implied power ranking for each team. This involves using the implied power ranking to derive a fair point spread on each game, then taking those point spreads and converting them to the probability of each team winning. For example, say the implied power rankings suggest the Bengals should be a two-point favorite at Cleveland. A two-point favorite is expected to win 53.49 percent of the time. Thus the Bengals would get .5349 "wins" for that game, and the Browns get .4651 wins. Do this exercise for each game and add them up and you get a season win total. The implied power ranking is ultimately the "best fit" number that gets as close as possible to the win total listed at the sportsbooks.
But wait, there is more! We need to account for home-field advantage. I default to a two-point home field edge, which is about in the middle of the 1.7-1.8 range of the last couple seasons and the 2.2-2.3 range of the last decade. I do not use 2.0 points for every game however. Teams get an extra half point of spread edge per extra half week of rest. That means a team off a bye gets a full extra point versus a team on regular rest, while a team coming off a Thursday game gets an extra half point. Speaking of Thursday games, home teams have won them outright 58 percent of the time over the past decade, which suggests Thursday hosts should get an extra half point edge on the spread on top of the standard two-point home field bump. Finally, there are special situations like Jets "at" Giants, where the Giants have virtually no edge save for a few extra fans in the stands and their logo in the end zone. Also there are teams that tend to have more road fans than home fans in their stadiums (cough…..Chargers….cough) that do not deserve a full two-point bump.
Throw all of that into the "matrix" and here are my implied preseason power rankings.
- Chiefs 6.5
- Bills 5.0
- Eagles 5.0
- Bengals 4.5
- Chargers 3.5
- Niners 3.5
- Cowboys 3.0
- Ravens 2.5
- Dolphins 2.5
- Jets 1.5
- Lions 1.5
- Jaguars 1.0
- Browns 0.5
- Broncos 0.5
- Vikings 0.5
- Seahawks 0.5
- Steelers -0.5
- Patriots -1.0
- Saints -1.0
- Giants -1.5
- Falcons -2.0
- Bears -2.5
- Packers -2.5
- Raiders -2.5
- Titans -2.5
- Commanders -2.5
- Panthers -3.0
- Rams -4.0
- Bucs -5.0
- Colts -5.0
- Texans -5.5
- Cardinals -7.0
There are more caveats! This is a snapshot. The "market" view of several teams will change based on injuries and training camp scuttlebutt. Speaking of injuries, the Cardinals effectively carry two power ratings; one with Kyler Murray and one without. He will likely miss some early season games as he recovers from the ACL surgery that ended his season late in 2022.
So, how do we use these numbers? I best fit the power to the win totals and then used them as a guideline to point spreads on individual games over the course of the season to try to spot any opportunities. Mismatches show up more in hypothetical point spreads via power rankings than in real life, so the bar is much higher on those. If the Chiefs hosted the Cardinals in Week 1, they would not be the 15.5-point favorites these ratings suggest e.g. If my spread is on the other side of a key number like 3.0 or 6.0 or 7.0, that piques my interest whereas I rarely see any value when an already big favorite probably merits an even larger number.
I am mostly looking to "beat" the final spread. By that I mean a wager that is at a price better than the final odds. Picking games a few days out is tough enough. Picking them well over a month out is borderline impossible. But beating the final number more often than not will result in positive returns over time, so that is the goal here.
Early NFL Lines: Games to Target
Here are some games that caught my eye in the first half of 2023.
All odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
Week 3
Cincinnati Bengals (-7.5) vs. 
Los Angeles Rams
I do not love giving points in general, especially just over a touchdown and most especially so far out with so many variables. But the spread on this game just looks considerably too low. I show the Bengals as 10.5-point favorites at home in front of "Who Dey" nation on a Monday night. The Bengals will come in off two division games, including the Ravens the week before. The Rams are in the same boat, however, and in Week 2 they face the 49ers. San Francisco opponents were 0-15 straight up the week after facing the Niners in 2022.
Week 5
Atlanta Falcons (-3.0) vs. 
Houston Texans
The Falcons play in London the week before, so this spread is likely deflated a tad, as I show it worth 5.5. Teams have only recently had the option of not taking a bye after a London game, so the sample size is small. Thus far there is no trend in regards to covering, as such teams have a 4-4-1 record ATS in that spot.
Week 6
Jacksonville Jaguars (-6.5) vs. 
Indianapolis Colts
Again we have an undervalued home favorite returning from London without a bye against a presumably bad team. This game features a Jaguars team that looks pretty good heading into the season and is very acclimated to going overseas, as they do it every year. In fact they will make history as they have two straight London games heading into this one. I show them as 8.0-point favorite, so even if that is a half point overstated, it still carries us through the key number of 7.0.
Week 8
New York Jets (-1.5) at 
New York Giants
I am a life-long Giants fan. I harbor no ill will against the Jets, but it pains me to pick them here. I show the Jets as a 4.0-point favorite, and that generously gives the Giants a one-point home-field edge, but then subtracts it as the Jets enter off a bye.
