NFL Game Previews: 49ers-Vikings Matchup

MONDAY NIGHT

San Francisco at Minnesota (+7), o/u 44 – Monday, 8:15 p.m. EDT

The Niners (and Brock Purdy for that matter) were bound to lose one eventually despite their early dominance, but the way they got mugged by the Browns could end up costing them more than one game. They limped out of Cleveland with Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, Trent Williams and others on the injury report, and an extra day to recuperate might not be enough time to get them all back in the lineup. It's not like this team doesn't lack for talent, though. If CMac is out, Elijah Mitchell nearly ran for 1,000 yards in only 11 games a couple years ago, while Jordan Mason has scored in back-to-back games and has a career 5.9 YPC in limited duty. If Deebo can't go, Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle are more than capable of carrying the load. San Francisco has scored at least 30 points in every other game this season, and if an elite Browns defense is the only one that can keep them below that mark, they'll be just fine.

Kings of the narrow margin no longer, the Vikings have played six one-score games to begin their campaign and won just two of them, and the wins came against the Panthers and Bears – not exactly signature victories. On the other hand, the losses have all come against teams either currently leading their division or that were considered legit playoff teams coming into 2023 (looking at you, Chargers), so you can at least make a case that it's too early to write them off just yet. Even a 2-5 record after a loss here could improve rapidly once the Vikes get to the mushy middle of their schedule (after Monday, Minnesota's next five games are at Green Bay, at Atlanta, home to the Saints, at Denver and home to the Bears. A .500 record heading into a Week 13 bye still looks pretty plausible.) Kirk Cousins doesn't seem to want to be traded to a contender either before hitting free agency, which frankly makes sense. Even without Justin Jefferson available for a while, he's going to put up better numbers as a Viking – in a system he knows well, playing an indoor home stadium, and trying to cover for a defense that has trouble slowing down the opposition – than he would as a Jet or whatever.

The Skinny

SF injuries: RB McCaffrey (questionable, oblique), WR Samuel (questionable, shoulder), LB Dre Greenlaw (questionable, hamstring)
MIN injuries: WR Jefferson (IR, hamstring)

SF DFS targets: Jauan Jennings $3,800 DK / $5,300 FD Ray-Ray McCloud $3,000 DK / $4,900 FD (MIN 32nd in DVOA vs. WR2)
MIN DFS targets: none

SF DFS fades: Aiyuk $6,700 DK / $7,700 FD (MIN third in DVOA vs. WR1)
MIN DFS fades: Cousins $6,900 DK / $7,300 FD (SF second in passing DVOA, third in YPA allowed), K.J. Osborn $4,600 DK / $6,000 FD (SF second in DVOA vs. WR2), T.J. Hockenson $6,700 DK / $6,100 FD (SF second in DVOA vs. TE)

Key stat: SF is fourth in red-zone conversions at 69.2 percent (18-for-26), and t-1st in trips to the red zone; MIN is t-26th in red-zone defense at 66.7 percent (10-for-15)

The Scoop: Mason leads the SF backfield with 60 yards and a score, while Mitchell adds 50 yards and a touchdown. Purdy throws for 240 yards and two TDs, finding Kittle and Jennings McCloud. Alexander Mattison stumbles to 40 yards. Cousins throws for 230 yards and two scores, hitting Jordan Addison and Brandon Powell. 49ers 31-14

EARLY SUNDAY

Detroit (+3) at Baltimore, o/u 42 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

Jared Goff did his best to dismiss all the Home Goff vs. Road Goff talk last week as he tore up the Tampa Bay secondary for 353 yards and two TDs, but he might have no choice but to come up big in this one. He could be meeting his backfield for the first time at the airport — David Montgomery is probably out with a rib injury, 2023 first-round pick Jahmyr Gibbs is still trying to get past a hamstring strain and even No. 3 option Craig Reynolds is banged up. That could leave veteran Devine Ozigbo and undrafted rookie Mohamed Ibrahim, who was just signed to the practice squad Tuesday, taking snaps and touches. Goff attempted a season-high 44 passes last week, and 50 could be in reach Sunday if he's getting no help from his running game. The good news is even if that doesn't work, Detroit's already three wins ahead of the pack in the NFC North, so they have a bit of as cushion.

The Ravens are the only team in the AFC North with four wins, but everyone else has three, and the Bengals seems to be returning to form on both sides of the ball while the Browns just handed the 49ers their first loss and bullied them around in doing it. (Also, the Steelers are still the Steelers, so you can expect them to win at least three more games the rest of the year that no one can explain afterward how they pulled off.) In other words, no cushion. Lamar Jackson is headed for the most accurate and efficient season of his career — he's got a 69.9 percent completion rate through six games — but somehow that's resulted in even fewer passing TDs than usual rather than more. He's made up for it with four rushing touchdowns, but something has to give eventually through the air. It might just be a question of chemistry with his receivers. Mark Andrews is still a rock, and Jackson's clicked with rookie Zay Flowers quickly, but Rashod Bateman hasn't really seemed 100 percent healthy since his Lisfranc surgery and Odell Beckham is, well, let's face facts — he's a 30-year-old wideout who hasn't topped 1,000 yards since 2019 and didn't play at all last year. Expectations should be much, much lower than they have been. Nelson Agholor's been a useful stop-gap, but that's all he is. Baltimore might need Bateman to finally get and stay healthy (or maybe trade for a true 1A or 1B option to complement Flowers) to really become dangerous on offense.

The Skinny

DET injuries: RB Montgomery (questionable, ribs), RB Gibbs (questionable, hamstring), RB Reynolds (questionable, hamstring), TE Sam LaPorta (questionable, calf), S Brian Branch (questionable, ankle)
BAL injuries: no fantasy-relevant injuries

DET DFS targets: none
BAL DFS targets: none

DET DFS fades: Goff $6,400 DK / $7,600 FD (BAL second in net passing yards per game allowed, second in YPA allowed), Jameson Williams $3,800 DK / $5,600 FD (BAL first in DVOA vs. deep throws)
BAL DFS fades: Gus Edwards $4,800 DK / $5,800 FD and Justice Hill $4,600 DK / $5,400 FD (DET third in rushing DVOA, first in rushing yards per game allowed, second in YPC allowed)

Key stat: BAL is fifth in third-down conversions at 46.0 percent; DET is t-4th in third-down defense at 33.3 percent

Weather notes: clear, temperature in the high 50s, 20-25 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Gibbs plays and leads the DET backfield with 70 scrimmage yards and a receiving score. Goff throws for 230 yards and a second TD to Amon-Ra St. Brown. Hill leads the BAL backfield with 80 combined yards. Jackson throws for less than 200 yards but finds Andrews for one touchdown and runs in another. A missed FG and PAT by Riley Patterson proves to be the difference. Ravens 20-16

Las Vegas at Chicago (+3), o/u 37.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

Welcome to Mystery Quarterback Week! Seemingly half the teams in the league either have starters on the injured list who may or may not make it to kickoff, or already know they'll be trotting out backups who the average NFL fan may or may not have ever heard of. This game features both flavors of mystery. Jimmy Garoppolo left last week's game with a back issue serious enough that he was taken to a hospital for evaluation, but the Raiders are just listing him as questionable. Brian Hoyer replaced him against the Patriots, fittingly enough, but last time Garoppolo missed a start in Week 4 it was rookie Aidan O'Connell under center in his place. That didn't go so well, but Chicago's secondary isn't a particularly challenging matchup, so Josh McDaniels might get frisky again. Hey, good thing Garoppolo's foot is OK, though. Meanwhile, Davante Adams doesn't care who's throwing him passes, just so long as they remember to throw it to him, something they've only done nine times the last two games.

On the other sideline, Justin Fields can't grip a football after dislocating his thumb, which seems like it would be important for a QB. Matt Eberflus' options for replacing him are either former Raiders backup Nathan Peterman, or undrafted rookie Tyson Bagent out of Division II Shepherd. Bills fans can tell you why Bagent might be the favorite to get the nod, though I have to admit I'm kind of rooting for either a Peterman revenge game, or a classic Peterman arm-puntalooza. Either would be very entertaining to this impartial observer. The real spot to watch in Chicago is the backfield, though. If rookie Roschon Johnson clears the concussion protocol (grammatical note: that one always throws me, as there are five steps so my brain always assumes it should be "protocols") he has a golden opportunity to lay claim to the starting job and not give it up, considering he'd be facing a Vegas defense that's 27th in DVOA against the run and ranks in the bottom half of the league in standard metrics like YPC.

The Skinny

LV injuries: QB Garoppolo (questionable, back), WR Adams (questionable, shoulder), EDGE Maxx Crosby (questionable, knee)
CHI injuries: QB Fields (doubtful, thumb), RB Johnson (questionable, concussion), RB Khalil Herbert (IR, ankle), S Eddie Jackson (questionable, foot)

LV DFS targets: Garoppolo (?) $5,200 DK / $6,800 FD (CHI 30th in passing DVOA, 31st in passing TDs allowed), Tre Tucker $3,000 DK / $4,600 FD (CHI 30th in DVOA vs. deep throws)
CHI DFS targets: none

LV DFS fades: none
CHI DFS fades: none

Key stat: CHI is 14th in red-zone conversions at 56.3 percent (9-for-16); LV is 29th in red-zone defense at 70.0 percent (14-for-20)

Weather notes: clear, temperature in the low 50s, 10-15 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Josh Jacobs grinds out 50 yards. Garoppolo starts but doesn't finish the game, giving way to Hoyer in the second half with the latter hitting Adams for a score. Johnson starts and dashes for 90 yards and a touchdown. Bagent also starts and throws for less than 200 yards while getting picked off twice, but he does find Cole Kmet for a TD. Bears 23-19

Cleveland at Indianapolis (+3), o/u 40.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

FYI, my little score-generating algorithm originally had the underdog winning outright in the first four games on this slate, but then once I factored in the wind in Baltimore, the Ravens came out on top to ruin the streak. Make of that what you will.

The Browns' defense put together maybe the most impressive performance of the season by any team on either side of the ball last week against the 49ers — and no, I'm not forgetting about the Dolphins' 70-point destruction of the Broncos, or the Cowboys' shutout of the Giants in their opener. Those two beat up on inferior opponents; Cleveland dominated the explosive offense of a team that rolled in undefeated and which was generally considered to be the best in the NFL, handing Brock Purdy his first career regular-season loss along the way. Sure, the Browns needed Jake Moody to miss a field goal to actually win the game, but that was because PJ Walker and the offense wasn't getting much done, not because of Myles Garrett and the defense. Walker might be back under center again this week, and I'm coming around to the idea that instead of giving Deshaun Watson side-eye for being a malingerer, the frustration of fantasy GMs should be directed at Cleveland's training staff for "clearing" him in the first place and forcing him into the position of being the Guy Who Refused To Play. He's now missed two games sandwiched around the Browns' bye, and he could be headed for a third consecutive absence. This is, after all, the same team that made Baker Mayfield the fall guy when his performance declined while he played through his own shoulder issue. (Mayfield, incidentally, is on track for a career-high completion percentage in Tampa Bay.) The idea of whether Watson is really an upgrade at quarterback, much less an upgrade worth 230 million (dollars or PR headaches, take your pick), may need to be re-examined next offseason.

The Colts got taken to the woodshed last week by the Jags, as Gardner Minshew decided to be a sleeper agent rather than an avenging angel. With Anthony Richardson done for the year, though, Minshew's what Shane Steichen has to work with. Odds are that will be good news for the receiving corps overall, but the veteran QB will probably have another clunker or two before the season's over, as he's a backup for a reason. Indy also doesn't seem to be in a hurry to push Jonathan Taylor back into a big workload, as both he and Zack Moss had 13 touches last week, and Moss was the one to get into the end zone. JT's contract says he will eventually be the clear No. 1, but as long as Moss remains productive he won't disappear from the picture, and Steichen might decide he's better off leaning on his run game rather than asking Minshew to do too much.

The Skinny

CLE injuries: QB Watson (questionable, shoulder), RB Kareem Hunt (questionable, thigh)
IND injuries: QB Richardson (IR, shoulder), WR Alec Pierce (questionable, shoulder), TE Kylen Granson (questionable, concussion)

CLE DFS targets: none
IND DFS targets: none

CLE DFS fades: none
IND DFS fades: Minshew $5,200 DK / $6,400 FD (CLE first in passing DVOA, first in net passing yards per game allowed, first in YPA allowed), Michael Pittman $6,600 DK / $7,000 FD (CLE fourth in DVOA vs. WR1), Josh Downs $4,500 DK / $5,700 FD (CLE first in DVOA vs. WR2)

Key stat: CLE is 31st in third-down conversions at 30.6 percent; IND is t-11th in third-down defense at 37.5 percent

The Scoop: Jerome Ford leads the CLE backfield with 70 yards and a score. Walker starts again and throws for less than 200 yards but does find Amari Cooper for a touchdown. Taylor finds the end zone for the first time in 2023 while Minshew also throws for less than 200 yards but does hit Pittman for a TD. Colts 20-17

Buffalo at New England (+8.5), o/u 41 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

The Bills didn't have jet lag to blame for last week's performance, but fortunately they were playing a team bad enough that they still escaped with a win. It's still worrying that an offense this talented has been held to 20 points or less in half its games. Josh Allen had a rough night, getting checked out for a possible concussion before returning and suffering a shoulder injury, but Buffalo's offense looked sluggish long before that. Somehow, Stefon Diggs has been the only one immune to the malaise, reaching 100 receiving yards in five of six games and looking like he might be fantasy WR1 for the rest of the season now that Justin Jefferson's on the shelf. The defense is also showing the strain of trying to patch over key injuries to Tre'Davious White and Matt Milano, and it might be time for Von Miller to roar back into form and kick an already dangerous pass rush into overdrive so the secondary can get settled back in.

The Patriots managed to keep things close against the Raiders after getting routed the prior two weeks, but Vegas was built on the false hope of near wins. New England's minus-80 point differential through six games is the worst in the AFC, and only the Giants at minus-96 are worse in the whole league. Nothing's been working, on either side of the ball. Mac Jones getting benched in the second half is becoming a regular occurrence, and the team is desperate enough that Malik Cunningham is starting to look like the most viable alternative. Meanwhile, the defense hasn't given up a ton of real estate, sitting eighth in yards per play allowed, but the unit is banged up (well, the whole team is), can't generate splash plays and eventually gets worn down by the offense's ineptitude — only the Steelers average less time per drive than the Pats, and nobody averages fewer points per drive.

The Skinny

BUF injuries: QB Allen (questionable, shoulder)
NE injuries: RB Rhamondre Stevenson (questionable, ankle), TE Hunter Henry (questionable, ankle)

BUF DFS targets: Deonte Harty $3,000 DK / $4,600 FD (NE 32nd in DVOA vs. WR3), Bills DST $4,200 DK / $5,000 FD (t-2nd in takeaways, t-1st in sacks)
NE DFS targets: Stevenson $5,600 DK / $6,600 FD (BUF 31st in YPC allowed), Kendrick Bourne $4,400 DK / $5,800 FD (BUF 30th in DVOA vs. WR1)

BUF DFS fades: James Cook $6,400 DK / $7,000 FD (NE third in YPC allowed), Diggs $8,900 DK / $9,000 FD (NE first in DVOA vs. WR1)
NE DFS fades: JuJu Smith-Schuster $3,200 DK / $5,200 FD (BUF third in DVOA vs. WR3), Patriots DST $2,100 DK / $3,000 FD (32nd in takeaways, BUF fourth in sacks allowed)

Head-to-head record, last five years including playoffs: 6-5 BUF, average score 23-19 BUF, average margin of victory 13 points. BUF has won six of the last seven meetings, including three straight at Gillette Stadium by an average score of 32-13
Key stat: NE is second in red-zone conversions at 70.0 percent (7-for-10), but 31st in trips to the red zone. BUF is fourth in red-zone defense at 35.0 percent (7-for-20)

Weather notes: overcast, temperature in the mid-50s, 20-25 mph wind, 25-30 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Cook picks up 70 combined yards. Allen throws for 210 yards and two TDs, one each to Dalton Kincaid and Gabe Davis, while also running in a touchdown. Ezekiel Elliott leads the NE backfield with 40 yards. Jones throws for less than 200 yards and gets sacked five times, but he does find Bourne for a score. Bills 27-10

Washington at N.Y. Giants (+2), o/u 39.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

Round 1 in the Battle for the NFC East basement sees the 3-3 Commanders roll into MetLife Stadium after stealing a win in Atlanta despite generating less than 200 yards of net offense and giving up more than 400. A plus-3 turnover advantage can do that for you. Washington is kind of looking like a team that might back into into the final wild-card spot when no one's looking, to be honest. Yeah, they no-showed against Chicago, but they've otherwise beaten the dregs of the league like the Cards and Broncos, and their other losses have come against plausible Super Bowl contenders in the Bills and Eagles. In three games since his Peterman-esque showing against Buffalo in Week 3, Sam Howell has completed 69.6 percent of his passes with a 6:1 TD:INT, numbers more than good enough to get the team to the playoffs if the defense gets its act together. Unfortunately, letting Desmond Ridder go off against them (by Ridder's standards, anyway) has been SOP for the Commanders lately. The last five weeks, they've been tagged for 33 or more points four times and averaged more than 410 total yards allowed.

It doesn't really matter who you want to blame — Tyrod Taylor, Brian Daboll, offensive coordinator Mike Kafka, the refs or some combination thereof. The Giants still lost a very winnable game against the Bills last week and now are 1-5, with their season hanging by the thinnest of threads. Teams have made the playoffs after similar starts — heck, the 1970 Bengals did it after beginning the year 1-6, and they had a lot fewer postseason slots available back then — but not many, and they all generally had one exceptional thing about them to carry the comeback. That Cincy squad, for instance, had a young OC named Bill Walsh installing the prototype for what became the West Coast Offense to fuel their recovery. The Giants have ... uhh, Saquon Barkley, I guess? Barkley basically had one good drive against the Bills, but it was a great one, and it would have been enough to get the job done had it not been for (choose from list above.) I'm not going to say he can't do it. Purely based on talent, I don't think Barkley's out of place in a conversation that involves Hall of Fame RBs like Walter Payton and Barry Sanders, who also helped lead remarkable turnarounds in their prime. He's only been healthy for a full season twice since being drafted in 2018, though, and 2023 has already been scratched off that last as he's missed half of the Giants' six games. If he breaks down again, or even just isn't 100 percent healthy for a stretch, just take a pair of scissors, or maybe a blowtorch, to that thin thread.

The Skinny

WAS injuries: EDGE Montez Sweat (questionable, finger)
NYG injuries: QB Daniel Jones (questionable, neck), RB Barkley (questionable, ankle), WR Wan'Dale Robinson (questionable, knee)

WAS DFS targets: Brian Robinson $5,800 DK / $7,300 FD (NYG 30th in YPC allowed)
NYG DFS targets: none

WAS DFS fades: Antonio Gibson $4,700 DK / $5,300 FD (NYG first in passing DVOA vs. RB)
NYG DFS fades: none

Head-to-head record, last five years: 6-3-1 NYG, average score 24-20 NYG, average margin of victory nine points. Six of the last seven meetings have been decided by a single score, including a 20-20 tie in Week 13 of last season
Key stat: NYG are 30th in red-zone conversions at 31.3 percent (5-for-16); WAS is 10th in red-zone defense at 47.6 percent (10-for-21)

Weather notes: cloudy, temperature in the mid-50s, 15-20 mph wind, 5-10 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Robinson leads the WAS backfield with 70 yards and a TD. Howell throws for 260 yards and two touchdowns, finding Terry McLaurin (who tops 100 yards) and Curtis Samuel. Barkley puts together 80 scrimmage yards and a score. Taylor starts again and throws for less than 200 yards while getting picked off twice and sacked five times. Commanders 24-10

Atlanta (+2.5) at Tampa Bay, o/u 38 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

The Falcons continue to play games exactly the way Arthur Smith likes them, as neither team has scored more than 25 points in any Atlanta game in 2023. That's only led to a 3-3 record, though, largely due to a minus-6 turnover differential. Desmond Ridder is showing signs of figuring some things out, topping 300 passing yards in back-to-back games and throwing multiple TD passes for just the second time in his career last week — his first came in Week 18 last season against guess who, the Bucs. With the passing game opening up, Drake London and Kyle Pitts are performing up to their draft pedigree. London's posted a 15-203-0 line on 21 targets during Ridder's mini-surge, while Pitts has gone for an 11-130-1 line on 17 targets. Bijan Robinson, on the other hand, has only managed 83 total rushing yards during those two games, though he's maintained a decent floor with his work as a receiver. I'm not going to try to figure out the chicken and egg on whether Bijan's struggles are causing Ridder's rise, or a product of it, but I can't imagine he'll be held in check too much longer. Looking at the Falcons' schedule, running against Tampa Bay and Tennessee could be tough sledding, but Week 9 against Minnesota is pretty juicy, and he could win somebody a fantasy title in the playoffs weeks (at CAR, vs IND, at CHI in Wks 15-17.) Your window for trying to get Robinson for 90 cents on the dollar in a trade is closing fast.

Did the Bucs know they weren't still on bye last Sunday? Tampa Bay got mollywhopped by Detroit last week, as the poorly named running game got nowhere yet again and the defense didn't bail out the offense with turnovers. Rachaad White has been so bad that Ke'Shawn Vaughn has looked like a viable alternative, and it's a pretty scathing indictment of rookie Sean Tucker that he can't even crack the gameday roster. At least first-year OC Dave Canales is doing some good work with Baker Mayfield, and it's probably not a coincidence that Canales was Seattle's QB coach last year for Geno Smith's renaissance. While other teams run around looking for guys who can develop young quarterbacks, the Bucs might have found a guy who can salvage inexpensive veteran signal-callers. Of course, I could be getting ahead of myself. Mayfield's been no Geno in 2023, and while his 65.4 percent completion rate would be a career high, he's failed to reach a 6.0 YPA in three of five starts. NextGen Stats has him sixth in the league in intended air yards per attempt, though, so it's not like he isn't attacking downfield and trying to let Mike Evans and Chris Godwin do their thing. That's at least reason for optimism, if nothing else.

The Skinny

ATL injuries: no fantasy-relevant injuries
TB injuries: no fantasy-relevant injuries

ATL DFS targets: none
TB DFS targets: none

ATL DFS fades: Falcons DST $2,800 DK / $3,600 FD (t-30th in takeaways, TB fifth in giveaways, first in sacks allowed) 
TB DFS fades: none

Head-to-head record, last five years: 6-4 TB, average score 31-26 TB, average margin of victory 10 points. Four of the last five meetings have been decided by 13 points or more. TB has won three straight meetings at Raymond James Stadium
Key stat: ATL is 15th in red-zone conversions at 55.6 percent (10-for-18); TB is first in red-zone defense at 23.1 percent (3-for-13), and fourth in red-zone trips allowed

Weather notes: cloudy, temperature in the low 80s, less than 10 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Robinson churns out 70 combined yards. Ridder throws for less than 200 yards and a touchdown to London. White ekes out 40 yards. Mayfield throws for 270 yards and two scores, finding Godwin and Trey Palmer, but he also tosses a pick-six to A.J. Terrell. Buccaneers 23-14

LATE SUNDAY

Pittsburgh (+3) at L.A. Rams, o/u 43.5 – Sunday, 4:05 p.m. EDT

If Mike Tomlin leads this Steelers team to an AFC North crown, just put him straight in Canton. I still don't understand how they even have a winning record, but it's even better than it looks at first glance as they're 2-0 in their division, stashing away tiebreakers ahead of an entirely plausible four-way 9-8 finish. Pittsburgh's offense has yet to produce more than 17 first downs in a game and have only 70 through five games — for comparison, both the Chargers and Seahawks have also had their byes and have more than 100 first downs on their ledger. The only thing really working consistently for OC Matt Canada's unit is when Kenny Pickett closes his eyes (I'm assuming) and heaves it in George Pickens' direction, and the second-year wideout does something amazing to catch it. Pickett-to-Pickens is great branding, sure, right up there with the Terrible Towels, but the team needs a more reliable way to produce yards and points. Getting Pat Freiermuth back will help a little, but getting better blocking for Najee Harris would help a lot more. He's top 10 in yards after contact per carry, nestled between James Cook and Derrick Henry, and top 10 in attempts per broken tackle, in the company of RBs like De'Von Achane, David Montgomery and Kenneth Walker. In other words, Najee's not the problem. An offensive line and/or a blocking scheme that has him in the bottom 10 in yards per carry before contact is the bigger issue.

With the 49ers suddenly showing a gap or two in their armor, the 3-3 Rams might be getting ideas, so they really can't afford to give this one away. The three losses have all come against what were supposed to be legit contenders (the Niners, Eagles and Bengals) while they've beaten a couple solid squads in the Seahawks and Colts, so their record doesn't seem like a mirage. Puka Nacua has seen his volume predictably drop with Cooper Kupp back on the field, but he's still been useful with an 11-97-1 line on 18 targets in two games as the No. 2 to Kupp. The veteran, meanwhile, has jumped right back in with a massive 15-266-1 line on 21 targets. Sucks to be any other Rams receiver, though. The backfield is once again up for grabs with Kyren Williams on the shelf, and any or none of 2023 sixth-round pick Zach Evans, former Dolphin Myles Gaskin, journeyman Royce Freeman or even the repatriated Darrell Henderson could get enough touches to make an impact. Evans will get first crack at the starting job, but his leash could be short.

The Skinny

PIT injuries: WR Diontae Johnson (IR-R, hamstring), EDGE Cameron Heyward (IR, groin)
LAR injuries: RB Williams (IR, ankle), LB Ernest Jones (questionable, knee)

PIT DFS targets: none
LAR DFS targets: none

PIT DFS fades: none
LAR DFS fades: Tyler Higbee $3,700 DK / $5,000 FD (PIT first in DVOA vs. TE)

Key stat: PIT is 32nd in red-zone conversions at 28.6 percent (2-for-7), and 32nd in total trips to the red zone; LAR is ninth in red-zone defense at 47.4 percent (9-for-19)

The Scoop: Harris gains only 40 yards. Pickett throws for less than 200 yards and a score to Freiermuth. Evans looks solid in producing 70 yards and a TD. Matthew Stafford throws for 280 yards and two touchdowns, both to Kupp (who tops 100 yards). Rams 27-14

Arizona (+7.5) at Seattle, o/u 44.5 – Sunday, 4:05 p.m. EDT

Whatever "us against the world, let's prove everyone wrong" mojo the Cardinals had to begin the year appears to have been used up. Since their upset win over the Cowboys, Jonathan Gannon's crew has lost three straight by an average score of about 32-15, and they really weren't even that close. Joshua Dobbs has committed five turnovers in his last two starts, and without James Conner in the backfield last week, the offense lost its one reliable contributor. Kyler Murray's practice window opened, though, putting him on track to be back under center by Week 10 at the latest, and there have been other small, encouraging signs like Trey McBride's solid performance against the Rams. This is still a team likely to be drafting in the top 5 in 2024, but considering it was all but handed the first overall pick by prognosticators before the season kicked off, that's a step up.

At 3-2, the Seahawks are the other team (along with the Rams) to have their ears perk up at news of the Niners' loss in Cleveland. An NFC West title remains unlikely for Seattle, especially considering their two games against San Francisco don't happen until November and December, so they won't get a chance to take advantage of their rival's current injury woes, but since their second-half collapse in Week 1 they've looked like a very sturdy wild-card squad. Geno Smith's erratic play is a bit of a concern — he's topped an 8.0 YPA in three starts while averaging 316.7 passing yards, but the other two games were ... woof. YPAs of 4.3 and 5.5, and a total of 222 passing yards between them. Kenneth Walker's scored six times in the last four games, though, providing the offense with a solid floor, while the defense has been sneaky-good, ranking top 10 in yards per play allowed and sacks, with the lowest yards per carry allowed in the league. Seattle can afford the occasional clunker from Geno if the rest of the team plays like that.

The Skinny

ARI injuries: RB Connor (IR, knee), S Jalen Thompson (questionable, hamstring)
SEA injuries: WR DK Metcalf (questionable, ribs), WR Tyler Lockett (questionable, hamstring)

ARI DFS targets: none
SEA DFS targets: Smith $6,000 DK / $7,000 FD (ARI 31st in passing DVOA, 30th in YPA allowed, t-24th in passing TDs allowed), Metcalf $6,800 DK / $7,700 FD (ARI 31st in DVOA vs. WR1, 32nd in DVOA vs. deep throws)

ARI DFS fades: Keontay Ingram $4,900 DK / $5,700 FD and Damien Williams $4,000 DK / $5,200 FD (SEA first in rushing DVOA, first in YPC allowed)
SEA DFS fades: none

Head-to-head record, last five years: 7-3 SEA, average score 25-22 SEA, average margin of victory nine points. SEA has won four of the last five meetings. 
Key stat: SEA is 30th in third-down conversions at 31.6 percent; ARI is 27th in third-down defense at 45.1 percent

Weather notes: overcast, temperature in the mid-50s, less than 10 mph wind, 20-35 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Williams leads the ARI backfield with 60 yards. Dobbs throws for 220 yards and a touchdown to McBride while also running in a score. Walker churns out 80 yards and a TD. Smith throws for 340 yards and three touchdowns, two to Lockett (who tops 100 yards) and one to Jake Bobo with Metcalf sidelined, but he also throws a pick-six to Kyzir White. Seahawks 28-21

Green Bay at Denver (+1), o/u 45 – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EDT

The Packers needed last week's bye. They'd lost consecutive games, getting outclassed by the Lions at Lambeau and then rolling snake eyes in Vegas as Jordan Love threw two fourth-quarter INTs in a four-point loss, and the increasingly dysfunctional offense could use a reset. The fact that Aaron Jones is still showing up on the injury report despite the week off isn't great, but the running game hasn't really been the issue. Love's simply been too inaccurate. Sure, the 6.9-point gap between his actual completion percentage and expected rate, at least per Next Gen Stats, is by far the highest of any regular QB — Anthony Richardson's the only one even close — but Love's 62.4 percent expected rate is still in the bottom 10 in the league. It's a perfect storm of a somewhat scattershot young quarterback, a young group of wideouts who haven't been the most reliable, and just plain bad luck.

Fortunately for Love, he now gets to face what might be the worst pass defense in the NFL. With Sean Payton becoming the team's whipping boy, I'm not sure everyone fully appreciates how far this secondary has fallen under DC Vance Joseph. It maybe shouldn't be a big surprise — Arizona was bad against the pass his first year there, too — but at least for me, I'm so used to the Broncos having an elite unit on the back end that it's hard to process how bad they've been in 2023, especially when they still have talents like Patrick Surtain on the roster. This is no longer a case of the Dolphins game skewing their numbers. Sam Howell and Justin Fields lit them up too. Considering the run defense is awful too, I'm not really sure what more Russell Wilson is supposed to be doing. Sure, he got shut down by Kansas City last week, but the Broncos averaged 26.3 points a game the four weeks before that. Even if he does build a lead in the first half, the defense is just going to blow it. Until things improve on the other side of the ball, the offense is just playing for personal numbers.

The Skinny

GB injuries: RB Jones (questionable, hamstring), LB De'Vondre Campbell (questionable, ankle), LB Quay Walker (questionable, knee)
DEN injuries: TE Greg Dulcich (doubtful, hamstring)

GB DFS targets: Love $5,800 DK / $7,800 FD (DEN 32nd in passing DVOA, 32nd in YPA allowed, 32nd in passing TDs allowed), Jones $6,800 DK / $7,700 FD (DEN 32nd in rushing yards per game allowed, 32nd in YPC allowed), Christian Watson $5,600 DK / $6,600 FD (DEN 31st in DVOA vs. deep throws), Romeo Doubs $4,900 DK / $6,200 FD (DEN 31st in DVOA vs. WR2), Jayden Reed $3,700 DK / $5,300 FD (DEN 31st in DVOA vs. WR3), Luke Musgrave $3,300 DK / $5,000 FD (DEN 31st in DVOA vs. TE)
DEN DFS targets: none

GB DFS fades: none
DEN DFS fades: Marvin Mims $3,600 DK / $4,900 FD (GB first in DVOA vs. WR3)

Key stat: DEN is 16th in third-down conversions at 39.4 percent; GB is seventh in third-down defense at 34.7 percent

Weather notes: clear, temperature in the mid-70s, 9-10 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Jones plays and gains 60 yards and a TD. Love throws for a career-high 330 yards and three scores, two to Watson (who tops 100 yards) and one to Musgrave. Javonte Williams leads the DEN backfield with 70 yards and a touchdown, while Jaleel McLaughlin catches a TD pass. Wilson throws for 230 yards and a second score to Courtland Sutton. Packers 34-24

L.A. Chargers (+5.5) at Kansas City, o/u 48
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EDT

Weird things can happen in the NFL over the course of a season, but a Chargers loss here seems like it will hand the AFC West to Kansas City before Halloween. The Bolts would be 2-4 and staring up at the 6-1 defending champs, and no offense to the team in Vegas that's currently clinging to a .500 record, but they ain't pulling it off. Brandon Staley's situation wouldn't be quite as dire if he'd won last week, but, well, yeah. OC Kellen Moore didn't exactly prove Dallas wrong for cutting him loose, and while the defense's late fade was unfortunate, the unit played pretty well until then. The team might just have too many injuries to turn things around. Austin Ekeler returned last week but couldn't get much going, while everyone from Justin Herbert to Joey Bosa to Derwin James is  less than 100 percent healthy — and that's before you factor in season-ending injuries to the likes of Mike Williams or the current absence of starting center Corey Linsley.

Since getting caught flat-footed by the Lions in their opener, Andy Reid's crew has taken care of business, reeling off five consecutive wins and finding a variety of ways to pick up victories. You can certainly make an argument that a truly elite team shouldn't be squeaking by the likes of the Vikings by a single score, or having trouble putting up points against a torchable Broncos defense, but those kinds of things tend to be forgotten by January. Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce have been fine, and Isiah Pacheco's been very solid, but until a receiver steps up and claims that No. 1 role, the offense could have ebbs and flows. A repatriated Mecole Hardman isn't the answer, either. The defense is buying the offense plenty of time to figure things out, though. Since that Week 1 loss to Detroit, they've allowed an average of 267.2 total yards per game, and on the season only the Browns have given up points on a lower percentage of the opposition's drives.

The Skinny

LAC injuries: EDGE Bosa (questionable, toe), S James (questionable, ankle)
KC injuries: no fantasy-relevant injuries

LAC DFS targets: none
KC DFS targets: Mahomes $8,300 DK / $ 9,200 FD (LAC 32nd in net passing yards per game allowed, 31st in YPA allowed)

LAC DFS fades: Keenan Allen $8,600 DK / $9,200 FD (KC second in DVOA vs. WR1)
KC DFS fades: none

Head-to-head record, last five years: 7-3 KC, average score 28-26 KC, average margin of victory seven points. Justin Herbert is 2-1 in his career at Arrowhead Stadium
Key stat: LAC are 19th in third-down conversions at 38.2 percent; KC is 10th in third-down defense at 36.0 percent

Weather notes: overcast, temperature in the mid-60s, 10-15 mph wind, 10-20 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Ekeler puts together 90 scrimmage yards and a score. Herbert throws for 320 yards and two TDs, finding Donald Parham and Joshua Palmer. Pacheco bangs out 70 yards and a touchdown. Mahomes throws for 360 yards and three scores, one each to Rashee Rice, Skyy Moore and Jerick McKinnon. Kansas City 34-27

SUNDAY NIGHT

Miami (+2.5) at Philadelphia, o/u 51.5 – Sunday, 8:20 p.m. EDT

The Dolphins continue to break my poor little score-generating algorithm; the raw number for this one, before adjustments, was 54.9 to 33.9. At 5-1, they've rocketed to the top of the AFC East, but their one loss is to the Bills, so the division is still very much up for grabs. None of the teams they've beaten have winning records, either – in fact, the Chargers are the only one with more than one win. Tua Tagovailoa is on pace for 40 passing TDs and the fourth-highest yardage total in history, and Tyreek Hill still has the first 2,000-yard campaign for a receiver firmly in his sights (he's actually on pace for over 2,300), but it's Miami's running game that's been doing the truly mind-boggling things. Raheem Mostert's career-high in TDs was eight, set in 2019 over 16 games for the Niners – he already has nine in 2023 with a 5.7 YPA, and his numbers pale in comparison to De'Von Achane's, who's averaged 12.1 yards a carry on his first 38 NFL totes. Those aren't even video game numbers, they're video game on easy mode numbers. On the other side of the field, the Dolphins' defense got ripped apart by Josh Allen and gave up 21 points and nearly 300 yards of offense to Bryce Young and a fairly toothless Panthers attack, so every week brings the potential for some historically absurd final score. The highest-scoring game in league history came back in 1966, a 72-41 win for Washington over the Giants, but the biggest points bonanza in recent history was a 58-48 Bengals victory over the Browns in 2004. There's only been four games ever with 100-plus points between both teams; I think the Dolphins can add to that total before the year is done.

The Eagles' loss last week to ruin their undefeated season wasn't quite as big a shock as what happened in Cleveland, but the way it happened might have been. Nick Sirianni's squad seems prone to occasional turnover-fests, though – Philly's only lost four regular-season games since the beginning of 2022, and in three of them the team committed four giveaways. It was only the second time in his career Jalen Hurts tossed three interceptions, and while his 7:7 TD:INT on the year might seem alarming, it does come with five rushing TDs. The defense hasn't quite gotten going yet, mainly due to the fact that the secondary can't get healthy, but the front seven has been its predicted brick wall against the run – only the Commanders have topped 100 rushing yards in a game against the Eagles, and only barely. Considering how the Dolphins have been zooming past everyone on the ground, that battle could end up being the one that decides the game.

The Skinny

MIA injuries: RB Achane (IR, knee), RB Jeff Wilson (IR-R, ribs)
PHI injuries: WR Quez Watkins (IR, hamstring), S Reed Blankenship (out, ribs)

MIA DFS targets: Durham Smythe $2,800 DK / $4,600 FD (PHI 32nd in DVOA vs. TE)
PHI DFS targets: D'Andre Swift $6,300 DK / $7,600 FD (MIA t-25th in rushing TDs allowed, 31st in passing DVOA vs. RB)

MIA DFS fades: Mostert $7,600 DK / $8,600 FD (PHI second in rushing DVOA, second in rushing yards per game allowed)
PHI DFS fades: none

Key stat: MIA is first in red-zone conversions at 80.8 percent (21-for-26), and t-1st in trips to the red zone; PHI is 25th in red-zone defense at 65.0 percent (13-for-20)

Weather notes: cloudy, temperature in the low 50s, 10-15 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Mostert gets held to 60 yards but still gets into the end zone. Tagovailoa throws for 360 yards and four TDs, two to Tyreek (who tops 100 yards) and one each to Smythe and Cedrick Wilson. Swift racks up 130 scrimmage yards and two scores, one rushing and one receiving. Hurts throws for 260 yards and a touchdown to A.J. Brown while also running one in himself. Dolphins 35-31

THURSDAY NIGHT

Jacksonville (+1.5) at New Orleans, o/u 40
Thursday, 8:15 p.m. EDT

The Jaguars took the lead in the AFC South last week by thumping the Colts at home, but they may have paid a steep price for it as Trevor Lawrence injured a knee late in the game. The short week does him no favors, of course, but the Jags seem reasonably confident he'll play, or at least seem to realize that Lawrence at, say, 85 percent health is still better than C.J. Beathard at 100 percent. Or maybe it's all a ploy to try and confuse the Saints' prep. (For the record, if Beathard starts, I have the score 20-16 Saints.) Regardless of who's under center, he'll hand it off to Travis Etienne a lot. The early season concerns about Tank Bigsby horning in on his action didn't pan out, and Etienne has scored two TDs in back-to-back games while piling up 267 scrimmage yards. New Orleans' run defense is generally on another level, but the unit has a bunch of key injuries of its own, and at all three levels. This game could ultimately be decided before kickoff, based on which team's stars are the healthiest.

That Saints' defense has now held five of six opponents to 20 points or less, and four of six to less than 300 yards of offense. You can quibble about the level of competition they've faced and can make a solid argument that the best QB they've had to deal with was C.J. Stroud last week, in his sixth NFL game, but that's still an impressive run. The problem is, the offense has also been held to 20 points or less in five of six games, leading to a 3-3 record. Derek Carr looked a lot better last week, throwing for 353 yards in Houston — his highest total since Week 12 of 2021 in Dallas, so maybe it's a Texas thing — but it did take him 50 attempts to get there, and if the AC joint sprain in his shoulder is still an issue, he could also be feeling it on a short week. Alvin Kamara topped 100 scrimmage yards against the Texans, and Jamaal Williams is closing in on his return from IR, so the team could soon have the backfield duo it envisioned to take the pressure off Carr. Soon probably won't be Thursday, though.

The Skinny

JAC injuries: QB Lawrence (questionable, knee), WR Zay Jones (questionable, knee)
NO injuries: RB Williams (IR-R, hamstring), WR Chris Olave (questionable, toe), TE Juwan Johnson (questionable, calf), EDGE Cameron Jordan (questionable, back), LB Demario Davis (questionable, knee), S Tyrann Mathieu (questionable, foot)

JAC DFS targets: Jaguars DST $3,300 DK / $4,300 FD (first in takeaways, NO t-24th in sacks allowed)
NO DFS targets: none

JAC DFS fades: Lawrence $6,300 DK / $7,500 FD (NO fifth in net passing yards per game allowed, fifth in YPA allowed) 
NO DFS fades: Kamara $6,900 DK / $7,700 FD (JAC sixth in rushing DVOA, third in rushing yards per game allowed)

Key stat: NO is 28th in red-zone conversions at 36.8 percent (7-for-19); JAC is 16th in red-zone defense at 52.4 percent (11-for-21)

The Scoop: Travis Etienne gains 70 yards and a touchdown. Lawrence plays and throws for 220 yards and two TDs, hitting Christian Kirk and Tim Jones. Kamara gets held to 60 combined yards. Carr throws for less than 200 yards and a score to Rashid Shaheed but gets picked off twice and sacked four times. A Tanoh Kpassagnon fumble recovery for a touchdown keeps it close. Jaguars 24-17

Last week's record: 9-6, 7-8 ATS, 8-7 o/u
2023 record: 53-40, 44-45-4 ATS, 54-38-1 o/u