This article is part of our NFL DFS Pick 'Em series.
Underdog NFL DFS Week 7 Picks
We're back for another week of picks, and by now you know the drill. We'll try to use matchups, pace of play and player usage as our primary factors for making selections.
RotoWire those tools and data to help you make selections of your own:
Fantasy points allowed vs. Position
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Higher
Saquon Barkley at NYG- higher than 18 rushing attempts
Narrative and logic collide on this pick as Barkley makes his return to the Meadowlands to take on the Giants. The Eagles are obviously well aware of this and are likely to use him as much as possible. There's plenty of data to back up this selection as well. Barkley has at least 18 carries in the three games in which at least one of A.J. Brown or DeVonta Smith has played this season – or put another way, when the offense has been efficient. The one risk is that the Giant' defense has been a pass funnel, but the Eagles' presumed intent to run the ball should be enough to overcome the track record we've seen so far this season.
Cade Otton vs. BAL – higher than 38.5 receiving yards
Mark Andrews at TB -higher than 27.5 receiving yards
This may not be a traditional game stack, but there is a lot of supporting data to push us in this direction. First is the overall projected pass volume in this game. Opponent's offenses rank first and second in pass rate over expectation against the Ravens (8.1%) and Bucs (6.0%). Even with Baltimore's preference to run their offense through the ground, they may not have a choice as they try to keep pace with what has been an effective Tampa Bay offense.
Then we can get to yards per target allowed by these defensive units. The Bucs have the second-highest mark at 9.77 while the Ravens rank third at 9.08. Neither Otton nor Andrews are the centerpiece of their offense, but these are relatively low numbers to top and the offensive environment in this game should benefit all pass catchers.
Drake Maye at JAC – higher than 194.5 passing yards
The New England offense played at such an incompetent level for the first five weeks of the season that it seems Maye's impact may be undersold. Admittedly much of his production came in garbage time against Houston, but Week 7 offers Maye the opportunity to match up against a much softer opponent. The Jags have allowed the fifth-highest yards per attempt to opposing quarterbacks this season (8.0) while having an abysmal pass rush.
Tank Dell at GB – higher than five receptions
This is another case where it feels like the prop number hasn't shifted enough based on new circumstances. For the season, Dell has a relatively disappointing 17.0 percent target share. In Week 6 – the first full contest without Nico Collins (knee) – that number jumped to 29 percent. He should keep that role in an intriguing matchup against the Packers.
Tee Higgins at CLE – higher than five receptions
Higgins' role has shifted in Cincinnati, going from more of a field-stretching option to a short-area target for Joe Burrow. His 9.2 aDOT illustrates that, as his previous career low was 10.9. That's slightly offset by a career-best 26.8 percent target per route run rate, which should lead us to focus on props related to target and reception volume rather than a yardage total. More specifically, Higgins as at least six targets in every game this season and at least six receptions in each of his last three contests.
Lower
Amon-Ra St. Brown at MIN – lower than 76.5 receiving yards
St. Brown's volume has largely been in line with last season, but his efficiency hasn't measured up to past expectations as key numbers such as yards per catch and yards per route run are either career lows or at their lowest point since his rookie season. That could change as the season progresses, but counting on that in a matchup against the stingy Vikings' defense is a significant risk as the unit has allowed the eighth-fewest yards per target for the season. The overall numbers cut in opposite directions. St. Brown has topped this mark only once this season. Despite their per target stinginess, the Vikings have allowed six receivers to record at least 77 receiving yards.
Will Levis at BUF – lower than 179.5 passing yards
Levis has made bone-headed decisions this season that have been well-publicized. Earlier in the season, he balanced those mistakes with some explosive plays, but his performance in Week 5 against the Colts was alarming as he averaged a season-low 3.5 yards per attempt. Now, he'll head into a difficult playing environment against a relatively strong pass defense. If he replicates his performance from last week, there's a decent chance h's benched in favor of Mason Rudolph partway through the game.
Deshaun Watson vs. CIN – lower than 213.5 passing + rushing yards
Watson has performed poorly since the first snap of the season and is averaging a disastrous 5.1 yards per attempt and he's reached this mark only once this season. The problems continue. The Browns traded away Amari Cooper, leaving Watson with a watered-down pass-catching corps. Watson had already seen his passing volume drop in the last two weeks (28 and 23 attempts), and to the extent Cleveland is motivated to win, the game plan will almost certainly revolve around their run game and defense.
