FanDuel NFL: Week 9 Breakdown

This article is part of our FanDuel Fantasy Football series.

After one week of 13 games on the main slate, we're back to a limited number of games. We have the traditional Thursday, Sunday and Monday games, with the addition of four teams on bye as well as the game in Germany on Sunday morning. That said, we're all playing on an even field, so we have to make the best of what's available. 

The Games

A lot of the focus of DFS picks is on individual players. Skills certainly matter, but finding game environments that are likely to promote a lot of points scored is a way to narrow the focus of our player pool.

• Using the game totals and implied team totals, Dallas and Philadelphia stand above the rest in terms of game environment. Seattle and Baltimore as well as Indianapolis and Carolina also stand out.
• The best team totals include Baltimore, New Orleans, Philadelphia and Cleveland.

Value Options

This section will highlight players that project well on a point-per-dollar basis. DFS analysis will often focus on getting 3X return on a player's salary, or another similar mark. This is only a part of the analysis but can help identify potential salary savers or building blocks for lineups.

Chuba Hubbard vs. Indianapolis ($6,500)

Coach Frank Reich confirmed that Hubbard will remain the starting running back over Miles Sanders. What is less clear is how the work will be divided, which presents some risk to rostering Hubbard. However, everything else lines up perfectly. The Colts have allowed three running backs to reach 20 points and an average of 30.2 total points in the last three weeks and 29.2 in the last five weeks. Now, they're likely without Zaire Franklin (knee) while run-stuffer Grover Stewart suspended. If the volume falls into place, Hubbard will be in for a strong performance.

Brandin Cooks at Philadelphia ($5,600)

The case for Cooks is slightly more difficult because his slow uptick in production has come exclusively on touchdowns. Put another way, he's topped four targets only once and his season-high yardage total is only 49 yards. The good news comes with the matchup. The Eagles have allowed the most fantasy points per game to wide receiver. They've also been susceptible to secondary options in opposing offenses, allowing 14.7 points to Jordan Addison, 14.7 points to Curtis Samuel, 16.6 points to Puka Nacua with Cooper Kupp back and 20.8 points to Jahan Dotson. CeeDee Lamb is obviously the top option, but the Dallas offense likely will be pushed by game script, creating opportunity for multiple options among the team's skill-position players.

Other Value Options

QB Derek Carr vs. CHI ($7,100)
QB C.J. Stroud vs. TB ($7,000)
QB Baker Mayfield at HOU ($6,800)
QB Mac Jones vs. WAS ($6,600)
RB Darrell Henderson at GB ($6,100)
RB Devin Singletary vs. TB ($5,300)
WR Zay Flowers vs. SEA ($6,100)
WR Christian Watson vs. LAR ($6,000)
WR JuJu Smith-Schuster vs. WAS ($5,200)
WR Jonathan Mingo vs. IND ($5,100)
TE David Njoku vs. ARI ($5,500)
TE Jake Ferguson at PHI ($5,100)

Stacks to Consider

Seattle at Baltimore

These teams are inside the top 10 in pass rate over expectation as well as pace of play in neutral game script. What they may lack in in efficiency, they make up for in volume, thus the high game total and inclusion in this section. The Baltimore offense is interesting to break down and perhaps not in line with perception. Zay Flowers ($6,100) leads the team in targets per route run while averaging a mediocre 1.6 yards per route run. Mark Andrews ($7,500) is the most expensive tight end on the main slate and is the best target in a Baltimore stack as he's more efficient on his targets (1.86 yards per route run) and has only a slightly lower target per route run rate than Flowers. Odell Beckham ($5,200) has had the volume but has been extremely inefficient. The case for him is that game script creates more opportunity than most weeks.

DK Metcalf ($7,200) is the most expensive wide receiver in this game and the numbers say that's deserved. He has a 26.9 percent target-per-route-run rate with 2.36 yards per route run, both of which are well above any option in the Baltimore offense. Tyler Lockett ($6,900) is less intriguing based on his peripherals has averaged nearly exactly the same FanDuel points per game this season. The good news about Seattle's offense is that it's highly concentrated, as this duo are the only viable pass catchers on a weekly basis.

Keeping that in mind, the best way to play Baltimore could simply be to roster Lamar Jackson ($8,600). He's expensive, but has a great chance to post the best score at the position. Contrarily, I have little interest in Geno Smith ($6,600), with the focus instead being on the elite pass catchers.

Indianapolis at Carolina

This is an under-the-radar game, one where fading both quarterbacks is the path. Those who use this as a key part of their lineup will be pushed into an unconventional build, which is another benefit.

The Colts have a talented skill-position group, highlighted by Jonathan Taylor ($8,000) and Zack Moss ($6,700). Taylor slipped back into strange usage in Week 8 basically disappearing in the second while nearly exactly evenly splitting work with Moss. That likely will scare off a lot of potential roster rate, but betting on Taylor with suppressed roster rate. Unfortunately, his price isn't similarly depressed. Moss has the perception of being more stable, but he had his ceiling complete cut off by Taylor. I'd be willing to take the risk on Taylor, understanding there's a strong chance he fails but that the chances of him going off at a low roster rate come every week. That's particularly true in this matchup against a Carolina defense that has allowed the second-most fantasy points per game to running backs.

Michael Pittman ($7,300) and Josh Downs ($6,400) (knee) are underrated options and have a relatively consistent floor. Assuming Downs is cleared and presumably at full strength, take the value and roster him.

The Carolina side is more straightforward. We've already made the case for Hubbard and no case has to be made for Adam Thielen ($8,300). Thielen has topped 20 FD points in three of seven games and has an additional performance of 16.9 FD points. It takes a significant leap of faith, but Jonathan Mingo ($5,100) is an acceptable punt play and could out-produce his price if Bryce Young ($6,900) can take a step forward, Mingo is the likeliest beneficiary.

Dallas at Philadelphia  

As the game with the highest-implied total of the slate and big names in play for both teams this will be popular. Both Jalen Hurts ($9,000) and A.J. Brown ($9,000) have the potential to be the highest scorers at their position, but they'll need to deliver on that potential as they are both the highest-priced players at their respective positions. DeVonta Smith ($7,000) and Dallas Goedert ($5,800) are peripheral options in the offense but provide exposure to the game environment.

We've discussed the case for the Dallas side above. Overall, this is an obviously attractive game and will certainly draw the attention of the field. It's priced in such a way that the stars will have to hit to pay off.

High-Priced Hero

Before we jump into the pick, the general state of the slate is worth discussing. Last week, the theme was to seek out individual players in a good spot. Given the byes, early matchup in Germany and great Sunday night matchup, that's not the path to follow this week. The path to upside is through stacks and finding the right game environment. With that in mind, we have only selection for our high-priced hero.

Saquon Barkley at Las Vegas ($8,600)

Barkley has hinted that his ankle injury will affect him throughout the rest of the season, but his performances certainly don't reflect that. Since returning three weeks ago, he's had 81 carries and 10 receptions. The overall state of the Giants' offense has held back his scoring, but the return of Daniel Jones hopefully will change the outlook in a positive way. This could one of the rare instances where the Giants play from ahead, and Barkley will have the benefit of another elite matchup against a Raiders' defense that has allowed running backs an average of 25.3 points the last five weeks.

Smash Spot

(Players in favorable spots to significantly outperform their salary.)

Demario Douglas vs. WSH ($5,400)

Douglas has gotten considerable hype in season-long leagues and was among the top waiver-wire adds for Week 9. Kendrick Bourne (knee) is lost for the season, and DeVante Parker (concussion) has been ruled out. On Friday, Tyquan Thornton (foot) was added to the injury report. The Patriots seemingly have no choice but to play and target Douglas, and this is yet another elite matchup.