East Coast Offense: What Actually Matters

This article is part of our East Coast Offense series.

What Actually Matters

The more football I watch, the more I think games come down to which team can get to the quarterback, and which cannot. That's not to say quarterbacks don't matter -- there are a few transcendent ones and also a few terrible ones -- but for most, give them time to throw, and they'll look like superstars. Get some heat on them, and they'll look like Andy Dalton on the Cowboys.  

Baker Mayfield, who has struggled badly the last year and a half, is a good example. The Browns drew the Bengals, and after a slow start, Mayfield might as well have been peak Drew Brees, connecting on 22 of 23, his only incompletion being on a spike to stop the clock. Has Mayfield turned a corner suddenly? It's possible the strong outing will give him confidence, and not having Odell Beckham to lock onto will coax him into going through his progressions and hitting the open man. But more likely, the next team that puts heat on Mayfield will again expose him for the average quarterback he probably is. 

The importance of protecting the quarterback for the offense almost cannot be overstated, and conversely the importance of getting to the quarterback for the defense. Because underneath all the sophistry behind "running backs don't matter" and other catchy oversimplifications is a truth: in the end, the only thing that matters is the quality of the units as cohesive wholes. The running game matters, and the passing game matters even more, but the path to achieving a successful running or passing game does not. Give an average running back huge holes, and his success rate and production will match those of all-time greats. Give a good back a bad line, and he'll have average production if he's lucky. The individuals and the names on their jerseys, except in the rarest of exceptions, do not matter in and of themselves. It is the performance of the unit of which they are a part, and it is only our habit of analyzing those units by component parts that give rise to falsely-premised questions whether position x or y matters. 

Of course, we must break the units of production (running vs passing games) down into component parts not only because fantasy football requires it but also because player salaries and signings are handled individually and not unit-wide. One could imagine an offensive line/running back/tight end LLC negotiating with teams as a unit, but, for better or worse, that's not how it's done. I bring this somewhat obvious point up because I think our orientation as fantasy players can often obscure the larger and more impactful truth in evaluating players and teams. 

Moreover, when we analyze teams based on individual players, there's a key component lost, and that's cohesion. We've all heard the phrase said about great teams, "The whole is greater than the sum of the parts," and grasp the notion of "team chemistry." That something cannot easily be measured does not mean it doesn't exist. We suffer from the streetlight effect, looking for impact only where we can isolate and measure it. And if the total is indeed greater than the sum of the parts, we tend to fudge and ascribe extra value to each part until it matches, or we can (often validly) credit the coaches for the unexpected surplus yield. But complex systems commonly contain emergent properties that cannot be explained or expected solely from their components. It's not only plausible but likely that individual pieces impact the whole in unpredictable and nonlinear way and far from clear which Jenga piece will bring down the tower when removed. 

Bottom line, as fantasy players and fans of NFL players, we're accustomed to seeing the truth about the game in terms of individuals, but that's not only sub-optimal for our understanding (and predictive capabilities) but also omitting a key factor that's captured when we evaluate the relevant units as wholes. 

Week 8 Sporcle Quiz

Apropos of Justin Herbert and Joe Burrow having huge games in Week 7, can you name all the quarterbacks (minimum five games) to average more than 230 passing yards per game in their rookie seasons?

Guessing The Lines

The Cowboys-Eagles line can't be right, and I expect it'll correct by tomorrow. I even saw one 7.5, which is closer to being in line, but I'd still love the Eagles at that price. The Bucs are laying 10.5 on the road, which is a huge number, so I'll be on the Giants. I also like the Dolphins getting four at home against the Rams, even with Tua Tagovailoa making his debut, the Ravens laying 3.5 and the Browns home against the Raiders. Of course, I reserve the right to change my mind tomorrow in Beating the Book. 

Week 7 Observations

• The Seahawks often have weird games, but that was one of the weirdest of all time. Why were the Cardinals running the ball so much down 10 with less than four minutes left in the game?
• Zane Gonzalez got iced by his own coach, made a game-winning FG that didn't count, missed the one that did, then miraculously got the chance to hit the game winner after Metcalf's TD was called back and Russell Wilson threw his third pick.
• Kyler Murray (360 pass yards, 3 TD, 67 rush yards, 1 TD) is having one of the greatest fantasy QB seasons of all time with an offense that almost never has a consistent rhythm.
• DeAndre Hopkins (12-10-103-1) catches everything and does not need to be especially open. Chase Edmonds (5-58-0, 7-7-87) is obviously better than Kenyan Drake both as a runner and receiver, and now Drake is out with an ankle injury.
• The picks notwithstanding, Wilson's (388 pass yards, three TDs, 84 rush yards) fantasy season continues to be of the all-time variety.
• Tyler Lockett (20-15-200-3) had one of the biggest fantasy performances in the last 10 years. It appeared Patrick Peterson was mostly on Metcalf, though I thought I saw Lockett beat Peterson on his 47-yard TD.
• Chris Carson sprained his foot, so Carlos Hyde (15-68-1, 4-3-8) had a chance to be relevant, but he's nursing a bad hamstring. I'm not sure if/when Rashaad Penny will be back, but don't forget about him. For now, Travis Homer (knee) and DeeJay Dallas could see more work.
• Daylight savings in Portugal was this past weekend, one week earlier than in the US, so I didn't realize the games started at 5 PM instead of six until 20 minutes before kickoff. Not that it made any difference.
• Prior to the games, NFL.com's Ian Rapoport, as usual citing unnamed sources, said Gardner Minshew might be benched for Mike Glennon. As a result, I briefly put Andy Dalton in my lineup before switching back to Minshew because (1) Rapoport routinely runs with rumors that don't pan out; (2) the unnamed sources didn't say it was definite; and (3) I had a terrible vibe about Dalton's match-up. It was nice to be right about one thing at least, and I shudder to think about the super volcano of invective I'd have unleashed via Twitter and Monday's SXM show had I fallen for that half-baked rumor.
• It's hilarious you get a penalty if you even touch a punter on a clean punt, but if you block it you can smash the dude.
• I say this every week, but Justin Herbert (347 yards, 3 TD) is a beast. He also showed off some of his 4.68 40 speed (faster than Josh Allen) with 66 rushing yards and another TD. It's amazing the Chargers would have squandered his rookie year had Tyrod Taylor not been stabbed by the team doctor.
• Keenan Allen (13-12-125) was everywhere. I say this as someone desperately clinging to the Jaguars plus eight and needing them to make a third-down stop. They couldn't keep Allen from extending the drives.
• I like Cam Newton, and Jarrett Stidham isn't the answer, but Newton was rightly benched as his performance was positively Hoyeresque. While Bill Belichick is a wizard at in-season adjustments, this team might be his toughest project yet.
• The Niners are such a bizarre team. They got annihilated at home by the Dolphins, then handled the Rams and crushed the Patriots in Foxborough. All their running backs except Jerick McKinnon, who barely played, look great in that system. Wilson (high-ankle sprain) looks like he's out for a while, so fourth stringer JaMycal Hasty (9-57-0, 1-1-16) could be the starter. (Editor's Note: I just discovered it was a rest day for McKinnon who of course I had in a lineup. Had I known that ahead of time, not only would I not have started McKinnon, but I would have started Wilson over Latavius Murray.)
• I have Deebo Samuel in two leagues, including a the high-stakes NFFC Primetime, waited five weeks to use him, and now it looks like he'll miss time with a hamstring injury. Brandon Aiyuk (7-6-115) could be busy, though.
• Scott Hanson's unhinged glee was especially intolerable this week.
• Melvin Gordon (17-68-1) lost two fumbles, though looking at his stat line just reminded me of the botched flea-flicker that counted as one of them. Gordon should see a decent share of the workload with Phillip Lindsay concussed, at least until he gets suspended for his mid-week DUI.
• Le'Veon Bell instantly looked five years younger in a Chiefs uniform, but the game-flow from that contest was so screwed up, it's hard to read much into his usage.
• As I mentioned I liked Rob Gronkowski before the year because he's only 31, healthy, reunited with Tom Brady and the greatest ever to play his position. He's what George Kittle would be if Kittle keeps it up for several more years. Gronk has to be a top-seven TE at this point.
• Chris Godwin (9-9-88-1) looks healthy again, and he'll be a staple in the offense, even when Antonio Brown arrives. It's going to be insane with those two, Gronk, Mike Evans (2-2-37-0) and even Miller who runs a 4.39 and rookie Tyler Johnson, who caught a TD and looks like a player. Tom Brady (369 yards, four TDs, one rush TD) should put up big numbers and has a real chance at a seventh ring.
• The Bucs defense is impossible to run on. Nelson Agholor (9-5-107-1) is the Raiders No. 1 receiver apparently.
• I don't want to overrate a bounce-back against an abominable Texans defense, but it looks like last week's game against the Bucs was the outlier, not the first four four games, for Aaron Rodgers (283 yards, four TDs, no picks.)
• Davante Adams (16-13-196-2) appears to be over his hamstring injury.
• The Texans have a great QB, but are otherwise incoherent. Maybe Duke Johnson (5-5-43) will get more involved.
• The Cowboys defense is historically bad, but without Dak Prescott, their offense is also bottom five. You have to be concerned about all the key options including Ezekiel Elliott. Oh, that reminds me, I started CeeDee Lamb in three leagues.
• Last week, J.D. McKissic (who I picked up and started in two leagues) looked better than Antonio Gibson (20-128-1), but not against Dallas. Of course, Peyton Barber (10 carries) got the extra garbage-time work, not McKissic.
• Congrats to the New York Jets – unlike the Cowboys, they finally covered a spread.
• Tyler Bass missed two field goals, but you were still happy you picked him up.
• Drew Brees played well without his top two receivers, converting 12 of 14 third downs.
• Like the Bucs, the Saints are a tough team to run against.
• Teddy Bridgewater looked like a slightly more mobile Brees to me, with 9.1 YPA, two TDs and no picks despite facing a fair amount of pressure and no running game on which to rely. He passed the eye test.
• Joey Slye attempted a would-be record-setting 65-yard FG attempt and was dead center, but short by only a yard or two.
• The Titans will be a tough out in the playoffs again this year. They play hard and physical are well coached and don't stop coming at you. The Steelers were lucky to hold on.
• A.J. Brown (8-6-153-1) is so thick he doesn't look fast, but somehow he routinely takes slants to the house, outrunning the entire defense.
• Diontae Johnson (15-9-80-2) looks like a poor man's Antonio Brown so long as he can stay in the game. He hurt his ankle late, but apparently it isn't serious. JuJu Smith-Schuster (14-9-85-0) also had a busy day, but as usual it was mostly short stuff. Chase Claypool (1-1–2) wasn't a factor. Ben Roethlisberger has yet to find his fastball.
• Rookie Harrison Bryant (5-4-56-2) looks like a player. Austin Hooper should be back in a couple weeks, but Bryant could further establish himself next week before the bye. David Njoku (3-20-1) is also around, and Rashard Higgins (6-6-110-0) made plays, but Beckham's absence will continue to create opportunities for somebody, especially if Mayfield benefits from spreading the ball around more.
• Joe Burrow (406 pass yards, 3 TDs, 34 rush yards, 1 rush TD) had a monster game despite taking pressure behind a bad offensive line. A.J. Green (13-7-82) got a lot of action, but Tee Higgins (5-5-71-1) and Tyler Boyd (13-11-101-1) were far more efficient.
• I was aghast when the Bengals (whom I had plus 3.5) gave up the game-winning TD to go down three with the PAT pending. But miracle of miracles, Cody Parkey shanked the PAT, and I got the cover anyway.
• The Falcons-Lions, a game with a 56.5 total should have ended 17-16 Falcons, assuming Younghoe makes the FG. Of course, Todd Gurley changed the course of history, stumbling into the end zone, and sending me (Lions +2.5) into a rage. But in a second miracle in a five-minute span, Matthew Stafford drove down the field and found T.J. Hockenson for the last-second game winner, punishing Gurley for the offense against the ATS Gods. That was the last good thing that happened.
• Darrell Henderson went 14-64-0 and 2-2-13 as a receiver. Malcolm Brown (10-57-1) saw roughly as much work and got the goal line carry. Henderson is quicker, more explosive and more of a slasher. Brown is a power runner, and he looked good moving the pile and breaking tackles. Cam Akers had one carry that was negated due to a penalty.
• Jared Goff didn't do much, and he spread the ball around enough that neither did his receivers – and that was with Tyler Higbee missing the game due to a hand injury.
• Granted the Bears defense is good, but the Rams offense is unlikely to generate a player that should have been taken in the top three rounds. Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods look like fourth-round pars at best.
• Johnny Hekker sure is a good punter.
• The Bears offense is a complete wasteland, and their only useful player, Allen Robinson, (4-4-70) got banged up late in the game.
• David Montgomery (14-48-0, 5-5-21) got his typical workload, and his longest play was for 11 yards. He breaks some tackles, but he's not quick enough to avoid them in the first place.
• It's amazing the Bears are 5-2, and there's a credible case to be made for bringing back Mitchell Trubisky.