This article is part of our East Coast Offense series.
The Team I Wish I Had Drafted
Now that my NFFC teams are drawing dead, I'd like to focus on what might have been. If I only knew on draft day what I know now, here's the team I would have assembled:
Round 1: Travis Kelce
Even at 1.1, I'm going with a TE this year. Go ahead and mock me Christian McCaffrey and Saquon Barkley drafters, just because you can't think outside the box. In fact, I'll side bet you right now. Name your price.
Round 2: DK Metcalf
A no-brainer at the 1/2 turn. This guy is stronger than Terrell Owens and faster than Randy Moss? His quarterback is Russell Wilson? Oh, the Chris Godwin team wants some action? Done.
Round 3: Todd Gurley
So what if he's washed up? He's a touchdown machine, and I can just cut him after Week 9. The James Conner owner wants action? Book it.
Round 4: Keenan Allen
You're acting like losing Philip Rivers is a bad thing. I don't trust the Chargers' medical staff one bit with Tyrod Taylor, and if Justin Herbert ever gets a shot, look out.
Round 5: Stefon Diggs
You think going to Buffalo is a downgrade? LOL, stop living in the past, dude. The A.J. Green owner wants a sidebet? No, I have to refuse, it's just stealing at this point.
Round 6: David Montgomery
Am I aware he suffered a groin injury in camp? Are you aware the season is 17 weeks long, and your fantasy playoffs are what matter most? And didn't you just draft Mark Ingram in the fourth?
Round 7: Josh Allen
How do you let a dual threat fall this far? Love pairing him with Stefon Diggs, and I'll let you in on a sleeper I'm targeting later: Cole Beasley. Have to stack that Buffalo passing game.
Round 8: Tony Pollard
I love his Week 15 matchup, and you have to think Zeke Elliott will be worn down by then.
Round 9: Younghoe Koo
A real team needs a Younghoe! Wait, that was a joke. No, I meant to take Justin Tucker. What? You can't roll it back? Okay fine, whatever, but that's crap. Oh, now you want to give me odds to up the side bet? Fine, as much as you'd like.
Round 10: Aaron Rodgers
Dumb experts arguing Rodgers has no upside. He has more upside than Matt Ryan who you took two rounds earlier!
Round 11: Justin Jefferson
Hilarious you drafted Henry Ruggs ahead of Jefferson. Who else can catch passes in Minnesota besides old man Adam Thielen?
Round 12: Brandon Aiyuk
He'll get a ton of work if George Kittle and Deebo Samuel both get hurt.
Round 13: James Robinson
The Jaguars might be bad, but I don't expect Devine (Ozigbo) intervention, and I like Robinson's chances if Leonard Fournette is released.
Round 14: Mike Davis
Christian McCaffrey's indestructible, but you never know.
Round 15: Wayne Gallman
Hey look, I've got backs on the Panthers and Giants for cheap, while you used the first two overall picks on them!
Round 16: Logan Thomas
Someone has to catch passes in Washington besides Terry McLaurin. Love your Steven Sims pick, dude, but I prefer someone who weighs more than 120 pounds.
Round 17: Robert Tonyan
I didn't need a third tight end, but when you reached for Jace Sternberger, the troll inside me forced my hand.
Round 18: Football Team Defense
I don't care about defense this year, they're all roughly the same.
Round 19: Dolphins Defense
Figure they'll block a few punts this year.
Round 20: Justin Herbert
Probably just a stab in the dark at this point, but did I mention I really don't trust the Chargers medical staff?
This obviously isn't the best possible team I could have drafted, but I'm positive it would have made the playoffs and crushed in the semifinals. And the side bet revenue would probably exceed whatever the league prize is.
Week 16 Sporcle Quiz
Apropos of Stefon Diggs having 111 catches through 14 games, can you name all the players to have more than one 100-catch season in their careers? (Be forewarned: wrong answers end the quiz!)
Guessing The Lines
Game | My Line | Guessed Line | Actual Line | ML-AL | O/U | Actual O/U | MO-AO |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Vikings at Saints | 7.5 | 7 | 7 | 0.5 | 46 | 52 | -6 |
Buccaneers at Lions | -3 | -4 | -8.5 | 5.5 | 53 | 54 | -1 |
49ers at Cardinals | 6.5 | 6.5 | 4.5 | 2 | 47 | 49 | -2 |
Dolphins at Raiders | -2.5 | -2.5 | -2.5 | 0 | 44 | 47.5 | -3.5 |
Panthers at Football Team | 1.5 | 2 | 2.5 | -1 | 43 | 44.5 | -1.5 |
Colts at Steelers | 2 | 3 | -2.5 | 4.5 | 45 | 46 | -1 |
Falcons at Chiefs | 10 | 10 | 10.5 | -0.5 | 53 | 53.5 | -0.5 |
Bears at Jaguars | -4.5 | -6 | -7.5 | 3 | 45 | 46.5 | -1.5 |
Bengals at Texans | 6 | 4.5 | 9 | -3 | 49 | 45 | 4 |
Giants at Ravens | 10.5 | 13.5 | 11.5 | -1 | 45 | 45 | 0 |
Browns at Jets | -6.5 | -7 | -9.5 | 3 | 44 | 46.5 | -2.5 |
Broncos at Chargers | 1.5 | 1.5 | 3 | -1.5 | 48 | 48.5 | -0.5 |
Eagles at Cowboys | -3.5 | 0 | -1.5 | -2 | 47 | 49 | -2 |
Rams at Seahawks | 0 | 2.5 | 2 | -2 | 46 | 47.5 | -1.5 |
Titans at Packers | 2 | 3.5 | 3.5 | -1.5 | 57 | 56 | 1 |
Bills at Patriots | -4 | -6.5 | -7 | 3 | 44 | 45 | -1 |
I was so far off on Bucs-Lions I checked to see if there were news I'd missed that Matthew Stafford had already been ruled out. (He hasn't as yet.) I get why the Colts are laying wood in Pittsburgh, but as bad as the Steelers looked, I'll give them one more chance. I wanted to fade the Jets off their win, but the book isn't giving it any respect, so I guess I'm on them. And while I won't take the Bills lightly again, and I think they'll want to stick it to the Patriots and Bill Belichick, I'd be surprised if it were easy on that field.
Week 15 Observations
- What more can be said about Josh Allen? He torched the Broncos for 359 yards, two pass TDs, took only one sack, didn't throw a pick and rushed for 33 yards and two TDs. He reminds me of peak Brett Favre, only with more mobility. And it was laughable how easily the Bills scored even after giving up 25 yards of penalties to make it goal-to-go from the 30. One of those penalties actually negated a slick, behind-the-back, trick hand off to Devin Singletary that went for a would-be score too.
- Both Bills backs were effective, though 51 of Singletary's 68 yards and his TD that counted were on a garbage time run-out-the-clock play he took to the house. That's rare in today's fantasy football, but I remember when it was normal for Terrell Davis or Emmitt Smith to take a 25-120-1 outing and turn into 26-160-2 against a tired defense.
- Stefon Diggs (13-11-147-0) and Cole Beasley (10-8-112) had their way with the Broncos defense all day. Had the game been closer, Diggs might have caught 20 passes.
- Melvin Gordon (11-61-2, 4-4-20) has always been a good fantasy back. He's not a star in real life, but he has a nose for the end zone, and his teams always give him the key carries. Noah Fant (11-8-68-1) was far and away the Broncos' top target.
- The Bills dominated the Broncos in every phase, and but for an Andre Roberts muffed punt, it would have been even more of a blowout. But it would have been nice to get a heads up that the Broncos were using a random guy off the street at kicker who made Dan Bailey look like Jan Stenerud.
- The Bills are the second best team in the AFC and maybe the entire NFL.
- The Packers started the game up 21-3 on three straight TD drives, then scored only a field goal the rest of the game.
- Aaron Rodgers was sharp early, but the Panthers pressure (five sacks) got to him, and the Packers didn't adjust.
- Aaron Jones (20-145-1, 4-3-13) was the only Packer who delivered, and almost all of it was in the first half.
- Davante Adams (10-7-42) appeared (not sure how it'll be credited) to have his first drop of the year and looked sluggish.
- The Packers had three sacks, but otherwise gave Teddy Bridgewater a lot of time to throw.
- DJ Moore (8-6-131) is apparently 100 percent healthy again.
- Matt Ruhle made an interesting strategic decision to kick the field goal, down 11, on 1st-and-10 from the Packers 15 with 2:04 and one timeout left. Carolina needed two scores, and kicking the field goal there enabled them to kick the ball deep to the Packers, using the two-minute warning, their final timeout and 40 seconds of clock to get the ball back, down eight, with 55 seconds left. Had Ruhle taken a shot at the end zone, the two-minute warning would have happened on offense, and even if the Panthers scored a TD, they'd have had to rely on a successful onside kick. Given how hard it is to recover an onside kick these days, I actually think the math works out in Ruhle's favor, and they did what they had to on defense to give their offense one last chance. But I'm open to being corrected if there's something I'm missing.
- I watched the 40-minute version of the Giants game, and even that was boring. Darius Slayton and Sterling Shepard are good players, Andrew Thomas played well against Myles Garrett until a late sack and the defense held up decently without star corner James Bradberry. But Evan Engram (another pass off his hands), and the rest of the team is a tear down. What's worse is Daniel Jones' injury prevents him from getting a necessary make-or-break audition, so the team can make an easy decision for 2021.
- I didn't watch as much of the Saints-Chiefs as I thought I would because I was so roped into Eagles-Cardinals. Drew Brees looked terrible early and sharp late. You rarely see him complete only 15 of 34 passes.
- Like Brees, Alvin Kamara (11-54-0, 6-3-40-1) started slowly, had a drop, but eventually got his.
- Clyde Edwards-Helaire ran well before getting hurt, but was splitting carries with Le'Veon Bell. One problem for both backs is Patrick Mahomes doesn't especially like to check down.
- Jalen Hurts went for 338 yards and three passing TDs, while going 11-63-1 on the ground. Despite a fierce pass rush – he took six sacks – and playing from behind he didn't turn the ball over, either. And that doesn't count four defensive PIs generated by his throws. The closest comp I can think of is Deshaun Watson.
- I made the Eagles +6.5 my best bet though, so it was a little disappointing they lost by seven, thanks to the punter (and holder) being out and his replacement (Zach Ertz) not being able to handle an errant snap on a PAT.
- The Rams were 17-point home favorites, with implied odds of 93.75 percent. But you wouldn't get on an airplane with a 6.25 percent chance of crashing. The crazy thing is not that the 6.25 percent came in, but that it came in when winning had such a steep cost to the Jets. I'm not much of a college football guy, but one way to measure the difference in the value of pick 1.1 compared to pick 1.2 this year is by considering what it would cost for the Jets to trade back up. Probably 1.2, a third rounder and 2022 first rounder? If that's ballpark, the Jets essentially squandered those two picks by winning. As much as I love to mock the Jets, though, it can be argued winning a game (or more aptly risking a win by not overtly tanking on the field) might have positive second-order effects that outweigh any reward for purposely losing. Or put differently, maybe trying to lose on the field is a line a franchise interested in long-term health shouldn't cross.
- It feels like a bad beat when Justin Tucker misses from under 60.
- Say what you want about Dwayne Haskins, but the Football Team did cover. Say what you want about Dave Gettleman, but he had the wisdom to reach for Danny Dimes rather than go with the consensus best remaining QB on the board in Haskins.
- Russell Wilson did almost nothing against the Football Team pass defense.
- David Montgomery (36-146-2, 2-1-15) was one of the more unlikely players to deliver people fantasy titles. After having zero 100-yard rushing games and two total TDs through Week 11, he's had six TDs and three 100-yard games in his last four.
- After the worst kicking performance in NFL history, Dan Bailey made all five of his kicks (two FGs and three PATs.)
- The Patriots found out you can't out-ugly the Dolphins.
- Cam Newton wasn't the guy to carry a terrible offense on his back, it turns out. Among the available veteran QBs last offseason, no one has done much including Newton, Andy Dalton, Nick Foles and Jameis Winston.) In fact, based on his one game Thursday night, I'd say Marcus Mariota has been the best of the bunch.
- The Texans lost twice to the Colts in three weeks on fumbles in the closing minutes at the two-yard line. Deshaun Watson is closer to the Mahomes-Wilson tier than the one below it.
- Through 14 games, Ryan Tannehill has 31 TD passes, five interceptions, 8.1 YPA and four rushing TDs, despite missing his left tackle the last five weeks. And he did it last year too. Tannehill's a top-10 real-life NFL QB.
- Nick Mullens is a turnover machine.
- I drafted Tony Pollard (12-69-2, 9-6-63) in three leagues, but dropped him everywhere once Dak Prescott got hurt, and the offense was terrible. He probably sent quite a few people to the finals.
- The difference between Matt Ryan blowing a huge lead to Tom Brady Sunday as opposed to in the 2017 Super Bowl is the Falcons (+6) covered. (I actually had a scare when the Bucs failed to convert a 3rd-and-short with less than a minute left, potentially setting up a spread-covering field goal, but the refs – and the review booth for God knows what reason – ruled it a first down even though the replays showed it was clearly short. The Bucs then were able to run out the clock rather than kicking to make the margin seven rather than four. Of course, it was close enough that the Bucs might have gone for it on fourth down anyway, but I'm glad we didn't have to find out.)
- Ben Roethlisberger was bad. He threw only one pick, but could have had three or four, none easier than the fourth quarter one dropped by William Jackson. His passes lacked zip, and his timing and decision-making were also off.
- Benny Snell (18-84-1) ran hard, but was stuffed on key third downs. He looks like just a guy to me.
- Diontae Johnson (13-8-59-1) had a decent game without egregious drops, but aside from the 23-yard TD, it was all dink and dunk again.
- Ryan Finley threw for only 89 yards, but ran for 47 (and a TD) and didn't turn it over. He managed the game just fine given the Steelers offensive woes. Having a mobile QB is a huge advantage on third and short too.
- Gio Bernard (25-83-1, 1-1-14-1) apparently learned his lesson after being benched for fumbling for the first time since 2013 last week.