East Coast Offense: Keeping It Real

This article is part of our East Coast Offense series.

Keeping It Real

One thing we've tried to do as parents is keep our eight-year old daughter off wifi-connected devices as much as practicable, but during the lockdown this spring, her school assigned much of her work via zoom, and she got used to doing math and Portuguese on the IPad. For much of the summer, she retained the habit, asking for half an hour here or there when we were bored or sitting around the house, and we caved. 

Now that she's back in school, I put the kibosh on that, and after some protests (enraged screeching and performative despair), she's mostly been cool with it. So much so that this Sunday, while I was having a horrible day ATS and watching Jonathan Taylor's fantasy value evaporate before my eyes, she, of her own accord, took to her long-neglected Raspberry Pi (without internet) to write a short story. 

But her room is right next to my office where I watch the games, so she kept coming in and interrupting my concentration to ask how to spell various words or whether she had the apostrophes in the right places. With every ill-boding bounce on the field, I felt myself get more and more annoyed, only to hear my door click open with another question, just as I was trying to mute a commercial or toggle to another game. 

My instinct was to snap at her, point out I was working and yell at her to stop interrupting, but she was doing something I had hoped when I bought the Pi six months ago. She's an only child, and it's been a struggle to convince her to find things to do on her own when we're busy. But here she was, doing something creative without being asked, and I knew I had to suck it up and patiently answer her spelling questions, my anguished emotional state notwithstanding. 

It occurred to me that this person standing here, who is always around asking for my attention, appears to be distracting me from my work, but in fact, it is the game (and its implications for me professionally and with respect to my online persona) that is the distraction. For some reason, my emotional investment in the games was larger than my emotional investment in my daughter's spelling question, and I had to pull myself out of that state with some effort not to undermine her enthusiasm for the story. 

The games only went further south from there. I was 2-7 ATS, and down big in all three late ones, with Jimmy Garoppolo going in two leagues and George Kittle in another, and the anguished feeling came back with a vengeance. My daughter was already asleep, so she couldn't bother me, but the contrast between football and its imaginary implications and the reality of a kid with a spelling question stuck with me. We invest so much into these personas we carry around, our opinions, our track records of being right or wrong, our identifications with different processes or schools of thought. It was the eve of the presidential election too, one in which people seem to be especially caught up in a similar kind of flag-planting and tribal allegiance signaling. Our online personas seem important before the big event, there are many important takes to have and to debunk, and look how much is at stake! 

But US national politics are so outsized that the individual's contribution to the discourse or the electorate via a vote is almost infinitesimal. That's not to say you shouldn't vote your conscience or speak your mind, but it's obviously not where the balance of your controllable fate lies. I was lucky -- by some miracle for one day my daughter chose to do something creative rather than looking for a distraction, and I was only narrowly able to recognize it and not screw it up, like quarterback escaping the rush and throwing a wobbly duck that finds a wide open receiver for a key first down. It's reality that needs our attention, not this imaginary world into which social media algos are hell bent on sucking us ever more deeply.

My thoughts were interrupted by Phillip Lindsay scampering for a 55-yard TD, bringing the Broncos to 24-10. Then somehow Nick Foles (looking like Joe Flacco's decaying remains for three quarters) led the Bears on a touchdown drive to pull within three (they were getting 3.5), and the Broncos scored again to make it 24-17. Even the 49ers mounted a comeback, though theirs fell short, and I went 2-1 ATS in the afternoon, won the Sunday and Monday night games, to salvage a bad, but survivable 6-8 week. DK Metcalf and Alvin Kamara did their jobs, and I also got a much-needed win in the NFFC Primetime despite having Baker Mayfield as my QB.

It would be farfetched to claim my fortune changed for the better on account of my attention shift, but I won't rule it out, either. 

Week 9 Sporcle Quiz

Apropos of Dalvin Cook and Alvin Kamara's huge per-game production this year, can you name every running back who averaged 25-plus PPR points in a season (min five games?)

Guessing The Lines

I'm pretty close to the market this week, with only the Chiefs and Titans as major outliers. I'll have more thoughts as the lines move in Beating the Book tomorrow. 

Week 8 Observations

• The Cowboys-Eagles game was a tough watch, and that was the 40-minute edited version in which I had Jalen Reagor, the Eagles defense and the Eagles minus 7.5. I also had Carson Wentz, who turned it over four times, and couldn't step into a single throw and CeeDee Lamb (5-4-27, 1-19-0) who appeared to be off the field more than usual.
• Ezekiel Elliott (19-63-0, 2-1-10) looks like himself, only without much blocking, few red-zone or goal-line looks and less use as a receiver.
• It wasn't entirely his fault, but Ben DiNucci looked bad. It would take a heroic effort to make this offense work against a solid defense, and he wasn't up to the task.
• Michael Gallup (12-7-61) got the work, but didn't do much with it, while Amari Cooper (5-1-5) did nothing. No one is safe here, and I suspect it'll only get slightly better when Andy Dalton returns.
• Boston Scott (15-70-0, 2-2-9) is shifty and makes nice cuts, but he's not nearly as explosive as Miles Sanders, and he doesn't break a lot of tackles.
• Travis Fulgham (7-6-78-1) is still the team's No. 1 WR, though Reagor (6-3-16-1, two-point conversion, one carry for six yards) got involved right away. Dallas Goedert saw only one target in his return.
• Mike McCarthy has gotten wise to analytics this year, but who on earth did he try a trick play for a 10-yard loss when the Cowboys, up two, were bludgeoning the Eagles with the running game midway through the third quarter?
• Thank God for the late fumble-return TD. As I said I had the Eagles minus 7.5 and also their defense, and I needed that cover like Gollum needed the ring.
• I was staring down the barrel of 2-8 ATS when two of the afternoon games miraculously turned around, and I might have gotten a push on the third, had the refs not called a preposterous unnecessary roughness penalty for a hit on Russell Wilson who faked a slide to get extra yards, then in fact slid right into the defender's oncoming hit. I'm still enraged at how both the announcers (and that chimpanzee Scott Hanson) justified the call, saying something to the effect of, "Jimmy Ward needs to know better."
• I picked up and started Jimmy Garoppolo in two leagues, and while his lingering ankle injury possibly explains his poor play, maybe he should have sat this one out in that case. It was like trough Eli Manning, and Manning should have been out of the league by 2015.
• George Kittle (foot) is likely out for the year, and Garoppolo (ankle) now for six weeks. It's incredible how many top players the 49ers have lost.
• Metcalf (15-12-161-2) is such a monster, and his day could have been even bigger had he and Russell Wilson connected on his final deep throw to the end zone. Think peak Terrell Owens with more speed, or Julio Jones with an extra 10 pounds of muscle.
• Forget about handicapping the 49ers running backs. JaMycal Hasty got most of the work, but was ineffective and nearly lost a fumble. Jerick McKinnon's passing game involvement gives him a modicum of floor, that is, unless they've decided to give him some unannounced rest.
• Nick Foles looked like trough Joe Flacco for much of the game, but the Saints defense isn't what it used to be, or maybe it is again what is used to be for the better part of a decade. Hats off to BDN for mounting the spread-covering comeback, though.
• David Montgomery broke off a 38-yard run, but otherwise lacked the burst to turn a small hole into a large gain. No one fights harder for a quarter yard when you need three at the goal-line though.
• Allen Robinson (7-6-87-1), Anthony Miller (11-8-73) and Darnell Mooney (6-5-69-1) are a narrow passing game tree, but it's planted in a desert and infested with a fungus.
• Props to Javon Wims for his senseless ejection.
• Kamara's floor is 2019 Christian McCaffrey-esque, but he hasn't been able to get into the end zone of late. I'm not concerned. It's hard to square watching the speed at which he plays and his 4.56 40 at the NFL Combine.
• What an epic cover by the Broncos. Phillip Lindsay is so much faster than Melvin Gordon, but I appreciated the courtesy of six dump-off receptions to Gordon that went nowhere for my fantasy team.
• Mike Williams is so massive he doesn't need to be open, and Justin Herbert has the arm, and the courage, to get him the ball down the field.
• I made the Ravens -3.5 my best bet, and I was feeling pretty good at halftime up 17-7, with the Steelers only points coming on a pick six. But Lamar Jackson turned the ball over four times, and the Steelers prevented him from doing too much damage with his legs – his one great TD run was called back due to a hold. In the end, the Ravens averaged 5.8 yards per play while the Steelers mustered only four, not counting the 110 to 30 disparity in penalty yards.
• The loss of Pro Bowl left tackle Ronnie Stanley for the season is big, though, especially with Jackson's regression. The Ravens now strike me as a long shot to unseat the Chiefs, and the Steelers and Titans are probably better too, though Ben Roethlisberger also looked shaky against a good defense.
• Tua Tagovailoa's debut was uneventful – he attempted only 22 passes for 93 yards and wasn't asked to do much. The one trait I noticed was an uncannily quick release on his throws which should be an advantage, though to what extent I can't yet tell.
• Jared Goff attempted 61 passes, so don't get excited about his 355 passing yards (5.8 YPA.) Accordingly, Cooper Kupp got a whopping 21 targets, but for only 110 yards.
• Darrell Henderson (8-4-70, 2-1-11) was running well early, but left the game with a thigh injury, giving Cam Akers (9-35-0, 1-1-19) a shot.
• Patrick Mahomes got 416 yards and five passing TDs without breaking a sweat. Mecole Hardman (9-7-96-1) seems to be a bigger part of the passing attack the last two weeks and could be a difference maker (or a zero) going forward. But we're starting to see the upside.
• Travis Kelce (12-8-109) and Tyreek Hill (6-4-98-2) both had big games, but we've still yet to see a Week 1, 2019 Sammy Watkins style monster game from anyone on the team yet.
• Clyde Edwards-Helaire split the work evenly with Le'Veon Bell, and neither did much. I know people were expecting a revenge game by Bell, but considering the Jets paid him a ton of money for not much and let him go to the Super Bowl favorite, I'm not sure how much beef he could possibly have with them.
• There's really nothing left to say about the Jets.
• I foolishly took the Packers minus 6.5, and I knew immediately it was a mistake. I'm just glad they lost outright. If you're not going to cover for me, you don't deserve the win.
• I'm starting to regret drafting Michael Thomas over Dalvin Cook (30-163-3, 3-2-63-1.) Cook was the entire offense, but it was enough.
• Davante Adams (12-7-53-3) is a monster fantasy option. But the Packers need someone who can actually stretch the field.
• I was hoping Jonathan Taylor (11-22-0, 3-2-9) would turn out to be Adrian Peterson, but now I'd take Leonard Fournette because Trent Richardson, only without the useful cosmetic rookie-year production, is emerging as the comp. Jordan Wilkins (20-89-1, 1-1-24) and Nyheim Hines (5-8-0, 5-3-54-2) did all the scoring, and Trey Burton got another rushing touchdown late as a kick in the ass on the way out the door. I don't see how this isn't a three-way timeshare going forward, assuming Taylor isn't minimized further.
• Kenny Golladay left the game with a hip injury without the courtesy of a single catch. The Lions ran the ball only 13 times, while passing 42.
• The Raiders beat up on the Browns in a wind-marred matchup with very little passing. Josh Jacobs (31-128-0) was the only fantasy player of note.
• I wisely started Mayfield (nine points) in a game with sustained 25 mph winds over Sam Darnold (8.75) this week.
• I really needed that Jarvis Landry TD that was overturned, though. He actually had a second near-catch in the end zone that was knocked out of his hands too.
• If Tua turns out to be good, it should be quite a QB class with Joe Burrow and Justin Herbert already looking like stars.
• Giovani Bernard (15-62-1, 4-3-16-1) had a big fantasy game, even while ceding 10 carries to Samaje Perine who also got a short rushing TD.
• I sat A.J. Green (5-2-19) for CeeDee Lamb and Darius Slayton. Green can't make a play, and Burrow will increasingly turn to Tee Higgins (9-6-78), Tyler Boyd (7-6-67-1) and Auden Tate (7-7-65)  in his stead.
• The Titans had a great match-up on paper, but looked sluggish after last week's war against Pittsburgh.
• D'Onta Foreman is like Derrick Henry-lite.
• I had the Patriots plus 3.5, so Cam Newton's game-sealing fumble was actually good for me, as it avoided the possibility of overtime, but I was still disappointed to see it. This Bills team isn't doing any damage in the playoffs, and the Newton Pats, if they ever got things to click, would be far more interesting as a storyline.
• Damien Harris (16-102-1) is the early-down back of choice, it seems, though Sony Michel could be back next week.
• It's been ugly for Josh Allen since his monster start, though weather was a factor Sunday.
• Devin Singletary (14-86-0, 1-1-6) and Zach Moss (14-81-2) are splitting work evenly, but Moss got both touchdowns.
• Troy Aikman, whose announcing has vastly improved over the last half decade, in my opinion, actually advocated for the Bears to go for it on 4th-and-2 from their own 20-yard line, down three with three minutes left in the third quarter. I didn't necessarily disagree, but it's amazing how far we've come where a one-time apologist for the surrender punt has now been radicalized.
• Daniel Jones has struggled with turnovers and sacks over his first two years, but in his defense he was the most pressured QB in the league coming into the game, and he had made some big throws and plays with his legs. But this was the worst game I've ever seen him play. Not only did he throw two senseless picks, but he missed a wide open Darius Slayton on at least two would-be big plays, didn't check down to a wide open Dion Lewis and this despite the Giants doing a great job up front against a tough defense. I've always defended the guy, but the Giants need to get a QB in the first round next year if there's a good one available when they pick.
• Wayne Gallman (12-44-0, 1-1-18) looked competent, hitting holes and running decisively against the league's top rush defense.
• Evan Engram (10-5-61) made one nice catch and run at the sideline, but often he wasn't open when Jones targeted him. Sterling Shepard (10-8-74) was good on the short stuff, and it was unclear, despite the announcer's insistence, whether he had any chance to catch up to  Jones' overthrow on a deep ball.
• Slayton (9-5-56) had a huge catch and run on a busted fourth down play that kept the game alive, had a ton of air yards and torched the Tampa secondary all day. Jones just couldn't get enough air under the ball on one play and didn't see him breaking free on the other.
• Tom Brady had all day to throw and largely took what was given to him.
• Ronald Jones (7-23-0) got work early and even caught four passes for 23 yards, but didn't see much action late, after a fumble due to a low throw that was more Brady's fault than his. Leonard Fournette (15-52-0, 6-3-19) wasn't effective, either, but saw a lot of work in the second half with the Bucs trailing.
• Mike Evans (7-5-55-1) and Rob Gronkowski (4-4-41-1) led the team, while Jaydon Mickens (8-5-36) and Scotty Miller (6-3-35) had targets, but probably won't for long with Antonio Brown arriving next week and Chris Godwin at some point soon.
• The Bucs secondary got exposed, something better teams will exploit.
• The refs were abominable, and at least four terrible calls went against the Giants, a phantom hold that called back a first-down run, a ridiculous personal foul on a DB when Cameron Brate ran into him, a shaky PI and the picked-up PI flag on the game-tying two-point conversion.