Box Score Breakdown: Snaps, Routes and Air Yards from the Wild Card Round

There's no way around it: the first round of the playoffs were a disappointment. The Rams and Lions gave us a great game, but none of the others came down to the wire and most were done by midway through the fourth quarter. Below I'll probably focus a little more on the teams that advanced, as that's what matters for those of you still playing DFS and/or some other form of fantasy contest (or just prop betting).

Vocab/Index

• DB = QB dropbacks = pass attempts + sacks
• RTs = Routes
• RT% = Percentage of team dropbacks on which the player ran a route
• aDOT = Average Depth of Target
• AY = Air Yards
• TS SZN = Percentage of team targets this season
• AY SZN = Percentage of team air yards this season

Personnel Groupings

• 11 = 1 RB / 1 TE / 3 WR
• 12 = 1 RB / 2 TE / 2 WR
• 21 = 2 RB / 1 TE / 2 WR

Any RB/WR/TE with a target, carry or snap share of at least 10 percent is listed below. Any personnel grouping used on at least 10 percent of snaps is listed, in addition to rates for 11 and 12 personnel (by far the two most popular sets league-wide).

Browns (14) at Texans (45) 

Browns Personnel: 11 - 76% / 12 - 13%

70 Plays — 50 DBs — 6.6 aDOT — 34-of-46 for 307 yards — 1 TD, 2 INTs, 4 sacks

• WR David Bell replaced Cedric Tillman (concussion) and caught each of his eight targets for 54 yards, while Marquise Goodwin ran just 11 routes as the No. 4 receiver.
  • Bell took two-thirds of his snaps in the slot, after mostly lining up outside the previous few weeks (when Amari Cooper and/or Elijah Moore were unavailable). 
• WR Amari Cooper got 97% of snaps after missing two games with a heel injury. The Texans held him to 59 yards this time, 206 yards shy of his total from the Week 16 meeting between these teams.
• RB Jerome Ford got a bit more playing time than usual (60%), and No. 3 back Pierre Strong (back) was inactive.
  • Kareem Hunt was Cleveland's fantasy star with a pair of TDs despite only 35 total yards.
• The Browns never pulled their starters, except for leading receiver David Njoku, who played only six of 18 snaps in the fourth quarter.
  • Pretty stupid, considering a serious injury in January could impact availability in September. Did Kevin Stefanski not see what happened to Bradley Chubb just a couple weeks prior?
• RB Jerome Ford and WR Elijah Moore both went out with a whimper. They're strong candidates to have lesser roles next season.

Texans Personnel: 11 - 43% / 12 - 16% / 21 - 27% / 22 - 14%

44 Plays — 22 DBs — 8.7 aDOT — 17-of-22 for 280 yards — 3 TDs, 0 INT, 0 sacks

• When a team runs 44 plays, it usually means they got their butts kicked and the opponent dominated possession. In this case, however, the culprits were a pair of pick-sixes and Houston having some quick-strike scoring drives, i.e., the opposite of being dominated.
  • As a Ravens fan, I'm nervous. C.J. Stroud is either the best rookie QB ever or second behind Dan Marino, and he didn't look overwhelmed back in Week 1 at Baltimore even with the Texans losing 25-9. It wasn't a close game, but that's largely because the Texans struggled in/near the red zone and couldn't run the ball at all. Stroud was competent (in his first career start), completing 28 of 44 passes for 242 yards against what we now know to be the best defense in the NFL.
• The Texans pulled a lot of starters after RB Devin Singletary's 19-yard touchdown stretched the lead to 31 early in the fourth quarter.
  • At that point, Singletary had 16 of the 17 RB opportunities and 83% snap share.
  • RB Dameon Pierce played only one snap before garbage time, with Dare Ogunbowale taking seven (all on third downs).
• WR Noah Brown suffered a shoulder injury on the opening drive and was placed on injured reserve Monday.
  • John Metchie led the Houston WRs in snaps, though Nico Collins had a much larger route share.
  • TE Brevin Jordan got more playing time, with Houston using 12 personnel far more than usual. Jordan took a short pass for a 74-yard TD in the second quarter.
    • TE Dalton Schultz got his usual workload in terms of snap share, but his route share was down a bit (59%) and he was targeted just once (for a TD, of course).

Stock ⬆️:   RB Devin Singletary / WR John Metchie

Stock ⬇️:   QB Joe Flacco / RB Jerome Ford / WR Elijah Moore

  Browns Injuries 🚑: LG Joel Bitonio (high ankle sprain)  

  Texans Injuries 🚑: WR Noah Brown (shoulder - IR) / LB Denzel Perryman (ribs)

Dolphins (7) at  Chiefs (26) 

Dolphins Personnel: 11 - 54% / 12 - 19% / 21 -24%

59 Plays — 41 DBs — 7.0 aDOT — 20-of-39 for 199 yards — 1 TD, 1 INT, 2 sacks

• WR Jaylen Waddle played the most snaps of any Miami WR in his first game back from a high-ankle sprain. He may not have been his usual self, but it at least suggests he should have a normal offseason.
• I'm surprised Waddle and Tyreek Hill ran fewer routes than Cedrick Wilson. I know Mike McDaniel's strategy is to use his top guys on fewer plays and have them expend more energy per snaps/route, but it's still weird to see a healthy superstar like Hill at 66% snap share and 61% route share in a playoff game. Not that it would've mattered in this one...
  • FWIW, Hill and Waddle didn't play the final drive. They were at 70% and 72% snap shares, respectively, before that.
•  RB Raheem Mostert was the lead runner in his return from a two-game absence, though he didn't have much success and ended up taking less than half the snaps.
  • Jeff Wilson got 10 of his 13 snaps in the fourth quarter.

Chiefs Personnel: 11 - 61% / 12 - 13% /13 - 24%

75 Plays — 41 DBs — 7.9 aDOT — 23-of-41 for 262 yards — 1 TD, 0 INT, 0 sacks

• RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire got the final four carries/snaps, including a lost fumble. Before that, Isiah Pacheco handled 75% snap share and 25 of the 29 RB opportunities.
• WR Rashee Rice was fantastic again, with a TD on the opening drive and gains of 39 and 28 yards on intermediate passes.
  • He still saw shallow targets, overwhelmingly, but it's promising that he's been efficient with the deep and intermediate looks the past month, albeit without getting many.
  • Rice played 87% of snaps before the fourth quarter, more than even TE Travis Kelce (84%)
  • Regardless of what happens the rest of this month, Rice should be a second-round fantasy pick next year.
• Rice and TE Travis Kelce were the only Chiefs at two-thirds route share or better. Justin Watson was a distant No. 3 with 63% route share and two targets.
  • Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Mecole Hardman essentially split the No. 3 receiver role and got the deep looks (none successful), with Richie James also playing a bit and No. 2 TE Noah Gray taking about half the snaps.
    • WR Kadarius Toney (hip) missed another game.

Stock ⬆️:   WR Rashee Rice 

Stock ⬇️:   QB Tua Tagovailoa

  Dolphins Injuries 🚑: S DeShon Elliott (calf)

  Chiefs Injuries 🚑: DT Derrick Nnadi (elbow) 

Packers (48) at Cowboys (32) 

Packers Personnel: 11 - 52% / 12 - 48%

54 Plays — 21 DBs — 10.9 aDOT — 16-of-21 for 272 yards — 3 TDs, 0 INT, 0 sacks

• The Packers used 12 personnel nearly half the time, easily a season high, in TE Luke Musgrave's second game back from injured reserve. However, Musgrave got just 28% of snaps and 29% of routes, with Ben Sims and Josiah Deguara also playing some (as blockers).
• It's unclear if there's a true superstar among the bunch, but it's incredible how many competent pass catchers Green Bay has acquired the past two years. Last season they drafted Christian Watson (Round 2) and Romeo Doubs (Round 4). This year they got Musgrave (Round 2), Jayden Reed (Round 2), Tucker Kraft (Round 3) and Dontayvion Wicks (Round 5), plus they picked up Seahawks 2022 seventh-round pick Bo Melton and added Malik Heath (Ole Miss' leading receiver in 2022) as an undrafted free agent.
  • I thought Doubs might end up the odd man out, long term, but then he had the best day of his career in the most important game of his career, roasting the highly regarded Dallas secondary repeatedly.
• The Packers had five WRs play at least 40% of snaps and none with more than 69%.
  • Jayden Reed and Christian Watson played less than usual. That's partly due to WR depth but also because Watson missed the past month with a heel injury and Reed mostly plays the slot (i.e., he's the odd man out in 12 personnel, which the Packers used far more than in previous weeks).
• RB Aaron Jones got 73% of snaps and 19 of 22 RB touches before the fourth quarter.
  • RB Emanuel Wilson supplanted Patrick Taylor as the No. 2 back while AJ Dillon (neck) missed a second straight game.
  • Jones is the opposite of washed up, despite being a fantasy bust this year. He'll probably be drafted earlier in 2024 than he was in 2023, despite being a 29-year-old RB coming off a season in which he missed six full games and parts of others (and scored only three TDs).
• Kraft got way more playing time than Musgrave, nearly tripling his snap and route counts.
  • Musgrave made the most of his snaps, including being left wide open for a long TD.

Cowboys Personnel: 11 - 87% / 12 - 3%

89 Plays — 64 DBs — 8.4 aDOT — 41-of-60 for 403 yards — 3 TDs, 2 INTs, 4 sacks

• The Cowboys fell behind 27-0, then scored a TD on the final play of the first half and 25 more points in the second half. Their play volume reached rare territory, as the Packers had a bunch of quick scoring drives (plus a pick-six) and the Cowboys being in hurry-up mode the entire second half boosted overall volume.
• WR Michael Gallup and TE Jake Ferguson were bright spots on an otherwise grim day.
  • Gallup topped 100 yards for the first time all season and more than doubled the route share of Jalen Tolbert, with whom he'd previously been splitting the No. 3 WR role.
• RB Tony Pollard won't be getting the franchise tag again. But don't be shocked if he has the season in 2024 that many expected in 2023; he suffered a major leg injury last January and may be stronger/faster next year.
  • Other key impending FAs for Dallas include LT Tyron Smith, C Tyler Biadasz and CB Stephon Gilmore. The team is currently $16 million over the cap for 2024, but that can be remedied easily enough by converting base salaries into bonuses for Dak Prescott ($29 million base salary), G Zack Martin ($18 million), DE DeMarcus Lawrence ($10 million), CB Trevon Diggs ($11 million) and RT Terence Steele ($7.25 million).
  • Potential cap casualties include Lawrence ($10 million savings), Gallup ($9.5 million) and Brandin Cooks ($8 million).
    • Gallup figures to be released unless he accepts a pay cut. Lawrence and Cooks are probably more valuable than the cap savings, but that doesn't necessarily mean they are safe.
• Early 2024 Fantasy TE Rankings
  1. Travis Kelce
  2. Sam LaPorta
  3. Mark Andrews
  4. Trey McBride 
  5. George Kittle
  6. David Njoku
  7. Jake Ferguson
  8. Brock Bowers
  9. Dalton Kincaid
  10. Evan Engram
  11. Kyle Pitts
  12. T.J. Hockenson (ACL)
  13. Darren Waller
  14. Dallas Goedert
  15. Cole Kmet
  16. Dalton Schultz
  17. Pat Freiermuth
  18. Michael Mayer
  19. Tucker Kraft
  20. Cade Otton

Stock ⬆️:   WR Romeo Doubs / TE Jake Ferguson

Stock ⬇️:   QB Dak Prescott / WR Jayden Reed

  Packers Injuries 🚑: CB Jaire Alexander (ankle)    

  Cowboys Injuries 🚑: TE Peyton Hendershot (foot/ankle)

Rams (23) at Lions (24) 

Rams Personnel: 11 - 100%

55 Plays — 38 DBs — 9.3 aDOT — 25-of-36 for 367 yards — 2 TDs, 0 INT, 2 sacks

• This was the lowest volume game of wild-card weekend, with both teams running just 55 plays. There weren't many incompletions (16), and the typically high-volume period inside of the two-minute warnings didn't end up providing much (though the rest of the game was quite exciting).
• RB Kyren Williams got 85% of snaps in the first half but then was evaluated for a concussion in the third quarter and injured his hand in the fourth quarter.
  • Williams cleared concussion protocol, but the hand/wrist injury didn't look great. It shouldn't impact his offseason the way a serious lower-body injury might.
• WR Puka Nacua reasserted himself as the No. 1 threat for Los Angeles, while Cooper Kupp mostly just caught short stuff.
  • Nacua should be drafted ahead of Kupp next year, quite possibly in Round 1.
• TE Davis Allen got some playing time and had a big catch even before Tyler Higbee's knee injury in the fourth quarter.
  • Lions S Kerby Joseph should chill out a bit. There's about a four/five-foot gap between a tight end's head and his knees... that's where you should hit the guy when possible. And maybe don't celebrate when it's clear you just injured someone....

Lions Personnel: 11 - 67% / 12 - 20%

55 Plays — 30 DBs — 5.6 aDOT — 22-of-27 for 277 yards — 1 TD, 0 INT, 3 sacks

• RB Jahmyr Gibbs had some big plays, including a TD, but he played only 33% of snaps.
  • Gibbs didn't play any snaps in the fourth quarter. David Montgomery took seven and Craig Reynolds got the other three. No injury was reported, but it's possible that's what happened.
• WR Josh Reynolds bumped up to 87% snap share and caught five of seven targets for 80 yards, with Jameson Williams at only 69% snap share and two targets (though Williams got 87% route share).
• TE Sam LaPorta was targeted just three times but handled his usual snap/route shares and scored a TD.

Stock ⬆️:   WR Josh Reynolds / TE Davis Allen

Stock ⬇️:   TE Tyler Higbee

  Rams Injuries 🚑: TE Tyler Higbee (ACL tear) / RB Kyren Williams (hand)

Steelers (17) at Bills (31) 

Steelers Personnel: 11 - 78% / 12 - 16%

63 Plays — 40 DBs — 7.8 aDOT — 22-of-39 for 229 yards — 2 TDs, 1 INT, 2 sacks

• The backfield split shifted a bit more toward Najee Harris, who got 15 of the 25 RB opportunities and 56% of snaps.
  • The surprising part is that Harris got more snaps (and easily more routes) in negative game script. Jaylen Warren typically has played more when the Steelers are forced to throw a lot.
• WR Allen Robinson suffered a concussion late in the third quarter and was replaced by Calvin Austin.
  • Robinson is scheduled for a non-guaranteed $10 million base salary next year in the final season of his contract. There's obviously no way he sees that money, and if he wants to keep playing he may need to accept a vet-minimum deal and compete for a backup job.
• TE Pat Freiermuth had his second best game of the season but still wasn't quite in an every-down role, handling 68% of snaps and 70% of routes.

Bills Personnel: 11 - 56% / 12 - 8% / 6OL - 35%

66 Plays — 32 DBs — 6.3 aDOT — 21-of-30 for 203 yards — 3 TDs, 0 INT, 2 sacks

• Khalil Shakir and Trent Sherfield both played more than usual with Gabe Davis (knee) inactive. Shakir ran 10 more routes, however, while Sherfield was on the field for more run plays (no surprise given that he's known for blocking and special teams).
  • Shakir put the game away with an incredible catch-and-run TD in the fourth quarter. Dude can play. And Davis is in a contract year.
• TE Dalton Kincaid was one of the stars of the night, but he got only 55% of snaps and 63% of routes, both numbers being down some compared to Week 18.
  • That's partially because the Bills continued their frequent use of six-OL formations. Dawson Knox's role remains much smaller than it was the past few seasons.
• RB James Cook got 62% of snaps and 22 of the 36 RB opportunities. His role the past few weeks looks like the September version; getting about 60% of snaps and opportunities. For a few weeks there he was getting a slightly smaller share of snaps but more of the opportunities, oddly.
  • Ty Johnson has moved ahead of Latavius Murray as the No. 2 back.

Stock ⬆️:   WR Khalil Shakir

Stock ⬇️:   RB Latavius Murray

  Steelers Injuries 🚑: WR Allen Robinson (concussion) / CB Joey Porter (concussion)   

  Bills Injuries 🚑: LB Terrel Bernard (ankle) / CB Christian Benford (knee) / CB Taron Johnson (head)

Eagles (9) at Buccaneers (32) 

Eagles Personnel: 11 - 77% / 12 - 23%

53 Plays — 38 DBs — 7.8 aDOT — 25-of-35 for 250 yards — 1 TD, 0 INT, 3 sacks

• Julio Jones played all eight snaps in the first quarter but then suffered a concussion in the second quarter, which pushed Quez Watkins up to the No. 2 WR role and Olamide Zaccheaus to No. 3.
• Single-game collapses like the Patriots-Falcons Super Bowl are more memorable, but this is right up there with the 2011 Red Sox as one of the worst late-season choke jobs in recent sports history.
• RB D'Andre Swift is scheduled for free agency this offseason, as are backups Rashaad Penny and Boston Scott.
  • The Eagles have a surprisingly good cap situation for a team that already gave its QB a big contract and rosters a bunch of big-name veterans.

Buccaneers Personnel: 11 - 54% / 12 - 33% / 6OL - 13%

69 Plays — 40 DBs — 8.5 aDOT — 22-of-36 for 357 yards — 3 TDs, 0 INT, 4 sacks

• TE Cade Otton led the team in targets/catches/yards after a quiet couple of months to finish out the season.
• RB Rachaad White got his normal workload, with 71% of snaps and 21 of the 30 RB opportunities (70%).
  • Chase Edmonds has been a bit more of a factor the past month but is still a distant No. 2 to White.
• WRs Trey Palmer and David Moore split the No. 3 role, which Palmer previously had to himself for nearly the entire season.
  • Both scored long-distance TDs on intermediate passes, helped immensely by disgraceful tackling from the Eagles.
• The Bucs might be the NFL's healthiest team right now. They lost C Ryan Jensen and WR Russell Gage to season-ending injuries this summer but otherwise completed Monday's game without any reported injuries to key players. Even the backups are healthy, apart from DL Mike Greene, who may come back from a calf injury soon.

Stock ⬆️:   TE Cade Otton

Stock ⬇️:   QB Jalen Hurts

  Eagles Injuries 🚑: WR Julio Jones (concussion) / CB Darius Slay (back) / S Sydney Brown (ACL)