This article is part of our College Football Picks series.
College Football Picks: Iowa vs. UCLA
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The Iowa Hawkeyes and the UCLA Bruins will clash in a Big 10 matchup at the Rose Bowl Friday evening. The Hawkeyes are carrying a two-game winning streak into Pasadena, while the Bruins are coming off a narrow loss against Nebraska. While there aren't any playoff implications for this game, it's a key matchup for the Bruins in a quest for bowl eligibility. At 6-3, Iowa has that milestone already wrapped up.
Iowa vs. UCLA Betting Odds for Week 11
Spread: Iowa -5.5 (FanDuel Sportsbook), UCLA +6.5 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
Total: Over 44.5 (DraftKings Sportsbook), Under 45 (Caesars Sportsbook)
Moneyline: Iowa -225 (BetMGM), UCLA +196 (Caesars Sportsbook)
The spread was as high as -6.5 to begin the week, but public money has flowed to UCLA since and decreased the gap. The total has remained consistent throughout the week, and the ML has settled after some fluctuations earlier in the week.
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Iowa vs. UCLA Betting Picks for Week 11
Despite last week's loss, the Bruins are working into a groove after a shaky start for coach DeShaun Foster. They've pulled off a couple of decent wins and played to the final minute against Nebraska, but UCLA will need to win out to reach a bowl, and Iowa presents their stiffest test. As for Iowa, the Hawkeyes have entered an offensive renaissance of sorts after a long reputation for low scores and darlings for the Under. Last week's 42-10 blowout over Wisconsin is evidence of their improvement on offense. Iowa's defense is as stout as ever, ranking 20th in total defense. The offense is what differentiates the 2024 edition of Iowa from teams of years past. There are some questions about the quarterback position, which we'll outline in a moment.
The Bruins were dealt a very tough schedule in their inaugural year with the Big 10, and despite the stiff competition, they've managed to score a decent amount. The team's biggest issue is on defense, where they've given up an average of 28 points per game and rank 108th nationally in takeaways per game.
Cross-country travel has been a hot topic in betting circles, and the Hawkeyes have the disadvantage of flying to California on a short week. I think it's one reason why the spread is so narrow. While I don't think it will impact the line that much, the scenario compels me to make an additional bet on the Over, considering both team's ability to score. I'm going to make two wagers here, combining the Over with Iowa laying six points.
Iowa vs. UCLA Expert Picks: Iowa -5.5 (FanDuel Sportsbook) and OVER 44.5 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
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Iowa vs. UCLA Predictions for Week 11
The premier player to watch in this game is Iowa's Kaleb Johnson. The dynamic back is responsible for 19 touchdowns this year and is the catalyst that makes the offense tick. UCLA will need to find an answer for him, and it could be a long day if they fail to contain him. The bigger question for Iowa is who will hand Johnson the ball. Cade McNamara (concussion) is out, but after Brendan Sullivan's performance against Wisconsin, McNamara's tenure as the signal-caller is in jeopardy either way. Iowa's offensive line can provide time for any quarterback, but Sullivan looked poised in the pocket and was a more explosive passer overall.
Ethan Garbers is UCLA's top quarterback option, and he has certainly had his share of struggles. His TD/INT ratio of 10:9 is less than adequate, and the mistakes are largely due to a free-wheeling tendency to throw into coverage. His supporting cast hasn't been great, but thankfully, Garbers has upped his game over the past two weeks and is accomplishing more as a dual threat.
It's important to note that UCLA's rushing defense is ranked ninth nationally. allowing 100.9 rushing yards to the opposition. That's a great answer for Johnson, who is the lynchpin of Iowa's offense. Still, Iowa's defense will pose a big problem for Garbers and the UCLA offense. The Hawkeyes rank 20th in the country in Opponent Third Down Conversion Percentage (32.35%) and will force more than its share of three-and-outs. I favor the Over due to a sluggish defensive start for Iowa on the road, but I still believe they will put this game away.
Iowa 28-20
