College Football DFS Picks: Wednesday Night MACtion, Week 11

Welcome into our Wednesday night MACtion breakdown where we have a three-game slate. All three games should be competitive with every spread checking in at 2.0 points or fewer, and the totals are solid for a MAC slate with a range of 49.5 to 55.0. Kickoff is approaching so let's dig in.

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Matchup Info

Quarterback

Collin Schlee ($8,300) Kent State at Bowling Green

This is a slate where it's hard to scrimp and save at quarterback. Paying up for Schlee, the top-billed quarterback on the slate, is close to a must. Looking down the board, going for someone like Daniel Richardson is risky given that he's losing snaps to Jase Bauer and neither are cheap ($7,000+). 

With Schlee, he's averaging 36 pass attempts per game in conference play and draws a matchup against a Bowling Green defense that isn't overly intimidating. Bowling Green's offense could keep the pressure on Schlee and drive up his volume, too, as Kent State has the worst pass defense on the slate. To top it off, Schlee averages 12 rushing attempts in conference play. He's about as safe as it gets at quarterback tonight.

Cole Snyder ($7,500) Buffalo at Central Michigan

Buffalo's offense is functioning a lot differently than in years passed as the Bulls are up-tempo now (75.4 Plays/Gm, the same as SMU) and throw the ball 47 percent of the time compared to the 40 percent-or-less rate from 2019-21. Snyder dropped back 49 times against Ohio in Week 10 and has thrown 35 or more times on five occasions this season. We're buying the volume because the efficiency (6.7 YPA) has been middling at best. Central Michigan allows just 197 passing yards per game to conference foes, but the Chips are even stingier against the run so Buffalo could be dialing up a busy night for Snyder. 

Treyson Bourguet ($6,600) Western Michigan vs. Northern Illinois

Bourguet is effectively in a tier of his own. He has taken over as Western's QB and ceded minimal snaps to Mareyohn Hrabowski, a rushing threat, last week. Bourguet has attempted 60 passes over the last two weeks and was far more effective in Week 10 than he was in his first start. In his debut, Bourguet went 16-for-33 for 123 yards. Last week? 16-for-27 for 191 yards with a touchdown and a pick. Northern Illinois allows three passing touchdowns per game and 8.5 YPA to opposing quarterbacks, so this is a relatively favorable matchup for Bourguet.

Running Back

Lew Nichols ($6,900) Central Michigan vs. Buffalo

Nichols got back in the fold last week and though the results were mixed, he's worth a look again on this slate. For one, the volume was extremely encouraging; he took 28 carries following a two-game absence. His effectiveness was iffy; he averaged just 3.3 YPC and lost a pair of fumbles. Those were his first fumbles of the season, though, so it can be somewhat chalked up to rust. 

The concern for Nichols this evening is running quarterback Jase Bauer, who has forced his way into the rushing equation with back-to-back 109-yard outings. Bauer has run well enough to where he'll remain in the game plan especially considering Central Michigan's other injuries in the backfield, including Marion Lukes and Myles Bailey. 

Even with Bauer's emergence, Nichols still projects for a heavy workload against the worst rushing defense on the slate (170.2).

Harrison Waylee ($6,800) Northern Illinois at Western Michigan

After NIU had a fairly even split between Waylee and Antario Brown through the first eight weeks of the season, Waylee dominated the backfield work last week against Central Michigan with 20 carries for 136 yards while Brown posted six carries for 17 yards. 

Northern Illinois is down to its fourth quarterback, unless Rocky Lombardi makes the trip and suits up. With that, we can expect a run-heavy approach on the ground tonight. It wouldn't be shocking to see Brown be more involved this time around, but Waylee seems to be the NIU back to target. 

Jaison Patterson ($4,600) Bowling Green vs. Kent State

Ta'ron Keith is a factor in this backfield, especially in the passing game, but Patterson is establishing himself as the top rushing option. Over the last two games, Patterson has 28 carries for 157 yards compared to Keith's 15 rushes for 83 yards. Still, Patterson is listed $600 cheaper than his backfield counterpart and projects for more rushing work tonight against the second-worst run defense on the slate.

Wide Receiver

Ja'Shaun Poke ($4,900) Kent State at Bowling Green

This hinges a bit on whether Dante Cephas (lower body) is available, but even if Cephas plays, Poke checks in as a value at $4,900. Without Cephas last week, Poke's usage spiked with an absurd 18 targets. He turned that opportunity into 13 catches for 87 yards. Poke didn't play this season until Week 6 and didn't see his first targets until Week 7, so the overall season numbers belie his potential down the stretch. Coming into this season, Poke had caught 50 of 74 targets for 671 yards with four touchdowns. He has more explosiveness than what is shown in his season numbers to date and could be in line for another high-volume outing in what projects to be the highest-scoring game on the slate.

Odieu Hiliare ($5,100) Bowling Green vs. Kent State

Hiliare's target count spiked back into the double digits last week after he saw 4-to-6 targets in five straight games. His per-target efficiency was lacking at 5.1 but he reeled in nine of 10 targets to bolster his overall production. On a night where Kent State will likely be pushing the pace on the scoreboard, Hilaire could be the top option on a high-volume passing night for Bowling Green.

Justin Marshall ($5,300) Buffalo at Central Michigan

Quian Williams is getting peppered with targets of late with 9.3 on average over his last three games but whew the efficiency has been far from ideal. 28 targets in that span have produced 14 catches for 110 yards (3.9 YPT) and a touchdown. Marshall's catch rate hasn't been much better in that span (12 catches on 23 targets) but the per-target efficiency (7.5 YPT) has been far superior and he has logged a pair of scores in the last three games. Marshall works in both tournaments and cash games this evening. For those looking for a GPP play, Jamari Gassett ($4,300) has caught 27 of 32 targets this season and has averaged 10.9 YPT. He had a quiet outing against Ohio last week so roster percentage could be off of him a bit, but Gassett has a decent enough target share and is plenty efficient with his opportunities relative to his teammates.