Hello, friends! Prepare to be sick of me as I fill in for my esteemed colleague for the next three days along with my normal spots on Sunday and Monday! Better yet, prepare to gets those wallets fat for The Big Dance because I'm cooking right now.
After a 3-0 Monday, I'm "seeing the ball" very well right now with a 54-44 overall record here and a scorching hot end final few weeks of the regular season. This week and next week are my favorite two weeks of the college hoops schedule, even more than the tournament itself, and today is one of those great days with a fabulous mix of Power 5 ball and small conference tournaments. Time to see what Thursday's menu offers.
Top College Basketball Best Bets for Today
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Michigan Wolverines at Iowa Hawkeyes 
Yes yes, I know the spot screams Iowa. Michigan has the Big 10 title wrapped up, it is Senior Day in Iowa City, the Wolverines have Sparty on deck to finish the regular season and just lost L.J. Cason, blah blah blah. I don't care, I don't buy this Iowa team for a second, and this is a perfect contrarian spot. Every year, there are a handful of teams that are fraudulent, whose metrics outclass their performance. This year, Iowa is the poster child for that. The Hawkeyes are No. 23 in KenPom despite being 1-6 in Top 25 games. The Wolverines are a freight train that will defend Iowa's one-man show into a slow, painful death.
College Basketball Best Bet: Michigan -9 (Bet365)
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Fairfield Stags vs Manhattan Jaspers 
This is a first round game from the MAAC Tournament in Atlantic City. Fairfield started the conference season 0-4, a start that included a four-point loss at Manhattan. After figuring out their rotation, the Stags went 11-5 down the stretch including a 5-0 mark against teams outside the KenPom Top 300. One of those five wins was a 98-62 act of revenge on the Jaspers on January 14. In the other four wins, Fairfield won by 8, 6, 1, and 6, so they aren't blowing those teams out, but they got the job done. I think the Stags do it again today with a number that still has a bit of value.
College Basketball Best Bet: Fairfield -5 (Caesars)
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South Florida Bulls at Memphis Tigers 
Those of you that are faithful readers know I can't resist the wacky AAC, and it isn't even a Sunday! What a treat! For those unfamiliar, with two games left in the AAC regular season, the conference is dead last in home court advantage with home teams winning 46.3 percent of games. That's correct, home teams are under .500 in AAC play!
While UAB is the true poster child of this insanity, USF has just bullied the entire league all year, home or away. The Bulls beat Memphis by 21 in Tampa on February 19, and the Tigers might be even worse now, if that's possible. Memphis has lost six straight, guys are quitting the team, and it appears Penny has lost total control at this point.
The only thing that gives me pause here is USF can claim the AAC title outright with a win today, and teams in that spot have not been great this season. However, I'm not sure there is anything Memphis can do about it.
College Basketball Best Bet: USF -5.5 (Bet365)
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Thursday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Thursday, March 5:
- Michigan -9 (Bet365)
- Fairfield -5 (Ceasars)
- USF -5.5 (Bet365)
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball betting odds and props from multiple sources, check out the college basketball odds page on RotoWire.
